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Pitfalls of intuitive decision making
Cognitive bias flashcards
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I thoroughly enjoyed reading about Goldacre’s (2010) “Why Clever People Believe Stupid Things.” This article ultimately allowed me to not only understand the biases that individuals possess, but it also allowed me to better understand my own personal biases. Clever people may believe “stupid” things due to “intuition” and instinctive. All individuals encompass a unique set of opinions, sentiments, and, perceptions. This ultimately makes us biased. I truly enjoyed reading about the six main “traps”, and applying these fascinating ideas to my daily life. These ideas present how information may be evaluated poorly, and ultimately lead to misunderstanding and poor decisions. The first major idea is that we often see patterns where there are …show more content…
The next idea is one of my favorites. One of my professors from my previous college would always implore and reiterate that we, as humans, will inevitably regress to the mean. Things will eventually settle down, and return to normal; nothing is permanent. It is often difficult to be mindful that everything usually settles down and returns to normal throughout time. The next idea is our bias towards positive evidence. This is very true with many people. We tend to seek out information that agrees with our beliefs and ideas of this universe. We have all done this. I tend to also seek out information that confirms my beliefs. The next main idea is our bias towards previous beliefs. I have also succumbed to this bias. I often assess the actual quality of newfound evidence and information through my existing knowledge and beliefs. I am also automatically more critical or even skeptical of information that goes against my previous ideas or beliefs. Individuals do not enjoy being proven incorrect, so we tend to all seek or trust evidence that supports our sentiments and beliefs. The next idea is having available information. Most individuals, including myself, have a tendency to have more curiosity or
Furthermore, the authors aim to unfold the scientific logic of their analysis of the effects of hidden biases so people will be “better able to achieve the alignment,” between their behavior and intentions (Banaji and Greenwald, 2013) preface
The Zundel vs. Citron case explains bias as, “a state of mind that is in some way predisposed to a particular result or that is closed with regard to particular issues,” (Zundel vs. Citron). Due to the importance that bias can play in a decision, the courts have created a legal test to determine if it exists in any given situation. The test is, “what would an informed person, viewing the matter realistically and practically – and having thought the matter through –
The essay, “The Problem with New Data”, is written by Jon Carroll. In this essay he talks about the human behavior and how humans react differently with others. He explains how humans change their decisions quickly because they are weak. The purpose of this essay is to analyze how humans change their behavior toward certain things. Carroll argues that people belief and government pressure are the main reasons why people do not change their psychology and the way they think. Carroll points out these key points because these are the major issues of our society and what most people are having a hard time dealing with. He argues on the thinking and weaknesses of people and why they do not want to change those things.
Critical thinking skills in daily life can be the difference between a good decision and a bad decision. Skeptical thinking, likewise, is an important tool that many people use in order to discern between these decisions, and to make educated choices about their lives and the things that they choose to believe. As a consumer of science, I believe that it is important for people to have a repertoire of skeptical thinking skills, or tools, in order to make decisions deriving from the barrage of information (both false and true) that we absorb on a daily basis. I’ve chosen six skepticism tools from Carl Sagan’s article, The Fine Art of Baloney Detection, that I think are the most important for scientific purposes and for everyday life. These skills include discussing the matter at hand, ignoring position of power, personal detachment from the subject, a sound argument, an understanding of Occam’s Razor, and the ability to test the subject for falsities.
In his book, Everything is Obvious, Duncan Watt starts off reasonably well in explaining how certain beliefs or perceptions influence our way of thinking and decision making. These sets of beliefs are accumulated through past experiences, surrounding environments and cultures in which collectively form the philosophy of common sense. Though common sense is powerful tool that helps us navigate through our life smoothly without encumbering our brains into reflecting on every single detail. The author considers it as a set of fallible mental patterns that are invisible to us, yet have a powerful affect that extends to our way of thinking as well predicting the future of certain things in our life. In the book, Watt exposes the reality of common sense which convinces us that we know more than what we really do. Consequently, we keep making same mistakes and learning less from the past. "Bad things happen not because we forget to use our common sense, but rather because the incredible effectiveness of common sense in solving the problems of everyday life causes us to put more faith in it than it can bear."(Watt 23).
The brain is one of the most complex as well as one of the most vital organs of the human body. It's utter perplexity still causes the most astound thinkers to step back and contemplate the way it works. Every second the brain processes four-hundred billion bits of information, while only two-thousand of those bits people become aware of. One can also observe that with so much information to process, there is a plethora of information in the world that can be obtained than what is actually being perceived. Unknowingly, people criticize others and make judgments without even being aware of their perception. Although it is said that one can acquire the skills to make judgments that are unbiased and are constructed of a wide range or base of background knowledge, one simply does not have the time to think about thinking. People instinctively judge others constantly by their mere appearance despite the fact that it is considered immoral. It is so common that one does not even realize when they are doing it. In the grocery store, at work, at school; No matter where one may be, they are making snap judgments. The irony and truth of the matter is that a majority of the time, those subconscious decisions or judgments that one makes and are unbeknownst to them are strangely correct. (Hirshon)
Gladwell refers ‘thin slicing’ as the ability to make a fast conclusion using very little information. This is an activity that almost everybody does on a daily basis when faced with different issues. In his book, Gladwell focuses on how mental process work rapidly for one to make the best and accurate judgements. He provides several examples where quick and accurate decisions are made and they are; gambling, advertising, wars and sales. Thin slicing proves that sudden decisions are right compared to those that are planned and calculated. However, thin slicing can limit individuals’ understanding of the surrounding because of inadequate data.
Vaughn, L. (2013). The power of critical thinking. (4th ed.). New York, NY: Oxford University
Conformation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. (Ref: Wikipedia.org)
These biases influence our decisions, conduct, and understanding causing us to deduce in a favorable or unfavorable way, which may or may not be accurate. They occur without control or conscious decision and we are unaware they are happening. It is important to understand they are different from biases we might recognize from introspection, but decide they are not recognizable in ourselves. They are different from explicit biases, referring to beliefs and attitudes we may have of which we are conscious or aware. Even so, implicit biases can be discovered through proper
This bias can play out many ways in real life. It can affect your daily conversation, relationships, political stances, and your ability to view other people’s opinions. So, if you
This article is centered on the idea of heuristics, or the mental shortcuts people will take when formulating a decision on how to make sense of the social world. In the article, Thomas Gilovich studies the ways in which the cognitive strategies of heuristics can cloud judgment in everyday situations. The systematic biases are the “compared to what” problem, the “seek and ye shall find” problem and the selective memory problem. The “compared to what” problem states people tend to believe in statistics that cannot be properly measured without using a relevant reference point or baseline for comparison. Gilovich refers to a 1986 in Discover magazine that points out how useless a statistic gathered from survivors of fatal airline accidents are
Our ears and eyes have the possibility of deceiving us and making us have a lapse in judgment. What we hear and what we are told, what we read and what we see have the possibility of being incorrect. Whether we realize it or not, the universe around us is much more complex than we give it credit for. Our vision and hearing is simply not excelled enough to keep up with the fast moving world. If we can understand and accept the fact that we err, we can use what we know as a foundation for further research, always keeping in mind that what we think we know is not set in stone.
Our text defines cognitive biases as the “tendency to make systematic errors when they process information” (Lewicki & Saunders, 2010, p. 150). My first cognitive bias was issue framing and risk. I had already in my mind framed this negotiation from the stand point of man (knows everything) versus women (knows nothing) and therefore I was willing to take more risk because I believed I had the upper hand (Lewicki & Saunders, 2010, p. 153-154). The other cognitive bias I was guilty of was that of overconfidence. I was over confident because I believed I was matched up against someone that I believed was not as knowledgeable as I was, unfortunately I was wrong. When she told me that she had saved the doors from the landfill because she and her brother had bought her house as an investment property and renovated it and she had refinished all of her doors in her home. She also revealed that she had gotten a couple offers from a few antique store owners in town. I asked her how much they had offered her and she told me $100 per door. My wife and I peruse the antique stores in town a few times a year and have found some antique doors for sale for as much as $250 dollars. Some of the doors and in much worse shape than the ones she had for sale. At that point I knew I was in trouble. There was no way I was going to pay $100 per door. I asked her how much she wanted for the doors and she told me that
According to Burgess and fellow colleagues, human beings share two cognitive processes that both play a huge role in the decision-making process. The “slow-learning” system allows individuals to make their decisions with an unconscious effort, which can be advantageous during complex situations. However, this approach can also elicit biases and stereotypes in regards to certain topics or groups of people. The “fast-binding” system is initiated when one has to use critical thinking skills to pursue an outcome. Since this pathway requires a “sufficient supply of cognitive resources,” humans tend to use this energy when it is absolutely necessary. If the second process was always utilized, many choices would not be made in an efficient manner.