Seasonal Unemployment And Unemployment

With seasonal work recruiting beginning a month earlier in 2016 compared to the last few years, the seasonal labor market has seen an increase in job postings, job searches, and hourly wages. Expectations of increased consumer demand has companies like Macy’s, JC Penney Co., and Amazon competing for desirable candidates for the holidays, creating higher demand for labor than supply. As competition is tough throughout the seasonal labor market, UPS, Honey Baked Ham Co. and others, are offering incentives and bonuses to former employees to return for the holiday season. While demand is high and supply is lower than a few years ago, wages are increasing by 3% and 4% for temporary workers, keeping the natural rate of unemployment steady as the

The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses Seasonal Adjustment to accommodate for the sharp increases and decreases due to seasonal employment and layoffs. By removing the fluctuations, the graphs are easier to analyze, “Seasonal adjustment eliminates the influence of these fluctuations and makes it easier for users to observe fundamental changes in the level of the series, particularly changes associated with general economic expansions and contractions” (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Typically, seasonal employment flows with the seasons, for example during the winter months, unemployment is higher because of industries like construction and agriculture are halted. On the contrary, at the beginning of the summer months, unemployment is lower because student enter the workforce as the return home from school. The graphs below show the U-3 unadjusted unemployment and adjusted employment from 1994 to the projected unadjusted and adjusted unemployment rates for 2017. The red line (adjusted unemployment) shows steadier movements along the graph that, according to the BLS, are a more accurate depiction of economic