Critical Analysis: Hypotheses on Misperception

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According to Robert Jervis, for an actor to determine how he will act, he has to predict how other will act and how their actions will affect their values. The actor will develop an image and the intentions of others (Jervis 1968). He believes that misperception can rule over the mind of an actor, while ignoring accurate information. He develops fourteen hypotheses, seven on misperception and seven about perception Yes, I agree with Jervis’s hypotheses. Misperception of an actor of others causes others to misperceive as well. Jervis argues that decision-makers tend to fit incoming information into their existing theories and images. Basically perceiving what they want no matter what because their theories and images are set to let them only notice certain things. He uses the Russians as an example, like if a person believes the Russians are aggressive, then it is logical for him to be suspicious of their moves (Jervis 1968). Jervis state in his article War and Perceptions that these estimates, which arc logically independent, may be psychologically linked (Jervis 1988). Woods and Stout found that Saddam worked to project a well-defined, if multi-headed, public persona: the object of a cult of personality at home, modern deliverer of the ‘Arab Nation’ to the region, and regional hegemonic to the international community. As a result, many Western observers often saw him as the ‘Madman of the Middle East (Wood and Stout 2010). The American-Japanese crisis in 1940 gives an illustration of this also. For instance, national leaders may not have choices because of structural or systemic constraints, or because of their own cognitive processes. But if they see themselves as having only a single course of action, then their assessment... ... middle of paper ... ...e a better place if everyone would stop and think before making a decision base on their theories and image. Misperception may be coincidental to-rather than determinative of-the occurrence of war, because war can be an equilibrium outcome that results from specific configurations of actor preferences. Even if misperception does sometimes play a causal role in the outbreak of war, its impact is situational circumscribed. Works Cited Jervis, Robert. 1968. “Hypotheses on Misperception.” World Politics (April): 454-56. Jervis, Robert. 1988. “War and Misperception.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History (Spring): 675-700 Stein, Arthur A. 1982. "When Misperception Matters." World Politics (July): 505-26. Woods, Kevin M., Stout Mark E. 2010. “Saddam’s Perceptions and Misperceptions: The Case of ‘Desert Storm’.” The Journal of Strategic Studies (February): 5-41.

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