Deterence in International Politics

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Deterrence is a theory of International relations based in Realism. Essentially, it tries to explain the situation of when two or more states threaten retaliation if attacked, in order to deter the attack. It is therefore possible to very simply state deterrence as "You hit me, I hit you." For this essay, two main questions have to be addressed, ‘Has it worked?’ and ‘Does it make sense?’ To answer these questions, I will firstly define what deterrence is, I will then examine some of the main arguments for and against it, in theory and in reality; finally, I will show some of the consequences of states following such a policy. Deterrence, as already stated, can concern itself with any form of threatened counter-attack, however, for this essay, I shall be concentrating on Nuclear deterrence, using examples from the cold war, therefore, when the word ‘deterrence’ is used, it should be taken as ‘nuclear deterrence’. Hedley Bull describes deterrence as follows: "To say that country A deters country B from doing something is to imply the following: (i) That Country A conveys to Country B a threat to inflict punishment or deprivation of values if it embarks on a certain course of action; (ii) That Country B might otherwise embark on that course of action; (iii) That Country B believes that Country A has the capacity and the will to carry out the threat, and decides for this reason that the course of action is not worthwhile." Therefore, for deterrence to occur, a state must convey a message to another state, usually "these will be the public an authoritative utterances of government officials." Secondly, to use Hedley Bulls’ language, country B would consider following a course of action which Country A does not wish and does not because of the threat - not because it has no interest to. Thirdly, Country A must be able to convince Country B that it is capable of carrying out its deterrence threat and is prepared to use it. Mutual deterrence is where two or more states deter each other from following a set of actions - effectively a stand off or a stalemate between the actors. The concept of deterrence can be seen easily in public statements, for example, Churchill told Parliament on Britains hydrogen bomb was, "the deterrent upon the Soviet union by putting her....on an equality or near equality of vulnerability," a soviet ...

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...rrence therefore is a game of bluff, it is about convincing the enemy that a country is irrational enough to go MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction). In the nuclear context, it only works whilst each side believes that the threat is real - the countries involved believe each other irrational enough to use it. The threat has to be a credible one but if it was ever carried out it will be disastrous. Deterrence is based on actors being rational in deterring potential aggression but find themselves in an irrational situation, effectively signing themselves to suicide if war ever broke out. Deterrence ultimately is a very dangerous game of bluff which only works whilst everyone believes in it. Theoretically it is irrational and based on emotions of revenge and so does not make much sense in the realist perspective to which it is set.

Bibliography.

Calvocoressi, P. World Politics Since 1945. 6th edition. Longman. London. 1991

Finnis, Boyle and Grised. Nuclear Deterrence, Morality and Realism. Clarendon Press. Oxford. 1989

Hedley Bull. The Anarchical Society. 2nd edition. Macmillan. London. 1995

Kegley and Wittkopf. World Politics. 5th edition. St. Martins Press. New York. 1995

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