Introduction In general the economy tends to experience different trends. These trends can be grouped as the business/trade cycle and may contain a boom, recession, depression and recovery. A business/trade cycle (see figure 1) is the periodic but irregular up-and-down movements in economic activity, measured by fluctuations in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables. Samuelson and Nordhaus (1998), defined it as ‘a swing in total national input, income and employment, usually lasting for a period of 2 to 10 years, marked by widespread expansion or contraction in most sectors of the economy’. These fluctuations in economic activity usually have implications on employment, consumption, business confidence, investment and output. Theories and the nature and causes of business cycle fluctuations The Keynesian Approach This theory shows how the collaboration of multiplier and accelerator can lead to regular cycles in aggregate demand. The Keynesians believe that economic activity is generally unstable and is subject to inconsistent shocks, usually causing the economic fluctuations and are attributed to the changes in autonomous expenditures especially investment. The Keynesian approach is pretty simple; higher investment will lead to a larger rise in income and output in the short run. This means that consumers will spend some of their income on consumption goods. This will give rise to further increase in expenditure. Ceteris paribus an initial rise in autonomous investment produces a more than proportionate rise in income. The rise in income will increase investment to meet the increase demand for output. The Keynesian also points out that as the economy is inconsistently unstable there is the need for government to intercede to make the economy stable when necessary. The Monetarist Approach This approach was developed by M. Friedman and A. J. Schwartz in their classic study A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (1963). The monetarist approach acclaims economic instability to fluctuations in the money supply swayed by the authorities. In such a situation the economy will return moderately back to the normal level of output and employment. They made it clear that the changes in the rate of monetary growth give rise to short term fluctuations in output and employment. Therefore in the long run, the trend rate of monetary growth only cause movements in the price level and other normal variables. They also attributed business cycle to the expansion and contraction of money and credit. Their views were that monetary factors are the primary source of fluctuations in aggregate demand.
... happen, however, because there are different disturbances to the economy. Booms can also be made by surges in public or private spending. An example for this is if the government spends a lot of money to fight a war but does not raise taxes, the increased demand will not only cause an increase in the output of war materiel, but also an increase in the take-home income of government plant workers. The output of all the goods and services that these workers want to buy with their wages will also increase. Similarly, a wave of optimism that causes consumers to spend more than usual and firms to build new factories will cause the economy to expand. Recessions or depressions can be caused by these same forces working in reverse. A substantial cut in govt. spending or a wave of pessimism among consumers and businesses may cause the output of all types of goods to fail.
John Maynard Keynes, an English economist, believed that government has responsibility to intervene in an economic crisis whereas, Friedrich Hayek, an Austrian-born economist and philosopher, believed that the government intervention is worthless and dangerous. According to the book, The General Theory of the Employment, Interest and Money, Keynes argues that the level of employment is not determined by the price of labor but by the spending of money on collective demand. Also, he argues that it is wrong to assume a competitive market will deliver full employment. Likewise, it is wrong to believe that full employment is natural, the self-correcting and equilibrium state of a monetary economy. In contrast, under-employment and under-investment are natural states to be seen unless active measures are taken.
Classical economist’s theory of monetary policy was thought to only affect prices and wouldn’t affect truly important factors such as employment. It was a major concern that if the government was to finance its’ spending only by increasing how much money was produced then it would have the same out come as expansionary monetary policy.
The economic business cycle of the world is its own living and breathing entity expanding and contracting with imprecise balances involving supply and demand. The expansions and contractions also known as booms and recessions support a delicate equilibrium of checks and balances, employment and unemployment. The year 1929 marked the beginning of the downward spiral of this delicate economic balance known as The Great Depression of the United States of America. The Great Depression is by far the most significant economic event that occurred during the twentieth century making other depressions pale in comparison. As a result, it placed the world’s political and economic systems into a complete loss of credibility. What transforms an ordinary recession or business cycle into an authentic depression is a matter of dispute, which caused trepidation among economic theorists. Some claim the depression was the result of an extraordinary succession of errors in monetary procedure. Historians stress structural factors such as massive bank failures and the stock market crash; economists hold responsible monetary factors such as the Federal Reserve’s actions when they contracted the currency distribution, and Britain's attempt to return their Gold Standard to pre-World War parities. Subsequently, there are the theorists such as the monetarists, who presume that it began as a normal recession, however many policy errors by the monetary establishment forced a reduction in the money supply, which worsened the economic condition, thereby turning the normal recession into the Great Depression. Others speculate that it was a failure of the free market or a failure of the government in their efforts to regulate interest rates, slow the occ...
We feel that the latter is on the radical side of thinking, and that overall the Federal Reserve has the best interest of the nation and international economy in all their decisions regarding the increases in interest rates, etc. Since the onset of the Federal Reserve, we have not gone into a major depression, and over the course of time there will be times when our economy will peak and boom and the Fed will feel that it is time to slow the economy by raising the rates. Bibliography FED 101 Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. http://www.kc.frb.org/fed101 Friedman, Milton and Jacobson Schwartz, Anna. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960.
The state of the economy is important both on a micro and macroeconomic level. On a macro level, those in government pay close attention to these statistics in order to guide fiscal and monetary policy. On a micro level, households can use this data to guide their consumption and investments, while businesses can use this information in their strategic planning. In looking at economic information, there is current data, historical data, and economic forecasts. This enables decision makers to get a more complete picture of economic trends and see the relationship between various economic indicators.
Gustman, A. L., Steinmeier, T. L., & Tabatabai, N. (2012). How Did The Recession Of
The enforcement of Keynesian policies, involving increased government spending, was essential in driving economic recovery in numerous countries during the Great Depression. In simple terms “The Keynesian model states that government spending adds to total demand, which adds more to production and more workers being hired.” This summarizes the concept of the policies during the time of a recession when the demand for goods isn’t as high, leading to mass unemployment. The effect of government spending is highlighted in this quote since an increase in spending can boost the demand for products, ultimately leading to an increase in employment rates. The relationship between government spending, the demand for products, and employment is a significant factor in how decisions are made and the stability of the government.
Unstable economy – Economy changes constantly. Changes in interest rates, inflation and unemployment rates affect the demand of the product;
Over the past five years the Australian economy has gone through many changes experiencing both the peaks and troughs associated with business cycle.
The disparities between the two views of the economy lead to very different policies that have produced contradictory results. The Keynesian theory presents the rational of structuralism as the basis of economic decisions and provides support for government involvement to maintain high levels of employment. The argument runs that people make decisions based on their environments and when investment falls due to structural change, the economy suffers from a recession. The government must act against this movement and increase the level of employment by fiscal injections and training of the labour force. In fact, the government should itself increase hiring in crown corporations. In contrast the Neoliberal theory attributes the self-interest of individuals as the determinant of the level of employment.
The term Monetary policy refers to the method through which a country’s monetary authority, such as the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England control money supply for the aim of promoting economic stability and growth and is primarily achieved by the targeting of various interest rates. Monetary policy may be either contractionary or expansionary whereby a contractionary policy reduces the money supply, reduces the rate at which money is supplied or sets about an increase in interest rates. Expansionary policies on the other hand increase the supply of money or lower the interest rates. Interest rates may also be referred to as tight if their aim is to reduce inflation; neutral, if their aim is neither inflation reduction nor growth stimulation; or, accommodative, if aimed at stimulating growth. Monetary policies have a great impact on the economic stability of a country and if not well formulated, may lead to economic calamities (Reinhart & Rogoff, 2013). The current monetary policy of the United States Federal Reserve while being accommodative and expansionary so as to stimulate growth after the 2008 recession, will lead to an economic pitfall if maintained in its current state. This paper will examine this current policy, its strengths and weaknesses as well as recommendations that will ensure economic stability.
In the study of macroeconomics there are several sub factors that affect the economy either favorably or adversely. One dynamic of macroeconomics is monetary policy. Monetary policy consists of deliberate changes in the money supply to influence interest rates and thus the level of spending in the economy. “The goal of a monetary policy is to achieve and maintain price level stability, full employment and economic growth.” (McConnell & Brue, 2004).
Keynesian economists, similar to Classical economists, also believe that the economy is made up of consumer spending, government spending, and business investments. However, the Keynesian Theory says government spending can improve economic growth in the absence of consumer spending and business investment (Differences). According to the Keynesian theory, wages and prices are not flexible. A static price will give a horizontal aggregate supply curve in the short run (Classical and Keynesian Economics).
=== A study of economics in terms of whole systems especially with reference to general levels of output and income and to the interrelations among sectors of the economy is called macroeconomics. Macroeconomics is concerned with the behavior of the economy as a whole—with booms and recessions, the economy’s total output of goods and services and the growth of output, the rates of inflation and unemployment, the balance of payments, and exchange rates. Macroeconomics deals with the increase in output and employment over long period of time—that is economic growth—and with the short-run fluctuations that constitutes the business cycle. Macroeconomics focuses on the economic behavior and policies that effect consumption and investment, trade balance, the determinants of changes in wages and prices, monetary and fiscal policies, the money stock, the federal budget, interest rates, and national debt. In brief, macroeconomics deals with the major economic issues and problems of the day.