Predictions Are Wrong

729 Words2 Pages

In chapter one, the authors begin by stating that solving problems is indeed difficult. Problem solving is a task we have faced throughout our lives yet, there are so many hard to solve problems that exist and linger because people fail to discover the answers to these questions. Levitt and Dubner have discovered a new thought process that ditches the idea that there is a right or wrong way to solve situations ad instead views the problem from a different angle. They proposed that we need to “think like a freak.” Thinking like a freak is thinking the unexpected and unordinary thought. This mindset may seem unusual although, thinking outside of the box is what caused diseases to be cured by injecting the disease causing bacterium into the patients …show more content…

We as humans tend to push aside the facts and assume answers based off of our personal beliefs. When it comes to knowledge, we need to take more of the “economic approach.” The world is full of dogmatism or “unshakable belief people have when they assume something if true but do not know if it's true or not” (Levitt and Dubner, 25). People that exude dogmatism are overconfident and are usually incorrect. In "Why Most Economists' Predictions Are Wrong" by economist Paul Krugman, he states that the majority of economists' assumptions end up false because of incorrect predictions of technology’s power within the future. We pretend to be a lot more knowledgeable than we truly are. Two psychologists wrote, "Despite spending more time with themselves than with any other person, people often have surprisingly poor insight into their skill and abilities" (Levitt and Dubner, 27). Another ignorance human have is that they assume because they are talented at A, they are great at B. This is an example of Ultracrepidarianism or "the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters outside of one's knowledge or competence" (page 28). People are more afraid to say "I don’t know" than being wrong. Again, people are so caught up in their reputation. When solving problems, we need to store away our moral compass because it deceives us into sometimes choosing the wrong answer because our mind is tricked into choosing what seems to be "the morally right answer." Our moral compass blinds us to topics like suicide. We do not realize there are nearly 40,000 deaths from suicide in a year because it is such a taboo to talk the topic. It is a shame because we are so afraid to openly talk about suicide and do not realize there so many suicides occurring on the other side of our blinders. David Lester who is one of the top professors in

Open Document