Delphi Method Influence in Sales Forecasting

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Recommended: The Delphi technique is a systematic, interactive forecasting procedure based on independent and anonymous input regarding future events

Sales forecasting is an important part of business. Sales forecasts are crucial in developing business plans, production schedules, budgets, advertising and marketing plans, etc. as the forecasts drive decisions around sales prices, production costs, strategic operations and more (Hicham, Mohammed, & Anas, 2012). The Delphi Method as described by Dalkey and Helmer (1963) utilizes questionnaires to gather key information from a variety experts to form a consensus. Businesses are then able to use this information in their long-range forecasting (Sharp, n.d.). This work will discuss the Delphi Method and how it is utilized in sales forecasting in businesses today.
The Delphi Method
In the 1950s, the United States Air Force sought to answer strategic questions that were difficult to test. In order to determine the amount of munitions needed to take out certain targets, the military employed several strategic analysts to tackle the problem by utilizing a series of questionnaires (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963). The developers of the technique wanted to allow panel members “to conceptualize in realistic terms the problems on which they were working, rather than in theoretical terms” (Sharp, n.d., para. 7). In order to do this, panelists would be given questionnaires that addressed a specific question. The participants were then asked to give their responses as well as insight on how they reached those answers. Panelists were allowed to utilize their own research but were discouraged from discussing the work with anyone else. They were also allowed to ask questions of the researchers that would help answer the initial question. The information is gathered from the panelists, reviewed and then follow up questions are asked. The question and an...

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...N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467. Retrieved from https://ehis-ebscohost-com.csuglobal.idm.oclc.org/ehost
Hicham, A., Mohammed, B., & Anas, S. (2012). Hybrid intelligent system for sale forecasting using Delphi and adaptive fuzzy back-propagation neural networks. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 3(11). http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2012.031120
Ismail, Z. H., & Ahamad, M. H. (2003). Delphi improves sales forecasts: Malaysia’s electronic companies’ experience. Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, 22(2), 22. Retrieved from https://ehis-ebscohost-com.csuglobal.idm.oclc.org/ehost
Sharp, A. G. (n.d.). Reference for Business: Encyclopedia of Business (2nd ed.). Retrieved from http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia

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