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Different forecasting techniques
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Forecasting had become one of my favorite topic. Forecasting is having been a very useful tool for many companies and by definition, it is look back at records and data to establish a trend to help with budgeting, a particular period of sales or anticipated expense. Either way it is used to analyze if events they set out to do will affect the business in a positive or negative way.
I will focus on the qualitative focus, Delphi method of forecasting because it is widely acceptable and used by a lot of companies. This method of forecasting is done by anonymously giving surveys in an organization to gather information to report specific marketing and supply chain issues. This method can give companies some great results that probably was oversighted and was able to fix because of this method.
From my understanding, the Delphi method can tell if a project is going the way it is supposed to, how the process is going and if not why not. Furthermore, it also tells what are the issues that members don’t know about and what needs to be address. People tend to be more honest and forthcoming when surveys are anonymous and this yield a more meaning ad accurate response. This ultimately goal of the survey is to get more efficient and direct reports.
The best time to put the Delphi method to used is when a project is going the
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According to (Russel 2014), The main reason is holding inventories of finished goods to meet customer demand for a product, especially in a retail operation (Russel, 2014). In the supply chain collaborative relation is very important and it is a must to manage vendors and customers relationship. From the semester, I have learned that because of good relationship the reason why product flow smoothly is because of storage and inventory management. Inventory is a predominant part of the supply chain and most time because of inventory, purchase and transfers determines management
Addressing the trials of operating in a continually changing environment and realizing forecasts can only
For example, some economists analyze historical employment trends to make future projections on jobs, design policies or make recommendations for solving economic problems(”Economists”). The idea of solving problems like this interests...
The main area of focus in this article is on the evolution to a successful business model of Supply-chain management. About two decades ago there were the “traffic” managers with a sole responsibility of transferring freight to outside world. After that came the physical distribution management which was broadened to logistics management. Then the advent of supply-chain management made the transportation distribution and logistics professionals are the key in transforming into an effective business process. The Supply-chain management incorporates the activity of moving goods from raw-materials stage to making it available to the end-user covering the procedures of sourcing and procurement, production scheduling, order processing, inventory management, transportation warehousing, customer service and an information system to monitor all the activities.
54). The first step in forecasting is to develop the opportunity or threat with different alternative conclusions, which is most useful when using a brainstorming method (Ginter et al., 2013, p. 54). In addition, there is a need to identify the associations between the tendencies, changes, predicaments, and or likelihood of events and the environmental categories (Ginter et al., 2013, p. 54), such as the judicial/political environment of the Affordable Care Act. In doing so, it will allow management to see the possibilities of how these issues can affect the future of the company. In turn, this allows the management team to build a better strategic plan, so that the healthcare business has longevity in the fast-paced environment. However, one must assess all the information proposed from the scanning, monitoring, and forecasting of the potential threats or opportunities to the healthcare
In all, supply chain operation management has helped many global companies in handling and distributing their products as it is a one-stop solution provider from one warehouse direct to end user. By building trust among the trading partners with effective communications would improve performance metrics both the company and the solutions provider.
In the competitive environment, it is necessary for moving products involves reception of products at an intermediate location, store, repackage, clear customs and transport to final destination. The other factor in the supply chain logistics is speed given information flows fast in the internet era. The customer expects everything quick accustomed to the instant status access to the information. With the real time inventory, customer expects the location of the product, it is next scheduled movement and the final delivery schedule.
Companies have transformed technology from a supporting tool into a strategic weapon.”(Davenport, 2006) In business research, technology has become an essential means that many organizations use in their daily operations. According to the article, Analytics is a major technological tool used. It is described as “the extensive use of data, statistical and quantitative analysis, explanatory and predictive models, and fact-based management to drive decisions and actions."(Davenport, 2006) Data is compiled to enhance business practices. When samples are taken, they are used to examine research and understand how to solve problems or why situations are as they are. Furthermore, in this article, Thomas Davenport discusses analytics from a business standpoint. He refers to organizations that have been successful in their usage of data and statistical analysis. In addition, he also discusses how data and statistics can be vital in the efforts to improve the operations of businesses.
Inventory management is a method through, which a business handles tangible resources and materials to ensure availability of resources for use. It is a collection of interdisciplinary processes including a full circle from the demand forecasting, supply chain management, inventory control and reverse logistics. Inventory management is the optimization of inventories of manufactured goods, work in progress, and raw materials. According to Doucette (2001) inventory management can be challenging at times; however, the need for effective inventory management is largely seeing more as a necessity than a mere trend when customer satisfaction and service have become a prime reason for a business to stand apart from its competition. For example, Wal-Mart’s inventory management is one of the biggest contributors to the success of the company;
According to Kerzner (2010) external factors will interact with the development of the methodology (such as change in the marketplace, needs for advancement, organizational growth, change on customers’ demands, etc.) and will impact its failure or success. Having that in mind, there are few things that Ferris need to consider to ensure the success of their single methodology:
Bower, P. (2005). 12 MOST COMMON THREATS TO SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING PROCESS. Journal Of Business Forecasting, 24(3), 4-14
Supply chain management has been defined as that process that involves the management of information, materials, and all the finances that are handled within and across the entire supply chain process (Christopher, 2016). The management is usually done through out the entire supply chain management from that moment when the suppliers are involved through all the manufacturing activities, different distribution activities, and the way that the products are served to the final product consumer (Turban, et al., 2002). The process also includes all the activities that different organizations offers to their customers as after sale services for purposes perfecting their services and products towards their highly valued customers (Christopher,
‘Supply chain management integrates supply and demand management within and across companies. It encompasses the planning and management of all activities involved in sourcing and procurement, conversion, and all logistics management activities. Importantly, it also includes coordination and collaboration with channel partners, which can be suppliers, intermediaries, thir- party service providers, and customers’. (Web: Council for Supply Chain Management Pr...
...forecasts. Given the high degree of uncertainty in today's marketplace, qualitative forecasting techniques like the Delphi technique may help Firstlogic to better-forecast future sales.
Customer order and decoupling point are what sets the inventory position in the production and tell them how they operate.
This is the activity carried out by organizations that own production sites, and their performance has a major impact on product cost, quality, speed of delivery and delivery reliability, and flexibility [8]. As it is quite an important part of the supply chain, production needs to be measured and continuously improved. Suitable metrics for the production level are as follows. Order lead-time, the total order cycle time, called order to delivery cycle time, refers to the time elapsed in between the receipt of customer order until the delivery of finished goods to the customer. The reduction in order cycle time leads to reduction in supply chain response time, and as such is an important performance measure and source of competitive advantage [9]. It directly interacts with customer service in determining competitiveness. Range of product and services: According to [8] a plant that manufactures a broad product range is likely to introduce new products more slowly than plants with a narrow product range. Plants that can manufacture a wide range of products are likely to perform less well in the areas of value added per employee, speed and delivery reliability. This clearly suggests that product range affects supply chain performance. Effectiveness of scheduling techniques is another important measure of supply chain effectiveness. Scheduling refers to the time or date on or by which