Due to the unique nature of the intelligence field, error of judgments can (and has) had catastrophic consequences. These errors are a result of complex decision making processes involved in the generation of intelligence products, affected by not only training and expertise, but by cognitive factors, particularly bias. The aim of this paper is to identify two different models of decision making (bounded rationality and intuitive decision making), the biases found in both models that affect the final intelligence product, and how these biases can be mitigated in order to avoid intelligence failures or minimise their impact. Intelligence analysts face complex problems, usually involving incomplete and ambiguous information, often under pressing time …show more content…
Representation bias is where individuals compare the similarity of a current situation to previous situations, and assesses the likelihood of potential consequences. The more similar the situations are to each other, the more similar the consequences and their impact are likely to be. As Able Archer was a routine operation, US analysts believed that the Soviets would continue with their usual response of solely monitoring the operation. However, this was clearly not the case due to the depth of the Soviet fear, and even when presented with evidence that the Soviets were readying their air forces, the Reagan administration dismissed the reaction. As US officials believed that Soviet perceptions, intentions and actions during previous Able Archer exercises were the same as the 1983 operation, and that the outcomes would also be the same, US intelligence fell into the trap of representation bias, and failed to appropriately interpret the intelligence products highlighting the danger of the new
In order to transform a local police agency into an intelligence-led organization, they go through several steps. The first, after strict training and funding is to task and coordination processes. The second is to make and develop the intelligence products to be used in the operations. Next is to begin the use of standardized training for all the people to be involved. Since some local agencies cannot afford to train every employee in this...
...these intelligence failures, more emphasis is now placed on the creation of intelligence products used on the battlefield. All possible enemy courses of actions are now red teamed in an attempt to produce a much accurate analytical product.
Unable to find any two songs specific enough to compare I have decided to do a critical analysis essay on the show Archer, having just watched this show I was very interested in their writing, dialogue and underlying themes. They attack racism, sexism, women’s liberties, political discourse, and xenophobia in a refreshing way that can be mistaken by some as offensive and blunt. Especially in today’s society with the advancing in standards in political correctness, satirical shows such as Archer consistently toe the line and at times cross it and when these shows cross the line there is more often than not some form of outcry. However most of the intentions for most of these shows is comedy not aggression and with comedy often comes a platform
Jervis argues that decision-makers tend to fit incoming information into their existing theories and images. Basically perceiving what they want no matter what because their theories and images are set to let them only notice certain things. He uses the Russians as an example, like if a person believes the Russians are aggressive, then it is logical for him to be suspicious of their moves (Jervis 1968). Jervis state in his article War and Perceptions that these estimates, which arc logically independent, may be psychologically linked (Jervis 1988).
...our is then considered evidence of this malign intent. The ‘enemy image’ becomes resistant to change and extremely difficult to discredit. Therefore, information received by state leaders that is consistent with this ‘enemy image’ has to cross a much lower perceptual threshold to get the attention of the leader (Duelfer and Dyson, 2011). The subsequent consequence is that the decision-maker, usually the state leader, may then make a decision based on this information. The ‘enemy image’ has become so ingrained, and the response so automatic, that the state leader may then inadvertently misperceive the situation and consider the enemy to be posing a far greater threat than he/she actually is. President Bush fell victim to this process in his evaluation of the threat posed by Saddam Hussein and launched an invasion of Iraq on the basis of that misperception in 2003.
Available information concerning foreign countries, hostile or potentially hostile forces, or areas of operations is collected, processed, and analyzed in order to produce intelligence. The intelligence warfighting function allows the commander to plan, prepare, assess, and execute operations. Intelligence is a necessary process to conducting unified land operations because it provides support to commanders by disseminating information from all sources about the current operations and developing situations. Intelligence allows commanders to understand the situation and assist in decision making. The intelligence effort provides information to other warfighting functions and supports mission command’s decisions while conducting operations. (ADP 2-0, Page 1).
Human beings have to made decisions right from childhood stage but the complexity of the decisions to be made or the circumstances preceding a decision vary from simple personal decisions to being in a group making corporate decisions. Individual Decision Making involves arriving at the decision at a personal level without involving external persons or making the decision regardless of an external or group's view point. This is the common method of making decisions and it has been observed to be effective when input from external parties is not necessary or in circumstances when a person might find themselves in need of immediate decision in order to tackle a particular situation. For example a person who is driving a car needs to make decisions about what action to take as he drives along the road with regards to following the driving laws and how to respond to actions by other road users. In this situation, an individual utilizes the intuitive decision making process (Cottrell, 2009) which is based on the experience that he has gone through.
Intelligence researchers gather data, analyze information and seek clarification from other intelligence and law enforcement agencies. They regularly receive large volumes of incoming requests that they process through applying standard screening methods.
I want to work as an analyst for numerous reasons. Each day is a new story for an analyst. Each day that story, is to foresee, prepare for, and prevent tomorrow’s threats. Knowing that intelligence produced from my work could be used at the very highest levels of government
Intelligence is the ability to obtain and use knowledge and skills. Intelligence is what assists humans in thinking rationally, acting purposefully, and adapting to the environment. This is a broad description of intelligence. When it comes to specifying intelligence, there is much debate, especially when it comes to how to measure intelligence. There are IQ tests that produce a single intelligence. However, many argue that these tests are too vague and that these tests do not consider factors that play a role in an individual’s intelligence. While this is true, psychologists have used this test to conduct studies on what affects intelligence levels. Three significant factors that have been studied on and that are believed to
According to the School of Information Sciences and Technology at Penn State University, the Rational Model of decision-making, “requires comprehensive problem definition, an exhaustive search for alternatives, and thorough data collection and analysis. According to this model, information exchange and communication are unbiased, and accurate decision alternativ...
In order to see how artificial intelligence plays a role on today’s society, I believe it is important to dispel any misconceptions about what artificial intelligence is. Artificial intelligence has been defined many different ways, but the commonality between all of them is that artificial intelligence theory and development of computer systems that are able to perform tasks that would normally require a human intelligence such as decision making, visual recognition, or speech recognition. However, human intelligence is a very ambiguous term. I believe there are three main attributes an artificial intelligence system has that makes it representative of human intelligence (Source 1). The first is problem solving, the ability to look ahead several steps in the decision making process and being able to choose the best solution (Source 1). The second is the representation of knowledge (Source 1). While knowledge is usually gained through experience or education, intelligent agents could very well possibly have a different form of knowledge. Access to the internet, the la...
Who would have guessed that the once mere concept of artificial intelligence (AI) could actually be a reality in the year 2015? Artificial intelligence is the intelligence exhibited by machines or software. It is also the name of the academic field of study which studies how to create computers and computer software that are capable of intelligent behavior. But we can go even deeper into the topic and question: really what defines intelligence? In this day and age if you were to ask a child this question I’m sure it was greatly differ from a child’s answer thirty, twenty or even ten years ago. The technological world is ever-changing, growing exponentially and very quickly and this is causing extreme effects on the lives of every person on
The exhibition of intelligence by machines is known as artificial intelligence. In this era, machines have come a long way. They have been a part of our basic needs as well. People nowadays cannot survive without the advanced technology. One of the most advancing sectors in the present can be considered as Artificial intelligence. Whilst some believe that advancement in artificial intelligence is beneficial for the human beings, some people consider it as a step towards the apocalypse. From the age where science and technology could hardly ever be seen, we have now reached a point where machines are so vital that algorithms decide whether someone should get a job or not, whether someone can get into a college or not and even which location
This is the generation of artificial intelligence, which is the ability of computers to replicate human intelligence. This includes “the ability to interact with the environment through sensory means and the ability to make decisions in unforeseen circumstances” (Herzfeld). The field of artificial intelligence has been discussed for decades, but engineers are just now making advancements in the field. In 1950, Alan Turing claimed that artificial intelligence would exist “when a human communicating with a machine will not be able to distinguish the machine’s response from a human’s response” (Kile). While modern technology is very advanced and somewhat “intelligent,” it does not have all the abilities of humans. Therefore, the generation of artificial intelligence has not reached a peak and engineers must continue working to make computers smart. Although artificial intelligence is just becoming a reality, people have worried about its impact since it was first recognized as a