Bayesian Ridge Model

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Introduction

Have you ever wondered why your favourite sports team decides to sign a certain player or make a trade that alters the current roster? If you have, you’ve probably thought that you could have made a better deal than what the general manager originally agreed upon. However these kinds of deals go through a long process before a decision is made. Part of this process includes evaluating the players that you are getting through the use of data analysis. Data analytics has become such a prominent part of sports in today’s society and has changed the way teams make personnel decisions, especially in basketball. So once you are able to understand that being a general manager for a sports team is not that easy, you can appreciate all …show more content…

This site is incredibly useful to determine how much each NBA player is valued because it gathers data from reliable basketball sources such as: NBA.com, Basketball Reference and HoopsHype. Not only that but the data that is collected and cleaned out for any players that may skew the models based on their high stats and relatively low amount of games played. This site also bases a player’s value on different regression models. These models include: Bayes ridge, lasso, polynomial, linear regression and many more. Although for my analysis I will be using the Bayesian ridge model. Not only is this model determined one of the most accurate by it’s creator, but it is also great at accurately predicting a player’s worth with all of the data that is available on each player. And just like every regression model, each one comes with coefficients that weigh varying stats differently. For example the Bayesian ridge model favors heavily on how many points, rebounds and assists a player gets, while not taking too kindly how many fouls or turnovers a player commits during each game. Therefore, with such a useful tool and so much data at my disposal, I will be able to determine each player’s value in dollars that the Toronto Raptors are getting from their players based on their stats from the 2016-2017 NBA season. Subsequently by being able to establish each player’s worth I can compare their value …show more content…

In the NBA there is a floor and a ceiling when it comes to player contracts and this tool has each model scale the minimum and maximum contract prices for the 2017-18 season. So to put the concept of NBA contacts into perspective, the highest paid player (Stephen Curry) is making about $34,682,550, while the cost of a minimum deal is around $815,615. The NBA is also a league that uses a luxury tax system. This means that teams must pay an incremental rate based on how much team payroll exceeds the tax limit. This year the NBA has set the luxury tax at around 119.266 million. Many teams try to avoid paying tax unless they are competitive enough to win a championship or because the team owners don’t want to spend the

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