Small-Scale Experiments and Large-Scale Predictions

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Introduction:

To understand the world’s climate, how it has changed and how it will change is quite a difficult task; a task that is extremely controversial. Scientists have been doing numerous small scale experiments and extrapolating the data to predict future trends in climate and emissions. This paper will show how extrapolating dating from small scale experiments is not always accurate and have a large margin of error.

The paper will discuss the various methods that environmental scientists use in attempting to extrapolate data from small scale experiments. With major emphasis on how the methods used are unable to account for the numerous variables that would have to be factored in for determining a large scale change.

Air Pollution:

In a small scale experiment by Nath and Patil (2006) they used an in situ real time mixing height model. The Mixing Height (MH) is the dispersion depth of the atmospheric boundary layer, a crucial input parameter in air pollution models (Nath et al., 2006). This model is able to get specific data from nearby meteorological stations twice daily and extrapolate the data to get an estimate of the MH. However, the extrapolated values obtained can cause significant errors in the prediction of pollution due to the fact that MH is time and site dependant.

Nath and Patil claim that the use of the in situ real time mixing height model they could estimate onsite real time values of the MH from readily available surface measurements of temperature and wind. This data is than combined to a readily available air pollution prediction model to predict the current pollution in the specified area. This model is meant to be used for remote locations where development is new and there are not a l...

... middle of paper ...

...at can be replicated. Otherwise making large scale predictions from small scale experiments can be extremely flawed.

Works Cited

Drake, B.G., Peresta, G.J. (1993) Open top chambers for studies of the long-term effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on wetland and forest ecosystem processes. Plant and Soil, 187:111–118,

Moutinho-Pereira, J.M., Bacelar, E.A., Goncalves, B., Ferreira, H.F., Coutinho, J.F., Correia, C.M. (2009). Effects of Open-Top Chambers on physiological and yield attributes of field grown grapevines. Acta Physiol Plant, 32:395–403

Nath, S., Patil, R.S. (2006). Prediction of air pollution concentration using an in situ real time mixing height model. Atmospheric Environment, 40:3816–3822

Sanders, G.E., Clark A.G., Colls, J.J. (1991) The influence of open-top chambers on the growth and development of field bean. New Phytol 117:439–447

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