The purpose of this paper is to explain the advances being made in technology and algorithms in helping advance the accuracy of forecasting. It will contrast the forecasting methods of several decades ago with forecasting methods in use today. In discussing how errors can accumulate over time and providing simple mathematical formulas as examples, this paper intends to show how the repetition of minor errors can affect the accuracy of weather predictions.
Introduction
Back in the days of Thomas Jefferson and George Washington, weather observations were recorded daily but not hourly or by the minute. Such repetition of data didn’t seem useful. After the telegraph was invented which enabled information about weather data to be transmitted across the country, they still reported only once a day. In contrast to today's virtual world of weather, making 24/7 use of climate data from satellites, buoys in the oceans, the ability to record worldwide temperatures, worldwide rainfall records, track wind speeds, pressure pulses of solar wind, carbon dioxide levels, tornadoes and hurricanes...etc (Harris, 2012).
An early pioneer of meteorology was Vilhelm Bjerknes, and his son Jacob, who described the lifecycle of the extratropical cyclone and shared his ideas for scientific weather forecasting. Bjerknes was disappointed over the unscientific methods of meteorology at the time, which, in contrast was making precise predictions in astronomy and meteorology as he felt, was at a standstill. His goal was to introduce scientific concepts to meteorology. According to Bjerknes, the two main ingredients in weather forecasting was knowledge of the atmosphere and accurate knowledge of the physical laws that govern it. Bjerknes identified: pressu...
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...Went Wrong?.ncep.noaa.gov/nwp50/Presentations. Retrieved February 19, 2012, from www.ncep.noaa.gov/nwp50/Presentation
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. (n.d.). NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Retrieved February 18, 2012, from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
Vanorsow. (2010, July 17). The Teaching Company User Community: View topic - 23. Prediction and Predictability. The Teaching Company User Community: Index. Retrieved February 18, 2012, from http://teachingcompany.12.forumer.com/viewtopic.php?t=3034
Weather Modeling and Prediction. (2011, May 16). NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. Retrieved February 17, 2012, from http://www.oar.noaa.gov/weather/t_modeling.html
The Weather Research&Forecasting Model Website. (n.d.). The Weather Research&Forecasting Model Website. Retrieved February 18, 2012, from http://wrf-model.org/index.php
Pilots with Big Island Air that were scheduled with a departure time of 7am or earlier would always receive a morning weather report to use as a reference and this weather report would always be included on their flight plane and weather fo...
After the Haicheng earthquake forecast, the area essentially would feel more optimistic on the forecasts of earthquakes. The following year in July 28, 1976 a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the city of Tangshan and caused as estimated 250,000 fatalities and 164,000 injured, without a warning or forecast. As you can see the con in the situation I just described would be the fact that one good forecast created an overly optimistic population in regarding to forecasting earthquakes.
With few exceptions today’s weather tracking technology is only continuing to evolve. The use of satellites allows for accurate readings and predictions of upcoming weather events. These findings in conjunction with such inventions as the Marine VHF radio which can send for help at a maximum range of 60 nautical miles help warn the crew of impending doom before the storm hits. Though many ships have been destroyed by storms in the past, today’s technology is humanity 's solution against the relentless forces of
...xpected weather conditions over time, previous weather conditions, possible areas of less deteriorating weather conditions, expected duration of bad weather condition.
The aspect of weather in a piece of literature is very important because it can give us insight into how the story will proceed and what will occur throughout the story itself. An example of this is in The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald. At the beginning of The Great Gatsby, we see that the narrator, Nick, describes how the sun is shining, the trees are producing new leaves, and the wind is softly blowing as the beginning of summer approaches. Seemingly upon first look, it looks as if Nick is just stating the obvious: it’s a nice day out, but what lies underneath after further research reveals that Nick is actually describing the up and coming promise of the year that lies ahead of him. Towards
This was very evident last week. The weather report was calling for overnight temperatures to be in the low twenties accompanied by rain. The low temperatures and rain were going to become a big headache for the Texas Department of Public Safety, otherwise known as DPS. Many of our highways are elevat...
Denissen, J. A., Butalid, L., Penke, L., & van Aken, M. G. (2008). The effects of weather on
Members of the group Weather Report went on to lead their own individual bands. Joe Zawinul's bands tried to encapsulate Weather Report while the groups lead by Wayne Shorter and Miroslav Vitous reflected a more conventional methodology. Later band members, for example, bassist Alphonso Johnson, drummer Alex Acuna, whose gathering Koinonia got extremely prevalent on the west coast, and bassist Jaco Pastorious additionally toured and recorded with their groups. Most striking were Jaco Pastorious' tasks, which offered his fundamentally creative bass playing in enormous band or smaller Caribbean touched settings.
Climate, weather, and meteorology are 3 words that seem to be the same but in reality differ significantly. Two of these concepts pertain to the atmosphere but differ in what time and place they are studied in, and the last one is studying these concepts.
Weather Delays. We seem to have heard so much more about them in recent years. Is the weather
Use forecasting tools to prepare accurate forecasts for CMO and measure forecast accuracy every three months.
Stevens, William K. 1999. The Change In The Weather: People, Weather and the Science of Climate. New York, New York. Delecorte Press.
The weather forecasters use probability and statistics just as much if not more than any other field on earth. As weather patterns are not fully understood and are dynamic, analysts have to rely heavily on past weather systems and patterns to “guess'; or estimate the possibility of present weather systems to behave in similar manners. If the probability of its behavior, subject to certain factors, in one manner over another is high forecasters make decisions as to how to advise the public.
Web. The Web. The Web. March 26, 2014 Ncdc.noaa.gov. Web.