Predictive Policing : Smart Or Scary?

Predictive Policing: Smart or Scary?

I consider myself very lucky to have one of the most rewarding jobs in the world: I predict the future. I don’t have a crystal ball or hear spirits talking to me. Instead, I use data from crimes that have happened in the past, to try to determine when the offenders will strike again. It’s far from perfect, but the methods are effective. I chose to pursue a degree in Computer Science so that I can develop better analytical tools to assist me and others like me in our efforts to keep people safe. You may not have ever heard about a job like mine existing, but you may have heard about a controversial tool that many police departments across the world are using called “predictive policing”. I chose this topic as it is relevant to both my chosen career and major.

Since the development of modern police forces in the 1820s, administrators have been on a constant search for better ways of solving crimes and preventing new crimes from being committed. With the advent of affordable desktop computers in the 1980s, the field of crime analysis emerged to track patterns, trends and series of criminal activity using maps and math. Today, the technology exists to make predictions on future criminal activity based on historical, geographical and sociological data in a variety of ways that are all referred to as predictive policing. The term “predictive policing” can be a bit intimidating at first, as it inspires haunting visions of people being arrested for crimes that they have not yet committed, much like the concept of “precrime” established in Philip K. Dick’s Minority Report. In reality, a basic predictive policing system is created by the combination of several methods of analysis that have ...

... middle of paper ...

...ing is completed, and it is discovered that a new bar recently opened up within a quarter mile of the train station, and the police have responded multiple times for unruly patrons. The bar is found to have multiple health code violations and is closed, and the batteries at the train station immediately cease. This is an example of Risk Terrain Modeling, which considers the geographic makeup of an area to calculate the risk of future criminal acts (“Overview,” n.d., para. 2).

By combining hot spots, repeat victimization and Risk Terrain Modeling, predictive policing equips law enforcement agencies to better prevent future crimes from occurring. Predictive policing is not something to be feared, but embraced, as it uses tried and true analytical methods, increases the effectiveness of the police and makes the most efficient use of the public’s tax dollars.