Michael Bloomberg's Third Party Candidates

Two factors, in particular, could potentially hinder Michael Bloomberg’s bid for the presidency. The first is that he plans to run on an independent ticket. Historically, third party Presidential campaigns have been largely unsuccessful. A third party candidate has never won a U.S. presidential election. The reason for this is primarily systemic. The United State’s electoral system functions under a multiseat plurality, meaning, “… a third party would have to win the largest share of votes in several states to have any realistic chance of winning.” However, the likelihood of a third party winning the largest share of votes in any state, let alone several states is slim, partly because voters feel their vote will be “wasted” on a minor party

Bloomberg has already missed the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, which received a considerable amount of media coverage given their early positions on the primary calendar, a key factor in candidates connecting with voters and thereby gaining ideological and monetary support (monetary support is of least concern to Bloomberg). Success in these first two primaries can provide momentum to a candidate’s campaign and propel them into later primaries. Further, primaries have filing deadlines, and Bloomberg has missed the filing deadline for a majority of the state primaries.
By missing these filing deadlines Bloomberg cannot achieve ballot access and has forfeited a great number of votes and essentially delegates to the convention. An article by Brookings stated, “… the candidate who has missed filing deadlines through the end of January, has potentially forfeited 2,232

But, in Bloomberg’s opinion, the political atmosphere did not align for a successful run from an Independent candidate. This time around, however, he is willing to run if the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders and the Republicans nominate Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. Because Sanders, Trump, and Cruz are not the “status quo” per say, Bloomberg and his advisors feel he has the best shot at success as an Independent in the 2016 presidential campaign. If Bloomberg decides to run and is unsuccessful, he can still influence the race by taking away votes from a major party candidate, more than likely a Democratic candidate. This happened in the 2000 election when Independent candidate Ralph Nader took votes away from Al Gore, which ultimately contributed to George W. Bush’s win. In this instance, Bloomberg would be acting as a