Economic Indicators When predicting the future of the economy it is necessary to look at forecasts from several different economic indicators such as Real GDP, unemployment rates, the Consumer Price index, interest rates, Producer Price Index, and oil and fuel prices. It can be helpful to look at more than one forecast as there may be a variety of forecasts with different results or bias. Comparing two forecasts per indicator will give consumers a better idea of upcoming economic conditions. After evaluating such forecasts, it is important to analyze which forecast best suits the current circumstances to more accurately prediction of the economy. Unemployment Rate Although some degree of unemployment is inevitable in a complex economy, the amount of unemployment varies substantially over time and across countries. Unemployment rate forecasts matter to the financial market and consumers. Unexpected changes in the unemployment rate have a statistically significant effect on the economy. These unemployment rate changes affect consumer confidence because the public identifies the unemployment rate with the economy's health. To the extent that changes in the unemployment rate influence households' perceptions and expectations of economic conditions, they also affect spending, output, and employment. Sources, such as The University of Central Florida and The Livingston Survey have released forecasts of the US unemployment rate. The Livingston Survey released a 2006 forecast that forecasts sustained output growth through the end of 2007. Growth rate will increase to 2.8% in the first half of 2007, and they predict it will then increase to 3.1%. The Livingston Survey has also said that the unemployment rate is expected to rise f... ... middle of paper ... ...on March 1, 2007 from the Congressional Budget Office website: http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=7731&sequence=0 The Livingston Survey. (2006, December 7). Retrieved on March 1, 2007 from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank website: http://www.phil.frb.org/files/liv/livdec06.pdf The Livingston Survey (2006, December 7). Forecasters Lower Their Estimates for Growth and Unemployment. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Retrieved on March 2, 2007 from http://www.phil.frb.org/files/liv/livdec06.pdf USA: 5-year forecast table. (2007, February 21) Economist ViewsWire. Retrieved March 3, 2007 from Economist Intelligence Unit Database U.S. Forecast (2007, February). Highlights of the 1Q 2007 Forecast. College of Business Administration – University of Central Florida. Retrieved on March 2, 2007 from http://www.bus.ucf.edu/hitec/UCF_US_ForecastFeb07Final.pdf
First, I will discuss the time period between 1973-1974. Because the unemployment and inflation rates are higher than normal, we can assume that the aggregate-demand curve is downward-sloping. When the aggregate-demand curve is downward-sloping, we know that the economy’s demand has slowed down. When the economy’s demand has slowed down, businesses have to choice but to raise prices and lay off workers in order to preserve profits. When employers throughout the country respond to their decrease in demand the same way, unemployment increases.
"Macroeconomics/Employment and Unemployment." Macroeconomics/Employment and Unemployment - Wikibooks, Open Books for an Open World. N.p., n.d. Web. 04 July 2017.
Finally, I will do a financial forecast in order to figure out firms’ ability to repay its loans. I will use simple percentages-of-sales forecasting technique. I will use existing trends in my forecast to show the implications of current policies before making my own recommendations. During my forecast I will use New Era Partners loan to find out the interest rates. I will make the short-term debt as my plug.
Labor market behavior can have significant long run effects on potential output. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the size and quality of the labor force, capital stock, and the efficiency of production, determine a country’s potential output. When policies influence relevant factors, such as the size of the labor force, the...
Every few years, countries experience an economic decline which is commonly referred to as a recession. In recent years the U.S. has been faced with overcoming the most devastating global economic hardships since the Great Depression. This period “a period of declining GDP, accompanied by lower real income and higher unemployment” has been referred to as the Great Recession (McConnell, 2012 p.G-30). This paper will cover the issues which led to the recession, discuss the strategies taken by the Government and Federal Reserve to alleviate the crisis, and look at the future outlook of the U.S. economy. By examining the nation’s economic struggles during this time period (2007-2009), it will conclude that the current macroeconomic situation deals with unemployment, which is a direct result of the recession.
This disruption gives those who have lost their jobs to improve themselves by furthering their education. The psychological effects on displaced workers only last until they find a replacement job. Today, the national unemployment rate is at five percent according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Databases). Economic experts believe that technological advances are expanding at a faster rate than humans can learn to manage and adapt to the new skills necessary to survive in the evolving labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics. This report reveals the unemployed rate in the US, except government, farm and non-profit workers. That covers some 80% of the US working force. A decrease in the unemployed rate, i.e. there are more people working, usually indicates the market is growing. As a result the American Dollar will grow stronger. If a trader speculated that beforehand, and opened buying positions prior to the announcement – the outcomes would be to his favour. Naturally, if the unemployed rate rises the Dollar will weaken. Either way, the NFP and the speculations beforehand will cause vibrations in different
An economic indicator is a statistic of the current status of the economy. This can predict how the economy may perform in the future. Investors and other private or government organizations use this information as a tool to make business decisions. By gathering historical data about the economy and comparing it to current trends, one can compile a snapshot of economic fluctuations. The direction of an indicator may vary according to changes in the economy. The indicator can be leading, lagging, or coincident. Leading indicators are changes before the economy has recognized the changed. Lagging indicators do not change until a few quarters after the economy has change. Coincident indicators move at the same time as the economy (The Library of Congress, 2005). Some of the common indicators are GDP, Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate, Capacity utilization, Auto sales, and Personal income. As the explanation of these six indicators will be use to forecast the future of the economy, the trend of these indicators will also be used to evaluate the economy's historical and future outcome.
For example, some economists analyze historical employment trends to make future projections on jobs, design policies or make recommendations for solving economic problems(”Economists”). The idea of solving problems like this interests...
People need money to purchase all kinds of goods and services they needed every day and sometimes, for goods or services they desire to own. To fulfill that, they have the essential need to earn money. In order to earn money, they must work in either in fields related to their interests or to their qualifications. However, people will meet different challenges during their jobs-hunting sessions, such as many candidates competing for a job vacancy; salaries offered are lower than expected salaries and economic crisis or down which causes unemployment. Unemployment is what we will be looking into in this report. Dwidedi (2010) stated that unemployment is defined as not much job vacancies are available to fulfill the amount of people who want to work and can work according to the current pay they can get for a job they chose to work as. There are four major types of unemployment: frictional, structural, cyclical and seasonal unemployment.
In a recap, the three policies introduced, the Unemployment Reformation Act of 2059, the Infinite Education Opportunities Program Act, and the Unity Tax, will be a vital part in restoring and surpassing expectations for decreasing the percentage of Americans unemployed by ten to fifteen percent within the next six to eight months. I believe that with these policies the chances of a recession will not occur for a long period of time. For that matter, a recession may not occur again depending on how successful the unemployment plans develop. Nevertheless, I predict that by the year 2109 the employment rate for Americans will reach eighty-three to eighty-five percent.
Unemployment rates is the number of unemployed people divided by the number of people in the labor force. According to IndexMundi (2018), the unemployment rate of whole world in year 2017 is 7.9%, which was increased 0.6% compare with year 2016.
In December 2007, the United States of America experienced a very scarce yet appealing setback. In fact, because of this specific dilemma between 200,000 and 500,000 were left unemployed and without a stable home. The national Bureau of the Economic research defined this nationwide downfall as “The great recession”. According to the U.S Bureau of labor statistics the unemployment rate has not made a drastic improvement since the start of the great recession. Unemployment has become that is still rising today with a slow rate of change. Unemployment is usually expressed as a number or as a percentage of a larger number. Although it has been ambiguous who has to be included in the percentage, there are members of society without a job, for whom it is certain that should not be added. Officially the unemployed are the people who are registered with the government as willing to work and able to work at a going wage rate but can’t find suitable employment despite an active search for work. In the article “why long-time employment can’t get back on track”, the author begins speaking on a ...
Daly, Mary, Bart Hobijn, and Rob Valletta. 2011. “The Recent Evolution of the Natural Rate of Unemployment.”