This chapter will mainly discuss about Black Scholes model, which is applied in this research. The history of Black Scholes will be introduced followed by Geometric Brownian motion equation history. Besides these two, we will also explain briefly about financial application of gold share price.
2.2 Gold Share Price
Shahriar Shafiee (2010) is concerned about global gold market and gold price forecasting. He stated that in practice, the price and production behavior of gold differs from most other mineral commodities. In the 2008 financial crisis, the gold price increased by 6% while many key mineral prices fell and other equities dropped by around 40%. The unique and diverse of gold demand and supply do not correlate highly with changes in other financial assets. He had concluded that the gold supply showed that around 160,000 tons of gold has been mined in history up to the end of 2008. Gold demand by jewelry, industrial and central bank reserves equate to approximately 100,000, 30,000 and 30,000 tons, respectively. A significant proportion of the demand side of gold is attributed to jewelry, which can in turn be injected into the supply side.
There are a number of different price modeling methods that have been discussed in financial literature. The geometric Brownian motion and mean reversion are two classical approaches which form the basis for some newer methods, such as stochastic price forecasting and mean reverting jump diffusion models. These models focus on historical price movements and a random term to estimate future prices. They do not consider price jumps or dips in the models (Shahriar Shafiee, 2010).
2.3 Black Scholes Option Pricing Model
In the research made by Arend (2008) on the emergence Blac...
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We have devoted our study to apply statistical methods to stochastic differential equations, initially to estimate by the historical method, which uses the property of independence and normality of the outputs. The Black-Scholes model and its alternatives are largely used by the professionals. For that, the estimate of its parameters deserves that we interested in other techniques more adapted: discrete method. The discrete method makes it possible to estimate the parameters of Black-Scholes model in the case of the discrete paths. In this method, it is necessary to observe the process during a certain interval of time i.e. to use all the observations of the paths. The discrete method being based on the criterion which minimizes the variances of the estimators and the small errors with the true values of the share price of gold(Khaldi Khaled, 2010).
The coins made in gold, silver and bronze were traded during Roman Empire and the shortage of coins created a barrier for money circulation. However with the establishment of paper money, a sophisticated banking, global clearing system and electronic money, the global financial system evolved with a worldwide framework of legal agreements. In the Global Financial market, foreign currencies issued by the world, countries are traded by the buyers and sellers using currency exchange rates. Now a day, it is very common practices of companies in one country to raise capital in a foreign country by listing their stocks on major foreign exchanges given the growth of equity markets are becoming more globalized (SNHU, 2015).
The Dow Theory suggests that all information (of the past, present or future) is factored into the prices of stocks and indexes. It includes all micro and macro economic factors ranging from inflation to earnings.
Brian Domitrovic, PhD, Chairman of the Department of History at Sam Houston State university, stated in his article The Gold Standard: The Foundation of Our Economy’s Greatness that, “From the first full year that the constitution’s outline of the gold standard took effect, 1790, until 1913, the year the Federal Reserve came into existence and the serial dismantling of the gold standard began, the United States economy increased in size, in real terms, by just about 150-fold” (Should The United States Return To The Gold Standard?, 2013). This record of growth was so large that the United States economy was over twice as large as Germany, its closest rival. Domitrovic also appreciated the stability the gold standard provides if managed correctly because it limits inflation and slows rises in consumer prices. In addition, it limits the government’s ability to create money as the government can only print money if there is enough gold to back
From the equation above, it shows that only crude oil price has significant positive relationship with gold price in Malaysia. Adversely, the remaining variable exchange rate and interest rates in Malaysia have negative relationship with gold prices.
According to Munsterberg’s film theory, the motion picture is an original medium in that it aesthetically stimulates the spectator’s senses. Although both still picture and theatrical play can possibly leave images on the spectator’s retina or brain, each element of motion picture, including camera angle and work, lighting, editing, music, and the story itself, appeals to somewhere more than just retina or brain— the element of motion picture truly operates upon the spectator’s mind. Speaking of Darren Aronofsky’s Black Swan, the film unfolds a story of physically and mentally repressed ballerina’s life. Due to the film’s effective filming and editing techniques, the film successfully increases excitement as well as suspense in the story. Since Black Swan captures not only the real world the ballerina lives in but also the other side of the world the ballerina has within her mind, its spectator would experience a fantastic world where one ballerina lives in two different worlds at the same time. Even though the still picture and the theatrical play also give the spectator either a visual or an aural image, motion picture is the one that stimulates the spectator’s senses with its story, color, sound, acting, filming, and editing.
...s the example of the price of the gold to determine the relationships between the Linear Algebra and the Financial World. The uses of the financial concepts and the mathematics equations generally support the author’s aim of the price changing in different period of time. As the mathematics research article, it has clearly uses the symbols and equations to support the point of view of the author which shows the result of the element of the completed market and the changes of the price. However, it is not easy for a people who lack of mathematics knowledge to understand the concepts and equations of the mathematics. It will be easier for them to read and understand the author’s explanation if there are more explain on the equations or more wording explanations. Overall, Barbara Swart had been clearly explained the relationship of Linear Algebra and Financial World.
In this way, an explanation will be provided for why the gold standard rose to prominence and then declined. The gold standard is a monetary system in which the value of a nation’s currency is attached to the value of gold. In this system, gold can be exchanged for currency and currency can be exchanged for gold. During the nineteenth century, the major nations of the world switched to the gold standard, thereby replacing the previous system of bimetallism (a standard based on the values of both gold and silver). In 1821, Britain was the first nation to adopt the gold standard.
The concept of beta has gained prominence due to the pioneering works of Sharpe (1963), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966). There are many studies that examine the behaviour and nature of beta. These studies include the impact of the length of the estimation interval, the stability of individual security beta as compared to portfolio beta, factors influencing the beta as well as the stability of beta in various market conditions.
The execution of our investment strategy occurred in three stages. First, we invested in t-bills and bonds according to our original set out investment plan. This was to decrease potential losses and risk associated with the declining equity market. Therefore, we invested about two hundred thousand of our funds into these low risk assets to maintain buying power. Due to inflation, we did not want to lose buying power by leaving funds in an account without earning interest. Further, we invested a small portion of funds into the commodity market. With a slumping equity market and a positive outlook on the gold commodity, we invested in Gold Corporation at the same time we invested in income assets.
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is an ex ante concept, which is built on the portfolio theory established by Markowitz (Bhatnagar and Ramlogan 2012). It enhances the understanding of elements of asset prices, specifically the linear relationship between risk and expected return (Perold 2004). The direct correlation between risk and return is well defined by the security market line (SML), where market risk of an asset is associated with the return and risk of the market along with the risk free rate to estimate expected return on an asset (Watson and Head 1998 cited in Laubscher 2002).
Howells, Peter., Bain, Keith 2000, Financial Markets and Institutions, 3rd edn, Henry King Ltd., Great Britain.
x. With or without diamond-studding, gold jewellery is a market where India has tremendous scope for export growth. India is the world’s biggest consumer of gold according to World Gold Council Statistics. However, India’s exports of gold jewellery (13 per cent of its total gem and jewellery exports) are negligible: less than 2 per cent of the US$ 80 bn global market.
Chapter 11 closes our discussion with several insights into the efficient market theory. There have been many attempts to discredit the random walk theory, but none of the theories hold against empirical evidence. Any pattern that is noticed by investors will disappear as investors try to exploit it and the valuation methods of growth rate are far too difficult to predict. As we said before the random walk concludes that no patterns exist in the market, pricing is accurate and all information available is already incorporated into the stock price. Therefore the market is efficient. Even if errors do occur in short-run pricing, they will correct themselves in the long run. The random walk suggest that short-term prices cannot be predicted and to buy stocks for the long run. Malkiel concludes the best way to consistently be profitable is to buy and hold a broad based market index fund. As the market rises so will the investors returns since historically the market continues to rise as a whole.
Brian Domitrovic, PhD, Chairman of the Department of History at Sam Houston State University, stated in his article The Gold Standard: The Foundation of Our Economy’s Greatness that, “From the first full year that the constitution’s outline of the gold standard took effect, 1790, until 1913, the year the Federal Reserve came into existence and the serial dismantling of the gold standard began, the United States economy increased in size, in real terms, by just about 150-fold” (Should The United States Return To The Gold Standard?, 2013). This record of growth was so large that the United States’ economy was over twice as large as Germany’s, our closest rival. Domitrovic also appreciated the stability the gold standard provided if managed correctly, because it limited inflation and slowed rises in consumer prices. In addition, it limited the government’s ability to create money as the government could only print money if there was enough gold to back
During this period, global consumer price inflation presented a trend of fluctuation reduction. According to World Bank data (2015), world real GDP growth slightly which is from 2.4 to 3.3 in 2012-2016. Moreover, weaker investment environment lead to the job creation rate decrease of 1.4% every year after 2011, the unemployment rate is high correspondingly (world economic situation prospects 2016). Industrial commodities like energy, metals and minerals both decline more than 35 each from the beginning of 2011 to the end of 2014 and this trend will continue (World Bank 2015). Meanwhile, China as the world’s largest exporter and the second largest importer country, economic growth becomes slowing than before (Chen 2016). It has the significant impact on the global trading environment. At the same time, global trading volume