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The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Forms: Theoretical Aspects and Empirical Studies
The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Forms: Theoretical Aspects and Empirical Studies
Efficient market hypothesis empirical studies
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The aim of this report is to evaluate and validate passive investment strategies and advantages of having index funds in the portfolio. The importance of passive investment strategy is initially justified with the help of theory on efficient markets. The report then provides evidence that indexing still is a vital aspect of investment strategy and is not influenced by the efficient market theory. The report also gives a brief overview on how investors utilize indexing to minimize transaction cost by replicating the market index in their portfolio. Further, the success of indexing in US, UK and bond markets is highlighted with the help of evidence from past research on passive investment strategies. The later section of the report provides brief introduction of behavioral finance and how psychological biases affect investor’s behavior and prices. It also provides its contrasting viewpoint with respect to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and analyzes the effects of mispricing on average returns achieved by investor.
Passive Management Strategy
The supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that active management is a largely wasted effort and does not support the expenses incurred due to the mispricing of stocks (Barberis and Thaler, 2003).Therefore, they advocate passive investment strategy that makes no possible attempt to beat the market. A passive strategy involves minimum input and instead relies on diversification of the portfolio in order to match the performance of the market index. Passive management is usually characterized by a buy-and-hold strategy because the efficient market theory indicates that stock prices are at fair levels, given all available information and it makes no sense in frequent buying a...
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...his fact is utilized by the investors to plot wining strategies. Furthermore, the evidence from this study suggests that it is not necessary to know predictable patterns and market inefficiency in order to implement profitable investing strategies. Taken together, these results suggest that investors are able to achieve higher returns and minimize transaction cost by adopting indexing strategy which mimics the market. The second major findings are the contrasting view of behavioral finance. Two decades ago, many financial economists supported the Efficient Market Hypothesis because of the forces of arbitrage. Today it can be realized that it was indeed a very naive view and the limits of arbitrage can result in substantial mispricing. Thus through this research it is understood that absence of profitable investment strategy does not infer the absence of mispricing.
The active investment management is the investing style which the portfolio managers believe that the market is not efficient and the mispricing is existing. Therefore, they could outperform the market and gain the excess return through a series of investing strategy, such as stock selection and market timing. On the opposite, passive investment management is the one which the portfolio managers believe that the market is efficient and no one can beat the market so that there is no excess return. As a result, the passive portfolio managers always seek to replicate the performance of the market index to make
During the decade of the 1990’s through the year 2001 there were some major shifts in the deployment of investment assets. Based on a variety of measures, mutual funds grew dramatically as vehicles for investing in portfolios of stock. Specifically net cash flows into equity funds grew from $13 billion in 1990 to $310 billion in the year 2000.1 During that same period the number of equity funds rose from 1,100 to 4,395, while the number of accounts in those funds increased from 22 million to 162 million. The cumulative effect of the new money injected into equity funds, together with reinvestment of dividends, plus the attendant stock price appreciation has produced a phenomenal growth in total net assets. The market value of those assets mushroomed from $239 billion in 1990 to $3,962 billion in 2000.
The efficient market hypothesis has been one of the main topics of academic finance research. The efficient market hypotheses also know as the joint hypothesis problem, asserts that financial markets lack solid hard information in making decisions. Efficient market hypothesis claims it is impossible to beat the market because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information . According to efficient market hypothesis stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments . In reality once cannot always achieve returns in excess of average market return on a risk-adjusted basis. They have been numerous arguments against the efficient market hypothesis. Some researches point out the fact financial theories are subjective, in other words they are ideas that try to explain how markets work and behave.
This assignment is concerned with your understanding of the key issues relative to portfolio analysis and investment. In completing this assignment you are to limit your scope to the US stock markets only. Use the Cybrary, the Internet, and course resources to write a 2-page essay which you will use with new clients of your financial planning business which addresses the following issues and/or practices:
Stock market prediction is the method of predicting the price of a company’s stock. It is believed that stock price is lead by random walk hypothesis. Random walk hypothesis states that stock market price matures randomly and hence can’t be predicted. Pesaran (2003) states that it is often argued that if stock markets are efficient then it should not be possible to predict stock returns. In fact, it is easily seen that stock market returns will be non-predictable only if market efficiency is combined with risk neutrality. On the other hand it is also been concluded that using variance ratio tests long horizon stock market returns can be predicted....
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is an ex ante concept, which is built on the portfolio theory established by Markowitz (Bhatnagar and Ramlogan 2012). It enhances the understanding of elements of asset prices, specifically the linear relationship between risk and expected return (Perold 2004). The direct correlation between risk and return is well defined by the security market line (SML), where market risk of an asset is associated with the return and risk of the market along with the risk free rate to estimate expected return on an asset (Watson and Head 1998 cited in Laubscher 2002).
Market efficiency signifies how “quickly and accurately” does relevant information have its effect on the asset prices. Depending upon the degree of efficiency of a market or a sector thereof, the return earned by an investor will vary from the normal return.
Hensel, C. R., Ezra, D., & Ilkiw, J. H. (1991). The Importance of the Asset Allocation Decision.
According to the Efficient Market Theory, it should be extremely difficult for an investor to develop a "system" that consistently selects stocks that exhibit higher than normal returns over a period of time. It should also not be possible for a company to "cook the books" to misrepresent the value of stocks and bonds. An analysis of current literature, however, indicates that companies can and do "beat the system" and manipulate information to make stocks appear to perform above average. An understanding of the underlying inefficient "human" factors in the market equation is necessary in order to account for the flaw in Efficient Market Theory.
Chapter 11 closes our discussion with several insights into the efficient market theory. There have been many attempts to discredit the random walk theory, but none of the theories hold against empirical evidence. Any pattern that is noticed by investors will disappear as investors try to exploit it and the valuation methods of growth rate are far too difficult to predict. As we said before the random walk concludes that no patterns exist in the market, pricing is accurate and all information available is already incorporated into the stock price. Therefore the market is efficient. Even if errors do occur in short-run pricing, they will correct themselves in the long run. The random walk suggest that short-term prices cannot be predicted and to buy stocks for the long run. Malkiel concludes the best way to consistently be profitable is to buy and hold a broad based market index fund. As the market rises so will the investors returns since historically the market continues to rise as a whole.
A continuing rise in prices is likely to attract speculative investors who do not plan to hold the investments for the long term; Pepper and Oliver refer to their investments as being loosely held. A long period of rising prices would lead to many investors needing to sell shares in order to raise money for other purposes, and to many speculators with loosely held shares. When the expectation of price rises disappears, both groups of investors will sell. Share prices fall sharply’. It is consistent to figure 1, Chart of NASDAQ closing values from 1994 to 2008.
There is a lot of research work going on in this particular field, more so since the crisis of 2008. The purpose of this article was to make readers aware of the subject .Behavioral finance is an interesting mix of logics, psychology and economics. Budding investors and management students should look into this in more detail so that they are better equipped to make financial decisions.
As a result, investors purchase stocks after prices have increased expecting the rise in price to continue and they ignore stocks when their prices are below their fundamental values. In actual practice, investors should have a clearly defined set of analytical procedure that they test and retest in order to clarify and upgrade the stocks over the long run. Regret or loss aversion: Regret
2. Trippi Robert R., Lee Jae K., State-of-the-Art Portfolio Selection Using Knowledge Based Systems to Enhance Investment Performance, Probus Publishing Company, 1992.
The Modern portfolio theory {MPT}, "proposes how rational investors will use diversification to optimize their portfolios, and how an asset should be priced given its risk relative to the market as a whole. The basic concepts of the theory are the efficient frontier, Capital Asset Pricing Model and beta coefficient, the Capital Market Line and the Securities Market Line. MPT models the return of an asset as a random variable and a portfolio as a weighted combination of assets; the return of a portfolio is thus also a random variable and consequently has an expected value and a variance.