Australian Exchange Rate

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The Exchange rate of the Australian dollar, determined in various different ways over time and the rate, now determined by various market forces and influences of the foreign and domestic markets, has a significant impact on the Australian economy. The value of the Australian dollar was determined through three separate periods, a fixed system of pegs to other countries and indexes, a managed flexible peg, and a floating system in use today. Changes in the global and domestic economy have a significant bearing on the value of the Australian dollar, generally through shifting capital flow either in or out of the country for various reasons. The exchange rate also has a significant impact on the Australian economy as it directly effects the countries …show more content…

One of the most important impacts on the value of the AUD has been Australia’s terms of trade, the ratio of an index of a country’s export prices to an index of its import prices. For example, increased demand in China for, coal, iron, nickel and other commodities is likely to increase the terms of trade and the demand for the AUD to buy these commodities, would go up, causing an appreciation in the currency. Another example is that of the Oil price. Oil is a significant import to Australia as the country generates nearly none of its own and is completely dependent on the global market. An increase in the supply of oil overseas is likely to drive down the terms of trade as the import of oil becomes less expensive. In turn, less AUD is sold to purchase oil therefore decreasing the supply of AUD on the market driving an appreciation in the currency. Domestic interest rates also play a key role in the value of the AUD. If the RBA cash rate is higher than those overseas it is likely to draw in capital, prompting an increase in demand for the AUD and an appreciation of the dollar. In the 1980’s Australia’s interest rate was far higher than that those of the global economy, as a result the exchange rate sharply increased. In 1990’s when Australian interest rates dipped below those of the US the AUD sharply depreciated. These are both examples of the influence of interest rates on the AUD. The risk-premium of global investments is also likely to have an important influence on the AUD exchange rate. When the risk-premium of European government debt increased during the European Sovereign debt crisis in 2009, investors turned to safer Australian government bonds, which had a much lower risk premium. To buy these bonds investors needed to purchase Australian dollars, driving up demand for the currency, however this demand was partially offset by private sector outflows at

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