End Of History: The Fortune Misfortune Paradox

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Caleb Woodard Professor Brooks, Professor Callard Paradoxes 05/16/24 Fortune and the End of History The Fortune Misfortune paradox is a problem posed by Saul Smilansky, pointing out a difficulty in how we define fortune. The paradox concerns how seemingly misfortunate events can lead to ultimately fortunate circumstances, and vice versa. I believe that an event should be considered a fortune or a misfortune based on its eventual results, rather than immediate ones. While there are some concerns to be raised about this view when the logic is taken to its extremes, I believe my view nevertheless continues to be the most accurate way of referring to fortunes. The Fortunate Misfortune Paradox rests on how seemingly bad events can lead to good outcomes, …show more content…

Few would deny this, her life during those early years was obviously worse than had she not had the condition. The Momentist would wish to stop here, perhaps arguing that it is more practical to consider just the immediate consequences of an event. For everyday purposes of the term, it may suffice to say that Abigail’s condition is a misfortune. I would push back on this. While there are some real practical concerns with my view, concerns I will explore in detail shortly, it simply doesn’t feel completely accurate to say that Abigail’s condition is a misfortune, given the eventual results her condition leads to. Her condition may make her life worse over the short term, but over the long term her life is better. For the sake of this example, we will say that the good of her swimming success “outweighs” the bad of her hard childhood. It seems then that Abigail’s life has overall improved as a result of her condition. As uncomfortable as it may be to call the suffering Abigail experienced as a child a fortune, I believe it to be the most strictly accurate label. Why then could the Momentist claim the Eventualist view is …show more content…

If Abigail spent the rest of her life miserable in a wheelchair, it seems that her swimming success ultimately brought her more pain than joy. Her swimming career would become a misfortune, and the conditions that drove her to that career doubly so. This pattern can be followed further. Perhaps after a time of misery, Abigail decides to make the most of her circumstances and becomes a celebrated motivational speaker and author, writing about her tumultuous life and the importance of overcoming her misfortunes. Perhaps she meets the love of her life at a book signing, and goes on to live a very happy and satisfying life as a result of all of the ups and downs that brought her thus far. All of her earlier misfortunes swapped, and became fortunes again. I will leave Abigail’s life here, but one can easily imagine swapping her life, making her life miserable again. The Momentist’s point here is that if we consider a circumstance fortunate or misfortune only after learning its ultimate results, it seems that we may need to wait a while for everything to

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