Ryanair Case Analysis

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MAJOR ISSUE

From the perspective of Ryanair, the major issue facing the firm is its valuation in the long-term, known as its economic value. Although the firm maintains a bullish outlook, there are diverging opinions regarding the valuation of the firm among investors. The valuations of the firm vary widely, with stock price estimates ranging from €3.05 to €7.57. This range reflects discrepancies on whether Ryanair has solid business model and fundamentals as well as numerous issues that plague not only Ryanair, but the airline industry as a whole. These issues are as follows:

· Competition: Regulation permitted the entrance of start-up carriers, which, when combined with the excess capacity and the potential for high returns, has led to increased competition. Increased competition has and will continue to force Ryanair to reduce fare prices.

· Costs: Regulation, although beneficial in some regards (cut-price deals), has also been costly for Ryanair. An unfavorable ruling by the EU in February 2004 put pressure on Ryanair's stock price and raised uncertainty among investors. Of more concern are rising costs associated with labor and fuel, which could increase fares and reduce margins and overall profitability.

· Macroeconomic environment: The airline industry has proven particularly sensitive to phenomena such as terrorist attacks, wars, outbreaks (SARS), drastic currency fluctuations, and the like. These phenomena tend to have a significant impact on the cost of fuel, overall demand for air transportation, tourism, etc.

To determine the economic value of Ryanair, these issues must be assessed with an appropriate time frame, passenger capacity, and discount rate.

ANALYSIS

To calculate the valuation of Ryanair, the firm's future revenues and costs, as well as the firm's current accounting value must be calculated. To account for a range of possibilities, three different valuations have been calculated through 2012. These are called Annual Report, Valuation 1, and Valuation 2. Descriptions of each of these valuations will develop as the revenue and cost modeling are discussed. A description of the valuations will conclude the Analysis portion of this document.

FUTURE REVENUES

Revenues on Per-Passenger Basis: For simplicity, and clarity, all models were generated using per-passenger revenue information. Using this marginal revenue calculation as opposed to a disaggregated marginal and total revenue model offered the advantage of compensating for data that was not fully contained within the case. This allows assumptions to be made about continuous and linear marginal revenue curve.

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