Predicting the Unpredictable
At the heart of the debate between Goldstone and Keddie is the question: Can revolutions be predicted? The former believes that we can successfully predict revolutions so long as these three conditions are met: 1) the state is in a crisis, 2) the elites are alienated from the state and are in conflict with each other, and 3) there is a large portion of the mass that can be mobilized for protest (Emirbayer and Goodwin 1996). Keddie disagrees by saying that revolutions cannot be predicted retrospectively because they are “unintentional products of the complex interactions of a large number of choices made by potentially numerous relevant actors over a lengthy period.” (Emirbayer and Goodwin 1996, 362) Between the
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However, I think it is not a question of who studies revolutions but a matter of what a revolution is—the nature of what is studied. I would liken revolutions to volcanic activity: Revolutions are volatile and tricky to predict. A volcano might spit out ash and increase its seismic activities and scientists will take these as signs of an impending eruption, but the volcano does not erupt. A society might show signs that it is on its way or is further down the road to a revolution but one does not occur. Clearly, the signs are there; in the case of a society, the conditions are present, but why did it not occur? This is the question I would like to raise to Goldstone. A seemingly dormant society erupts into a revolution while another which is considered more advanced in the path to a revolution does not have one. This is because structural conditions do not completely determine revolutions. There are crucial “invisible differences” that are intervening (Goldstone …show more content…
Cultural frameworks are existing “myths, values, stories, and symbols that are prevalent in a population (Goldstone 2001). Ideologies must rest on existing cultural frameworks. This is because ideologies provide legitimacy to a revolution. It also accelerates revolutionary momentum as it gives hope of a successful revolution and it binds multi-group and cross-class coalitions with various cultural frameworks (Goldstone 2001). An example of this is the EDSA I Revolution. More than the human rights violations of the Marcos regime, there was a dominant sentiment that a valued democracy was being stolen by the current regime. This solidified the solidarity among those in the People Power
Due to the fact that this area was constructed in colonial form, decolonization was attempted so that they could gain independent status. Once this started, these are when the challenges presented themselves. A sense of insurgency erupted and rebellion against the government occurred. The Muslim separatists and the communist rebels went against the government and challenged it. The problem was that Southeast Asia attempted to decolonize, but since the Americans won the Philippines from Spain in war they had their own rules. This caused problems between the both and mad an even bigger challenge for the regions of Southeast Asia to gain their independence. Once independence was gained, dictatorship with the region became a major challenge. For example, a man named Ferdinand Marcos inhibited many bad influences and was known for rigging the
In his book, The Anatomy of Revolution, Crane Brinton describes four historically significant revolutions in modern states, the English Revolution of the 1640s, the American Revolution of 1776, the French Revolution of 1789, and the Russian Revolution of 1917, and compares uniform trends and commonalities within those revolutions. Brinton hypothesizes that those revolutions have specific similarities in their inception, manifestation, conduct, and conclusion.
A revolution takes place when a group does not agree with the current government and the policies they have in place. In some cases, revolutions turn violent during the attempt to overthrow the government. This is exactly what took place during the French Revolution, 1789 and the Bolshevik Revolution, 1917. Overall both revolutions found the beginning in the poor. The poor struggled under the rule of the monarchy; there was a strain on resources and high taxes. There were famine and food shortages due to bad weather, and WW1 respectively. In France, the nobility, first and second estates, did not have to pay these high taxes which further angered the poor. Both French and Russian nobility and monarchy were to blame for the suffering experienced. In the French and Bolshevik Revolutions there were philosophical ideas that guided the people to put a stop to their suffering, these ideas fueled extremist groups that brought upon violence and overall the goal of these Revolutions were not permanent. French and Bolshevik Revolutions had revolutionary ideas that went hand in hand with revolutionary violence and ultimately left the countries in chaos for some time after.
Revolutions have occurred throughout history. The evolution of revolutions might be comparable to the different stages of an illness. Similar to a sickness, revolutions can be studied in stages. The different stages of an illness included the inoculation, symptomatic, crisis, and convalescence stages. In each of the stages, events occurred that may lead to the next stage in the development of the disease. Resembling an illness, revolutions also happened in stages. The revolutions stages are comparative to the stages of an illness like the flu. The fever model could be used to show the progression of the Haitian and the Gran Colombian Revolutions.
By observing the recurring trends throughout history, an individual can conclude that the modern world has evolved through a series of revolutionary eras. Revolutions have occurred since the beginning of mankind and continue to progress into the future. Ranging from a sharp change in political organization or structure, to social divisions within society, all the way to forward-thinking innovations, revolutions have impacted the course of history in numerous ways. Although many revolutions are titled with a specific name to identify the precise location or particular group of people involved, such as the American Revolution or the French Revolution, there are many occurrences in which a revolution is simply identified with a categorization term. However, among all the revolutions that have occurred in known history, there is a specific revolutionary period that has aided in the progress of humanity in addition to establishing the early concepts that shape our modern world. Originating in Great Britain, the Industrial Revolution has transformed the lifestyles of people around the world. However, the progressive transformation introduced a series of outcomes contrary to the prior regime. The Industrial Revolution triggered the growth of Great Britain’s economy, reset the social class divisions, and led to the formation of political reformation.
What is a revolution? By definition, it means the overthrow of a government by those who are governed. That is exactly what the French and the Mexican revolutions were all about. The living conditions and overall treatment of the poor, pheasants, lower class, last man on the totem pole or what ever you want to call them, was a large factor in the coming of these revolutions. The "Those who are governed" are exactly what the lower class people were.
Which means all people, not giving thought to any struggle in the past. A revolution is a radical and pervasive change in society and the social structure, especially one made suddenly and often accompanied by violence. As stated before, society changed, but the social structure of the society did not. When observing historical context, this can be a revolution because social structures either reverted back to the old ways then changed to an extent.
Chenoweth, Erica, and Maria J. Stephan. 2011. Why Civil Resistance Works : The Strategic Logic of
The type of revolution that may ensue is unknown, but it is possible for Marx and Rousseau’s dream to come true, if adopted by the majority and entered into willingly.
A revolution is no piece of cake. To make a revolution, there are a few necessary ingredients, like a reason to revolt, a well-organized battle plan, and a powerful leader. Mix these all together, and there it is. A powerful Revolution. There are two specific revolutions that are very similar, and very successful.
Most revolutions occur because of widespread dissatisfaction with an existing system. Poverty and injustice under cruel, corrupt, or incapable rulers combined with social problems is a recipe for disaster. One can only push people so far. If other ways of establishing the changes that must be made does not work, then creating a revolution might be the only option left.
The wealth, power, and prestige of the bourgeoisie, acquired mostly from their control of institutions, industries, and means of production, enabled them to force upon the proletariat their economic, political, and religious ideologies. These are the same ideologies "used to maintain certain social relations" (Eagleton 466). These very ideologies are what "make the masses loyal to the very institutions that are the source of their exploitation" (Tischler 16). Once the proletariat ceases to believe in or abide by those ideologies, revolt is inevitable, and the moment it occurs, so does the destruction or alteration of a single controlling and tyrannical power altogether. Thus, it can be said that "the bourgeoisie reign is doomed when economic conditions are ripe and when a working class united by solidarity, aware of its common interests and energized by an appropriate system of ideas, confronts its disunited antagonists" (Rideneir).
Throughout history, countless uprisings have occurred. Historians classify any forcible overthrow of a government or social order in favor of a new system as a revolution. The success or failure of a revolution is directly related to the revolution’s causes and courses. The French Revolution was more successful than the Nicaraguan Revolution, because the Nicaraguan Revolution left the country in social and financial ruin, foreign powers had much greater interference, and it precipitated a period of political unrest with multiple leadership changes.
Culture can be defined as “A pattern of basic assumptions invented, discovered or developed by a given group as it learns to cope with its problems of external adaptation and internal integration that has worked well enough to be considered valid, and therefore to be taught to the new members as the correct way to perceive, think and feel in relation to those problems”. Schein (1988)
The political culture of a country is the basic values, attitudes, beliefs, and ideas of the people t...