essay

Confirmation Bias

The human brain is capable of 1016 processes per second, which makes it far more powerful than any computer currently in existence. But that does not mean that our brains do not have major problems and limitations. The calculator can do math thousands of times better than we can, and our memories are often very limited. Moreover, we are subject to cognitive biases, those often unrecognized beliefs that we hold that cause us to make questionable decisions and reach erroneous conclusions. http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational A cognitive bias is a genuine deficiency or limitation in our thinking — a flaw in judgment that arises from errors of memory, social attribution, and miscalculations (such as statistical errors or a false estimation of probability). From attentional bias, where someone focuses on only one or two of several possible outcomes to zero-risk bias, where we place too much value on reducing a small risk to zero — the sheer number of cognitive biases that affect us every day is staggering. (http://www.businessinsider.com/cognitive-biases-2013-8?op=1)

One of the most common biases people are susceptible to is the confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is the most common, but unrecognized misconception. It is the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories, beliefs, and convictions.

Rolf Dobelli “The art of Thinking Clearly”

Confirmation bias allows us to filter information that contradicts our existing views (“disconfirming evidence”). We tend to agree with people who agree with us. This is the reason why we only visit websites that express our own political opinions, and why our associates ...

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...ons, not a single theory has satisfactorily explained it. There is, though, a modern theory explaining the anchoring effect in decision making. It is thought to stem from our tendency to look for confirmation in case of uncertainty. It shows the interconnection between the anchoring effect and the confirmation bias that has been discussed earlier in this paper.

In sum, we are surrounded by anchors everywhere and we all clutch to them. The “recommended retail price” printed on many products is nothing more than an anchor. Sales professionals know they must establish a price at early stage – long before they have an offer. (Rolf Dobelli “The act of thinking clearly”) The problem is that even being aware of its existence, we still can be victims of the anchoring bias. Some of the recommendations how to deal with this cognitive bias will be presented later in this paper.