transport management

Transport management is now far more sophisticated than it was a decade ago.

Transport activities generate a wide range of economic benefits. Between 2% and 4% of total OECD employment, for example, is derived from transport services, and an estimated 4-9% of GDP in the OECD area is attributable to spending by the users of transport (including expenditure on infrastructure). More than 10% of total household expenditure now goes to purchase transport services (OECD Publications/ECMT). The balance of international payments is also strongly influenced by trade in transport equipment.

Enormous changes have taken place in the transport sector in recent years. The most marked is its unprecedented growth. Both stock variables (fleet size, kilometres of road and rail infrastructure, and so on) and flow variables (number of trips taken, volume of goods transported, and the like) have expanded rapidly. The world's automobile fleet, for example, doubled between 1970 and 1990, to stand today at approximately 500 million vehicles. These numbers are expected to double over the next 20-40 years, although at a slower rate in OECD countries than in the past.

Substantial structural, changes have also taken place. For one thing, there has been a major shift in where transport growth is occurring. In 1950, 75% of all automobiles were located in the United States. Since then, the number outside the United States has grown by about 8% per year (Mackenzie Walsh 1990) with even more remarkable increases in some locations. In Athens, for example, car ownership burgeoned from 35,000 in 1964 to 650,000 in 1984, and is expected to be about 900,000 by this year (Glaoutzi Damianidias 1990). Most future growth in global vehicle stocks is projected to occur in the developing world, as the industrialized countries become increasingly saturated with vehicles, as the developing countries undergo urbanization and industrialization processes of their own, and as people there begin to realize their longstanding aspirations for more mobility. There has also been a significant shift in the shares of different modes of transport. In the past twenty years, the volume of road freight traffic has doubled, while rail and waterway volumes have remained stable.

In view of the rapidity of these changes, it is not surprising that transport problems are generating considerable political debate in most countries. The traditional approach used to be to step up the supply of services; increasingly, calls are being heard for policies that curtail demand. Whichever approach is preferred, much of the discussion centres on the so-called 'social costs' of transport.