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Macro- & micro-economic analysis
Advantages And Disadvantages Of Micro And Macro Economics
Macro- & micro-economic analysis
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Recommended: Macro- & micro-economic analysis
The Poole Model is a macroeconomic model where its main objective is to answer the discussion on whether monetary policy should be conducted using a money-supply rule or an interest-rate rule when managing the economy. In the Poole Model, the Central Bank’s objective is to minimize the loss function:
L = E [(Y - Yf )2
The Poole Model extends the IS-LM model where it takes shocks into account. The monetary authority can either decide to set interest rates which would allow money supply to be determined by demand; or it could directly set the money supply, which would allow the interest rate to be determined by supply and demand for money. The aim of both of these is to minimize output volatility. Under these two methods, the level of output volatility is dependent on specific characteristics of the economy.
Setting the rate of interest (i) creates a
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Shocks to spending will cause the IS curve to shift. Spending shocks directly change the aggregate demand at each interest rate and also the level of income. This impact of a spending shock is shown below. Due to the spending shock, the IS function may lie anywhere between IS1 and IS2. If a money-supply rule is implemented, then the money supply will be set at M*(Yf). This would cause the LM function to be set at LM1 and cause aggregate demand to vary between Y1 and Y2. However, should the monetary authorities choose to set interest rate at r*, then the LM function will be LM2. This would result in aggregate demand varying from anywhere between Y0 and Y3. The diagram shows us that there is a problem when deciding which monetary policy to use when there is shocks to spending. This problem would be solved by setting the money supply at M* (Yf), whilst letting the interest rate fluctuate as it will. Along with this, if policy makers are only concerned with volatility in the goods market, then the money-supply rule is better as it has automatic stabilizers built
Monetary Policy is another policy used in Keynesianism which is a list of protocols designed to regulate the economy by setting the amount of money that is in circulation and controlled interest levels. The Federal Reserve system, also known as the central banking system in the U.S., which holds control of this policy. Monetary policy has three tools used by the Federal Reserve to enforce this policy. Reserve Requirement is the first tool that determines the lowest amount of money a bank must possess and is not able to lend out. The second way to enforce monetary policy is by using the discount rate or the interest rate a bank will charge.
The Classical economists believe that these are “temporary” changes that will correct themselves in the long run. They feel that an economy will always tend towards operating at its potential output (as given by the long-run aggregate supply curve. Nothing needs to be done by the government because normal market forces will serve to self-correct these issues. On the other hand, Keynesian economics argue that the gap between the lower and the potential levels of output is due to a change in aggregate demand. They argue that this gap can exist for a long time and that the gap can be pushed to close faster if the government enacts fiscal and monetary policies. There are differences in how each policy works to close the recessionary gap caused by a drop in aggregate
A theme that dominates modern discussions of macro policy is the importance of expectations, and economists have devoted a great deal of thought to expectations and the economy. Change in expectations can shift the aggregate demand (AD) curve; expectations of inflation can cause inflation. For this reason expectations are central to all policy discussions, and what people believe policy will be significantly influences the effectiveness of the policy.
Robert E. Lucas Jr.’s journal article, “Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century” in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, uses both his own and other economist’s models to track and predict economic industrialization and growth by per capita income. Using models of growth on a country wide basis, Lucas is able to track the rate at which nations become industrialized, and the growth rate of the average income once industrialization has taken place. In doing so, he has come to the conclusion that the average rate of growth among industrialized nations is around 2% for the last 30 years, but is higher the closer the nation is to the point in time that it first industrialized. This conclusion is supported by his models, and is a generally accepted idea. Lucas goes on to say that the farther we get from the industrial revolution the average growth rate is more likely to hit 1.5% as a greater percentage of countries become industrialized.
In the past, the system of monetary policy is based on the Classical Gold Standard. In the article, “Review of: European monetary union: Lessons from the classical gold standard”, Stanley W stated how the gold standard lasted from the periods of 1880 to 1913. In the beginning, central banks used interest rates to drive short term capital inflows, which avoided gold movements and made sure that the prices adjust relatively. However, this adjustment process didn’t work. The author then argued that long term international capital flows, migration, and differences in tariff barriers, also known as the “Three Pillars of the Classical Gold Standard”, contributes to the reason why developing countries were able to maintain their current account deficits until they could face the competition with the modernized countries. However, in accordance to the article “Interest rate interactions in the classical gold standard, 1880-1914: Was there any monetary independence?” by Bordo and Macdonald, the Classical Gold Standard is not a sustainable monetary system because it required some countries to be independent when monetary policy operates. This is especially conflicting in the modern day structure in which central banks need to use a targeting zone to achieve their purpose. In the modern era, quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional type of monetary policy used by the Federal Reserve to respond to the deep recession. According to the article “Quantitative easing and Proposals for Reform of Monetary Policy Operations: by authors Scott and L.Randall, the impact of conducting QE on interest rates is lower long term yields when compared to the short term ones. As noted by authors Bora, Omar and Georges in their article “Financial Crisis and...
Monetary Policy involves using interest rates or changes to money supply to influence the levels of consumer spending and Aggregate Demand.
The problem with balancing an economy is that human judgment and evaluation of economic situations enter into the equation. Establishing a constant growth level in the money supply would eliminate the decision making process of the central banker. The problem with human intervention is the short-sided nature of many of the policies designed to aid the economy. Such interventions, which yields unintended negative consequences, is the result of the time inconsistency problem. This problem is understood through situations during which central bankers conduct monetary policy in a discretionary way and pursue expansionary policies that are attractive in the short-run, but lead to detrimental long-run outcomes. Friedman believes that by leaving money growth decisions to an individual, the results are poor long-run management and eventually high inflation rates, an obvious detriment to the economy.
...y with abundant liquidity: a new operating framework for the Federal Reserve. Policy Brief PB14, 4.
In the study of macroeconomics there are several sub factors that affect the economy either favorably or adversely. One dynamic of macroeconomics is monetary policy. Monetary policy consists of deliberate changes in the money supply to influence interest rates and thus the level of spending in the economy. “The goal of a monetary policy is to achieve and maintain price level stability, full employment and economic growth.” (McConnell & Brue, 2004).
A single firm or company is a producer, all the producers in the market form and industry, and the people places and consumers that an Industry plans to sell their goods is the market. So supply is simply the amount of goods producers, or an industry is willing to sell at a specific prices in a specific time. Subsequently there is a law of supply that reflects a direct relationship between price and quantity supplied. All else being equal the quantity supplied of an item increases as the price of that item increases. Supply curve represents the relationship between the price of the item and the quantity supplied. The Quantity supplied in a market is just the amount that firms are willing to produce and sell now.
Money Supply plays an important role in macroeconomic analysis, especially in selecting an appropriate monetary and fiscal policy. Considerably, I am yet to come across theoretical work that has been done on this topic (analysis money supply and its impact on other variable i.e. inflation, interest rate, real GDP and nominal GDP). However some other topics similar to this one have been done by AL-SHARKAS, Adel, where he uses the same technique and models on the topic ‘out put response to shocks to interest rate, inflation and stock returns. His work investigates the relationship between the Jordanian output and other macroeconomics variables such as inflation, interest rate and stock returns. His paper employs the VAR approach method of Lee (1992) to analyze the relation and dynamic interaction among variables. The IRF and the FEVD from the VAR model are computed in order to investigate interrelationships within the system. The empirical results indicate that Interest rate and inflation are weakly negatively correlated and real stock returns and inflation is very weakly positively correlated for all leads and lags are negatively associated. Furthermore, the response of output (IPG) to shocks in stock returns (R1) is strongly positive up to the first 6 periods and after which the effect almost dies. This indicates that the relationship between stocks returns (R1) and real activity (IPG) is positive and inflation has a negative impact on IPG (Adel A. Al-Sharkas 2004).
The appropriate role of government in the economy consists of six major functions of interventions in the markets economy. Governments provide the legal and social framework, maintain competition, provide public goods and services, national defense, income and social welfare, correct for externalities, and stabilize the economy. The government also provides polices that help support the functioning of markets and policies to correct situations when the market fails. As well as, guiding the overall pace of economic activity, attempting to maintain steady growth, high levels of employment, and price stability. By applying the fiscal policy which adjusts spending and tax rates or monetary policy which manage the money supply and control the use of credit, it can slow down or speed up the economy's rate of growth in the process, affecting the level of prices and employment to increase or decrease.
In every economy, there are 4 main and 4 additional objectives of government macroeconomics objectives. We can point out that the objectives have their own conflicts which difficult to carry it out at the same time between government macroeconomic objectives. Therefore, government use different policies to minimize the conflict.
Whereas Milton Friedman argued that consumption is related to permanent rather than current income. He was therefore more sceptical about he usefulness of a tax change for stabilisation purposes than one who believes that consumption depends on current disposable income. Policy makers usually use Fiscal policy to alter the level, timing or composition of government expenditure and/or the level, timing or structure of tax payments. And they use Monetary policy to alter the supply of money and/or credit and also to alter interest rates. But some policies are not always successful; a good example was the decision to use monetary policy to solve the liquidity trap.
The macroeconomic environment is a dynamic environment, which could not remain unchanged (Gajewsky 2015). There are many factors influence the global macroeconomic environment, such as interest rate, exchange rate, GDP,aggregate demand, monetary policy and other macroeconomic variable (Oxelheim and Wihlborg 2008). These factors are closely associated with commodity price.