Cognitive Biases Essay

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Entrepreneurs are susceptible to a range of cognitive biases, which cause them to make erroneous judgements and decisions when given feedback from our actions. The most common biases for early-stage entrepreneurs are optimism bias, planning fallacy, confirmation bias and the sunk cost fallacy. Drew Houston encountered these biases both directly and indirectly during the early stages of his Dropbox venture. Houston avoided some of these biases completely, like the sunk cost fallacy, from his own vision of how to manage an early-stage venture. However, Houston was victim of the planning fallacy when estimating the time it would take to launch the Dropbox beta test. Ultimately, the success of Dropbox was directly influenced on how Houston both …show more content…

It is the tendency to underestimate the time and efforts required to complete a task given the benefits that it would bring. When Drew Houston applied to Y Combinator, he had projected to release a commercial version of Dropbox within eight weeks. However, Houston greatly simplified the efforts that must go into public relations and business planning to ensure the success of the product post-launch. The first and most obvious strategy to mitigate this fallacy, is to be aware of its presence when making estimates for the amount of work/time a task would require. The second approach is to make an estimate based on a similar task that has been done in the past. For radically innovative ventures, it is impossible to get such a reference. As a result, the idea is to launch and test minimum viable tests constantly to provide estimates of the effort a task would require. Houston explicitly states that because Dropbox was a mission-critical product, it would not be beneficial for them to launch early and often. As a result, it is somewhat understandable that they underestimated the time required to launch a viable product because they only had one beta test as a reference point, and this was not enough to make an accurate

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