Infectious diseases had major impacts and influences in the human history. Diseases such as Spanish Influenza or the Bubonic Plague have remarkable positions in history. Disease spread models are used to predict outcomes of an epidemic. These models are used to calculate the impact of an infectious disease, funding required for mass vaccinations and data for public health departments. The earliest mathematical model of infectious diseases was created by Daniel Bernoulli in 1766. This model was used to predict the outcome of inoculation against smallpox disease. In the modern world, these models are created using various software programs. The reason why I chose this subject is because I previously worked on some modelling simulations. Also my father is in the healthcare sector, so this topic looked very exciting to me. Predicting outcomes of infectious epidemics may save thousands of lives and millions of dollars. In the healthcare sector, accuracy and reliability is very important. In this project, the work function of the SIR epidemic model and some of its derivatives will be explored along with some theorems about this models. SIR model is the fundamental model of almost all modern epidemic models. SIR model is the most widely used disease spread model in the world. Also it is a simple epidemic model which has mathematics that commensurate with our class.
SIR Model
The model is created by W.O. Kermack and A.G. McKendrick in 1927. SIR Model has three compartments: Susceptible, infected and removed.
S: denotes the number of individuals who are not infected with the disease. These people are vulnerable to catch the disease.
I: represents the number of individuals who have been infected. These people can transfer the disease to pe...
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...we use one of these three models for Malaria the predictions would be incorrect. Malaria cannot be transmitted with air or water, it is either transmitted by mosquitos or by blood from an infective individual. The main mathematical concept behind the SIR models are differential equations. The graphs are created by computer programs that uses mathematical algorithms. The last model I explained is the most accurate model in all those three models. However it also have missing points, for example the mortality rate of disease is not included but it is a very important parameter. To improve SIR Model and its successors, help from doctors and health specialists are needed. Creating an epidemic model requires a synergy between programmers, mathematicians and health professionals. Nevertheless, creating an accurate model requires financial support and hard-working experts.
Another guest speaker and guide in this podcast is David Quammen. He talks about how the epidemiologists were trying to figure out what this new disease was and how they were thinking that maybe it was a sexually transmitted disease. So, the CDC launched the study of a group of about thirty patients came from New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco to see who had had sexual contact with who. They led as a series of interviews: “Please name all the people that you have had sex with”. After these surveys the CDC eventually released the results in the form of a diagram, like a network drive with circles representing patients and lines representing sexual contact. In each patient, each circle was numbered so that they could tell who is who. They noticed: New York seven, Los Angeles twelve etc… and soon they noticed a common denominator in this huge spider web of connections. One little circle, numbered zero: PATIENT ZERO. That was the first time they ever used the term patient zero.
Yes, I think Kirk developed a tolerance for alcohol. Tolerance is the reduced response to alcohol (or any drug) after repeated experiences with it. Kirk developed a tolerance for alcohol because he had been consistently drinking for several years. He would drink excessively and have multiple drinks in a short amount of time. In fact, Kirk began taking in a lot of alcohol in high school and was never a “moderate’ drinker. Therefore, it was clear that as Kirk was in adulthood he would just have to drink more to get the same feeling.
Since Plagues and Peoples covers several subjects of knowledge, he helps the reader understand key concepts by fully explaining parasitism and its dependence on humans and animals. People in the field of history, which make up a majority of this books audience, would need more insight into epidemiology to grasp its key concepts. It would not be likely for a historian to be knowledgeable in a branch of medical science that deals with the incidence, distribution, and control of disease in populations.
Infectious diseases are the organisms (bacterias, viruses, fungi and parasites) that cause disorders in the human body. They are very helpful to the human system, but can as well cause infections to the human bodies under certain situation. And for a disease to be infectious, there is what is called ‘’chain of infection’’ which means each chain must connect to the other for the concept (infectious diseases) to be effective. And this can be seen in the below diagram:
Ebola, a major threat to today's society, is threatening all parts of today's culture. In this paper one will be presented with six major points of analyses. The first an outbreak timeline, the next three are a basic overview of the deadly virus. In the fifth, one will be presented with what things are being blamed for these violent outbreaks. And in the sixth and final point one will be shown what is being done to better the situation.
An emerging infectious disease (EID) can be defined as ‘an infectious disease whose incidence is increasing following its first introduction into a new host population or whose incidence is increasing in an existing host population as a result of long-term changes in its underlying epidemiology’(Engering, Hogerwerf, & Slingenbergh, 2013). One of the most studied infection worldwide is Helicobacter pylori infection (H.pylori).
The movie Outbreak is a wonderful portrayal of how the Chain of Infection works in an epidemic and pandemic outbreak of a disease. The shows how quickly the disease gained power and was responsible for sickness and death in a small community. Pathogens that invade the body have 5 requirements for a successful invasion on their host whether it is a human or animal. I will further review how the movie successfully reflects the reservoir/host, portal of exit, mode of transmission, portal of entry and susceptible host to provide the perfect Outbreak of the disease. The same model still used today in science.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC] (2012), an epidemic curve, which is a histogram of number of cases by time of onset of illness, would in useful in identifying and visualizing this health care agency’s outbreak’s magnitude. As you mentioned, the onset of symptoms experienced by the employees of this small health care agency vary greatly, and it is apparent that age is not a significant factor in regards to this illness. It is significant that 5 employees (Leah, Ann, Pat, Letitia, and Denise) had either ill children, or an ill husband at home during the time of this illness outbreak. In addition, it is noteworthy that 5 employees (Joan, Leah, Marie, Leslie, and Michelle) saw patient Mrs. D, which indicates in
infection (HAI) is linked to nearly 90000 deaths annually, is ranked as the fifth leading cause of
The epidemiology of both dengue and West Nile Virus (WNV) are based on mosquito patterns and their interaction with human. Dengue has plagued nearly every continent and continues to be a major public health problem. WNV, on the other hand, is a relatively new human public health problem, especially in the US. It might be possible to model control efforts found effective against the globally distributed dengue for control of West Nile Virus right here in the US. I was in high school when WNV hit my home state of Colorado and I was able to see first hand the impact this epidemic and wanted to look at it retrospectively with a public health perspective.
We began our presentation with a global transmission activity. This activity aimed to show the global spread of the disease by trying to piece together the minimal information everyone received in order to find a so called ‘index patient’. This index patient was made to mimic the ‘index patient’ of Liu
3.7 million people that have this infection and there is 0% in the death of catching this
When a large proportion of a population is vaccinated against a contagious disease. It is difficult to spread as most members of the community are protected against
...s are a;so known as viral loads and used to detect infection status and treatment.
Many diseases get a lot of exposure and people know them well. One, however, gets looked over but it affects, “1% to 3% of people.” Geographic