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Judgement and its influence on decisions
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Psychologist, Daniel Kahneman describes two methods of cognitive processes at work when individuals make decisions. The two-system approach to judgment and choice is described as System 1 and System 2 thinking. System 1 is the fast, automatic, associative and emotional process of decision making. System 2 is described as a slower, serial, effortful and deliberately controlled process. The System 1 process is intuitive and governed by habit and instinct, while System 2 thinking is more methodical, requires reasoning and governed by rules. Most thoughts originate in System 1, although System 2 takes over when more reasoning is required. The ease with which mental contents come to mind is referred to as accessibility. Several factors influence the accessibility of information, both in perception and in judgment. For example, natural assessments such as size, distance, similarity or the difference between good and bad don’t require much effort to assess. This type of information is processed immediately. Some operations of accessibility require more effort and time due to experience, or lack thereof, and skill. The importance of the information and the way the information is displayed influences the …show more content…
Due to this passive view or narrow framing, people fail to understand the totality of a give situation. The rational-agent model assumes that investors make their choices in a comprehensively inclusive, broad framing manner, which factors all relevant details, including future opportunities and risk. In reality, investors have the tendency to evaluate their portfolios based on an extremely short time horizon. In addition, investor decisions about a particular investment are often considered in isolation of the total portfolio, especially if a loss occurs, as opposed to a comprehensive manner. Ultimately, short-term evaluations lead to excessive trading, increased portfolio expenses and
Processing capacity is a very broad and flexible category according to many researchers. In fact, the quote above mentioned suggests that we often fail to notice things that happen just in front of us (unexpected events that are often salient) either because we were completely absorbed by something else or because we had so many things to do at the same time that we couldn’t pay attention to it. We have all at least once failed to see a friend who was waving at us while eating in the cafeteria or walking in a crowded street. The primary question that we should ask ourselves is: how many things can we attend at the same time? The truth is that we didn’t perceive this friend because of a phenomenon called “inattentional blindness”. The problem is that the richness of our visual experience leads us to believe that our visual representation will include and preserve the same amount of detail (Levin et al 2000). In this paper we’ll see the different theories of inattentional blindness, and the classical theories demonstrating this paradigm.
His first book Attention and Effort was published in 1973, in which he focused his study on attention, which was seen as an irrelevant topic of choice to work on during Titchener’s time (Kahneman, 1973). However, Dr. Daniel Kahneman concerned himself with the concept of attention since it may be or is one of the foundations that take part in hesitation within decision making, including the different subsets attention has when it comes to our mental processes. In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1982), the book looks at judgment and the attributions of behavior through predicting the possibilitie(s) of choices. Well-Being: The Foundations of Hedonic Psychology was published in 1999, which mainly concentrates on the scientific effort to comprehend the concept of human pain and pleasure; one of Kahneman’s most well known works in social psychology. Then in 2000, he and along with colleagues published Choices, Values, and Frames, as they discussed their alternative of prospect theory and elaborates on the approaches towards the efficacy of choices people make. The fifth book, Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, was released in 2002 to try and help answer subjective questions of complex situation of the world/life through an objective perspective. Lastly, Kahneman’s most recent work was issued in 2011, Thinking, Fast and
Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 12(5): 182-186. Styles, E. A. & Co. a. The adage of the ad The Psychology of Attention. 2nd Edition.
The efficient market, as one of the pillars of neoclassical finance, asserts that financial markets are efficient on information. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that there is no trading system based on currently available information that could be expected to generate excess risk-adjusted returns consistently as this information is already reflected in current prices. However, EMH has been the most controversial subject of research in the fields of financial economics during the last 40 years. “Behavioural finance, however, is now seriously challenging this premise by arguing that people are clearly not rational” (Ross, (2002)). Behavioral finance uses facts from psychology and other human sciences in order to explain human investors’ behaviors.
The human mind is viewed as a symbol-manipulating system through which information flow. According to information processing theory, the information that comes from the environment is subject to mental processes beyond a simple stimulus-response pattern. The input from the environment passes through the cognitive systems which are then measured by the output. The information that is received may take several pathways depending on attention, encoding, recognition, and storage. The theory focuses on actual time responses to stimuli presented and how the mind transforms that information. Most important in this theory is that humans process information rather than perceive
This assignment is concerned with your understanding of the key issues relative to portfolio analysis and investment. In completing this assignment you are to limit your scope to the US stock markets only. Use the Cybrary, the Internet, and course resources to write a 2-page essay which you will use with new clients of your financial planning business which addresses the following issues and/or practices:
The dual process theory suggests that there are two different modes of processing (Evans, 2008). This theory and its components have been debated across many fields of psychology; including cognitive, social, as well as the neuroscience field. The dual process theory suggests that there are two types of thinking; one fast and intuitive, while the second is slow and deliberative (Evans & Stanovich, 2013). Both types of thinking have a variety of definitions that are used throughout research including reflexive and impulsive for the first type of thinking, with reflective and controlled being used for the second type of thinking (Lieberman, 2003; Strack & Deustch, 2004; Schneuider & Schiffrin, 1977). This theory has been met with some criticism, with researchers arguing that a dual system
Asset allocation decisions made by an investor are considered more important than other decisions such as market timing or security selection. In the research provided by Hensel (1991), performance attribution is one of the main components when choosing the right assets in a portfolio. The impact of any investment decision can be measured by comparing its outcome with the outcome of some alternative decision. Furthermore, according to Hensel (1991), every investor has to incorporate the minimum-risk portfolio, which is a combination of securities or asset classes that reduces the uncertainty of future portfolio returns to a minimum.
A review and hypothesis about the cognitive mechanism of insight. Psychological Science (China), 27(6), 1435-1437. Retrieved from http://ezproxy.fiu.edu/login?url=http://search.proquest.com/docview/620670598? accountid = 10901
A crucial reason in favour of mental accounting and overconfidence is decision efficiency. Real-life investing scenario changes every moment Time-consuming and systematic thinking process seldom is allowed during the intense decision-making (Stewart Jr et al., 1999, Busenitz and Barney, 1997). Additionally, the ‘small world’ used by the economic theory, which only applied to strict condition, is not necessarily applicable in the practical investment decision. As the assumption in those analysis approach may not conform with real life well and for most of times, cognitive heuristics is more suitable for the uncertainty(Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier, 2011). However, there is also a few argument against them, for it may hinder people from examining their investment choice thoroughly. Research shows that they did not perceive themselves as risk taker, but in fact, they are more likely to take relatively low return alternatives as ‘opportunities’, indicating that they are risk-taking to a great extent(Palich and Ray Bagby, 1995). As a result of the illusion created by such factors, decision makers tend to be narrow-minded in composing strategies and unable to bring enough information into thought(Schwenk, 1988). It was demonstrated by several researches that decisions made by means of biases and heuristics impose
There is a sense of complexity today that has led many to believe the individual investor has little chance of competing with professional brokers and investment firms. However, Malkiel states this is a major misconception as he explains in his book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”. What does a random walk mean? The random walk means in terms of the stock market that, “short term changes in stock prices cannot be predicted”. So how does a rational investor determine which stocks to purchase to maximize returns? Chapter 1 begins by defining and determining the difference in investing and speculating. Investing defined by Malkiel is the method of “purchasing assets to gain profit in the form of reasonably predictable income or appreciation over the long term”. Speculating in a sense is predicting, but without sufficient data to support any kind of conclusion. What is investing? Investing in its simplest form is the expectation to receive greater value in the future than you have today by saving income rather than spending. For example a savings account will earn a particular interest rate as will a corporate bond. Investment returns therefore depend on the allocation of funds and future events. Traditionally there have been two approaches used by the investment community to determine asset valuation: “the firm-foundation theory” and the “castle in the air theory”. The firm foundation theory argues that each investment instrument has something called intrinsic value, which can be determined analyzing securities present conditions and future growth. The basis of this theory is to buy securities when they are temporarily undervalued and sell them when they are temporarily overvalued in comparison to there intrinsic value One of the main variables used in this theory is dividend income. A stocks intrinsic value is said to be “equal to the present value of all its future dividends”. This is done using a method called discounting. Another variable to consider is the growth rate of the dividends. The greater the growth rate the more valuable the stock. However it is difficult to determine how long growth rates will last. Other factors are risk and interest rates, which will be discussed later. Warren Buffet, the great investor of our time, used this technique in making his fortune.
Life is full of decisions. Some decisions are trivial. Should I choose paper or plastic at the grocery store? Which of the 31 flavors of ice cream should I pick? Other decisions are vital. Should I get married to her or should I take this new job? Your decisions may affect many people or only yourself. In this paper I will present a decision-making model. I will describe a decision that I made at work using this model and how critical thinking impacted that decision.
1. In accomplishing needs analysis in response to given deficiency, what type of information you would include? Describe the process that you would use in developing necessary information?
Our understanding and the concept of investment in behavioural finance combines economics and psychology to analyse how and why investors make final decision. As an investor one’s decision to invest is fully influence by different type of attitudes of behavioural and psychological ( Ricciardi & Simon, 2000). Yet, in order to maximize their financial goal, investors must have a good investment planning. Furthermore , to gain a good investment planning , there must be a good decision making among investors. They have to choose the right investment plan I order to manage the resources for different type of investments not only to gain profit wise but also to avoid the risk that occur from investment.
This paper will define and discuss five financial theories and how they impact business decisions made by financial managers. The theories will be the Modern Portfolio Theory, Tobin Separation Theorem, Equilibrium Theory, Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.