The Milankovitch Theory—Earth’s Climate through Time

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In the nineteen-teens, as World War I raged across Europe, Milutin Milankovic, a Serbian astronomer and prisoner of war, was busy computing the gravitational force of planets like Jupiter on the Earth’s tilt and orbit. He had an idea that the amount of solar radiation that reaches higher latitudes could trigger an ice age or warm up the Earth. He believed that slow changes in the Earth’s orbit contributed to the amount of solar radiation reaching a particular latitude. By the end of the war, his first paper was published on the subject, and he began to expand upon his initial ideas. In 1941, he published Canon of Insolation of the Earth and Its Application to the Problem of the Ice Ages, describing his theories about the Earth’s orbit and tilt which are now referred to as the Milankovitch Cycles.

There are three main tenets of the Milankovitch Theory:

• the tilt of the Earth, or its obliquity

• the ellipticity or eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit

• the precession of the equinoxes.

Milankovic’s theories were initially ignored. Then in the 1970’s, scientists showed a renewed interest, and now the Milankovitch Cycles are widely accepted as contributing to the cycles of the ice ages although they continue to be critiqued and revised.

Obliquity—The Tilt of the Earth

We all know that the tilt of the Earth accounts for the seasons, but many folks don’t know that the tilt, or obliquity, of the Earth has changed over time. During a period of 41,000 years, the tilt of the Earth’s axis changes from 22.1° to 24.6°. This wobble, like other facets of the Milankovitch Cycles, is caused by gravitational interactions with other planets.

Currently the tilt of the Earth’s axis is 23.4°, but 9,500 years ago whe...

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...stocene epoch, we find that the temperature cools by four to ten degrees every 40,000 to 100,000 years and then warms back up again.

This is good news for Milankovic, but there are two problems.

• When conditions are favorable for an ice age in the northern hemisphere, they’re not favorable for one in the southern hemisphere. How could the Milankovitch Cycles cause a global change in climate then?

• Milankovitch cycles can only account for a temperature difference of 1° to 2°. How is it possible then that sediment records show temperature differences of 7° to 10°?

Currently, scientists believe that once an ice age has been triggered, oceanic circulation currents can change and the mixing of the oceans cools the southern hemisphere. As glaciers begin to accumulate in the northern hemisphere, solar heat is reflected off the snow which leads to further cooling.

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