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Macroeconomic Forecasting
Abstract
Annual data was gathered on the United States' Gross Domestic Product and the economic indicators of unemployment, employment growth, inflation, and interest rates. Using 2004 as the base year, forecasts for the next two years were taken from three different forecasting organizations and compared to historical figures. Differences in projected data were addressed as well as relationships between forecasts and among the targeted indicators. The results of the economic forecasts were applied to current Motorola operations and plans. Whether or not Motorola's operations and plans are changed in response to the forecasted information, to avoid threats and take advantage of opportunities, are discussed.
Introduction
Just like the overall health of the human body depends on not only each organ and system working right but their working in harmony with one another so is it with the health of a nation. The economic health of the United States is embodied in its Gross Domestic Product and leading economic indicators, such as inflation or unemployment, are like lab results that give us an idea of just how healthy the economy is.
Economic indicators are Governmental statistics, released on a regular basis, which indicate the growth and health of a country. Economic indicators often affect and influence the value of a country's currency. The Trade Deficit, the Gross National Product (GNP), Industrial Production, the Unemployment Rate, and Business Inventories are examples of economic indicators. We will be dealing with four specific indicators: interest rate, inflation, unemployment, and employment growth as well as Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Real GDP is so called because the affects of inflation and depreciation are accounted for in the figures.
The state of the economy is important both on a micro and macroeconomic level. On a macro level, those in government pay close attention to these statistics in order to guide fiscal and monetary policy. On a micro level, households can use this data to guide their consumption and investments, while businesses can use this information in their strategic planning. In looking at economic information, there is current data, historical data, and economic forecasts. This enables decision makers to get a more complete picture of economic trends and see the relationship between various economic indicators.
During the course of this paper, we hope to give the reader a better understanding of the economic forces at play that influence this Nation's GDP, in therefore its economic health.