How Undemocratic Parties May Win the Nepal Election

Kamal Thapa, President of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (Nepal), is taking his party to the second Constituent Assembly election on 19 November 2013 on two principal planks: Restoration of monarchy and Hindu state. The first CA had abolished them in 2008.

In the election for the first CA, other parties had prevented his pro-palace and pro-Hinduism party from organizing mass meetings. Thanks to the mismanagement and corruption of ruling parties, Mr. Thapa, a minister for several times under the Panchayat system and multiparty democracy, is now getting attention and traction.

His party’s mass meetings have been attracting a crowd as never before. Bharat Jangam, a lawyer and RPP candidate from one of the toughest constituencies, Kathmandu 1, recently told me, “I may not win this election, but reception from voters is quiet encouraging.”

Between Mr. Thapa’s main planks, restoration of Hindu state is resonating with voters. Nepal’s 88 percent population is Hindu. Even moderate secularist like Bhagirath Basnet, a former foreign secretary, believe that there should have been a referendum before declaring the country secular.

Reinstatement of monarchy is not as popular. People view the ousted King Gyanendra and his son, Paras, as the face of monarchy and do not like it. King Gyanendra had imposed direct rule in 2005 that triggered popular backlash and his son has been linked to criminal activities, including the murder of a singer. But who knows, Great Britain had restored its abolished monarchy after a decade.

Although a web-based unscientific opinion poll has shown Mr. Thapa’s party leading in the seat count of the second Constituent Assembly, other similar surveys tell otherwise. One survey puts the Nepali Congress ahead, w...

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... style multiparty democracy and independent courts.

Two main sticking points – nature of federalism and form of government – had prevented the first Assembly from writing a new statute. Ethnic parties and the UCPN (Maoist) supported ethnic states, while other parties favored multi-ethnic and viable states. Likewise, the UCPN (Maoist) wanted the presidential system, Nepali Congress parliamentary and CPN (UML) mixed.

Their current manifestos, too, reflect these differences. If they stick to their guns, the second Assembly will also fail to complete the new constitution. That will likely offer fresh opportunities for Mr. Thapa to gain further ground in the following election. Alternatively, the far left and far right may decide to work together, as in Cambodia. Either way, the main losers will be the people in the middle who love liberal democracy and freedom.