The Bayesian Theory of Confirmation, Idealizations and Approximations in Science
ABSTRACT: My focus in this paper is on how the basic Bayesian model can be amended to reflect the role of idealizations and approximations in the confirmation or disconfirmation of any hypothesis. I suggest the following as a plausible way of incorporating idealizations and approximations into the Bayesian condition for incremental confirmation: Theory T is confirmed by observation P relative to background knowledge
where I is the conjunction of idealizations and approximations used in deriving the prediction PT from T, PD expresses the discrepancy between the prediction PT and the actual observation P, and stands for logical entailment. This formulation has the virtue of explicitly taking into account the essential use made of idealizations and approximations as well as the fact that theoretically based predictions that utilize such assumptions will not, in general, exactly fit the data. A non-probabilistic analogue of the confirmation condition above that I offer avoids the 'old evidence problem, which has been a headache for classical Bayesianism.
Idealizations and approximations like point-masses, perfectly elastic springs, parallel conductors crossing at infinity, assumptions of linearity, of "negligible" masses, of perfectly spherical shapes, are commonplace in science. Use of such simplifying assumptions as catalysts in the process of deriving testable predictions from theories complicates our picture of confirmation and disconfirmation. Underlying the difficulties is the fact that idealizing and approximating assumptions are already known to be false statements, and yet they are often indispensable when testing theories for truth. This aspect of theory testing has been long neglected or misunderstood by philosophers. In standard hypothetico-deductive, bootstrapping and Bayesian accounts of confirmation, idealizations and approximations are simply ignored. My focus in this paper is on how the basic Bayesian model can be amended to reflect the role of idealizations and approximations in the confirmation or disconfirmation of an hypothesis. I suggest the following as a plausible way of incorporating idealizations and approximations into the Bayesian condition for incremental confirmation: Theory T is confirmed by observation P relative to background knowledge
where I is the conjunction of idealizations and approximations used in deriving the prediction PT from T, PD expresses the discrepancy between the prediction PT and the actual observation P, and stands for logical entailment. This formulation has the virtue of explicitly taking into account the essential use made of idealizations and approximations as well as the fact that theoretically based predictions that utilize such assumptions will not, in general, exactly fit the data.
The following four texts apart of the Culminating Activity were all related to the Apollo 11 mission in 1969, which had first put a man on the moon. The first article was from the Times of London, and served to describe the events of the moon landing from the astronaut's point of view. The article used anecdotal evidence to describe Aldrin and Armstrong's experience in order to inform the audience of what had occurred, as well as the reactions in several different countries.. The speaker is a from a reputable news source, The Times, and is informing the European audience - as this event was apart of America’s space program, NASA - of the landing as a great success. Although
Fox, Josh. "10 Reasons the Moon Landings Could Be a Hoax." Listverse. N.p., 28 Dec. 2012. Web. 20 Feb. 2014.
Plait, Phil. "Fox TV and the Apollo Moon Hoax." Bad Astronomy. 3 Dec. 2001. 6 Dec. 2001 <http://www.badastronomy.com/>.
“The data suggest that removing the Pell Grant from less-prepared students will not compel many of them to forgo college. Instead, they will enroll, and without grant aid, they will take on debt, even more than they already had to” (Goldrick, 3). This will make a serious impact on the economy because students who didn’t perform academically well in high school will have a tougher time paying of the mass debt at the while they attend
This newspaper article discusses why schools have been raising their tuition rates and how this has been affecting their incoming students percentage. It does also touch on the fact that many “out-of-stater...
Reliabilism, an epistemological theory created to combat skepticism, claims that a person knows that p if and only if (1) p is true, (2) this person believes that p is true, and that (3) this person has come to the conclusion p via a reliable belief-forming process. A “reliable belief-forming process” could simply be a perceptive act, since reliabilism entails externalism. Externalism claims that you can have knowledge despite not knowing how you came about it (knowing the evidence), exactly. For example, imagine a boy sitting on the beach. He sees a woman walking past him no more than twenty feet away and forms the belief that there is a woman walking past him. Now, he many not exactly understand how he reached that belief, especially when it comes to cognitive processes involved, but nevertheless the fact that his perceptual processes worked reliably justifies his belief. Reliabilism’s analysis is also consistent with fallibilism, which claims that people can be incorrect in their beliefs and still be justified in their beliefs. Once again, consider the boy on the beach. His perceptual processes have consistently served him correctly; for these processes to fail and deceive him would be extremely unlikely, rendering his belief justified even if he were somehow wrong in his belief.
In all colleges in the United States, students are required to pay for their classes’ tuition either by themselves, their parents, guardians or a scholarship that they may have. The average tuition fee for an individu...
With student debt at an all-time high, parents want loans to be a last resort when in need of money for their child’s college tuition. “Money is a major concern for many high school students (and their parents) who are weighing college options” (Austin). Debt is a serious matter and is a hard thing to pay back. Another controversy with college tuition is not every person gets to have the chance to attend college. With colleges having a monthly payment plan, there could be a possibility that more students would have the ability to experience college and more would graduate with less debt. Rather than the necessity of having the whole college tuition for that school year, students would b...
Increasing college costs has proven to be a major issue for those who pursue higher learning. With institutions raising tuition and fees, students are forced to make life-altering sacrifices to repay soaring student loans. We have come to a pivotal place in history, where individuals have no choice but to minimize or delay important life decision’s such as moving home with their parents to save money, becoming home owners, retirement saving and forfeiting higher education. The impact of increasing college costs has become so severe that it is at the forefront of politicians, political agenda, inducing conversation and policies like the revised income-driven repayment program. The program proposed to help combat the effects of massive student loans.
The Health Belief Model tries to explain and predict one’s health behaviors. I feel that although doctors take precautionary actions and provide helpful preventative information that not everyone takes the information and uses it wisely. Although there are actions we can take to prevent illness or health conditions, not everyone applies these preventative actions to their daily lives. The Health Belief Model is also still relevant today because people are still avoiding treatment and/or are also not utilizing new technology and the availability of these tests to detect a disease early on in their
Confirmation bias is the act of assuming or favoring information based on personal beliefs or theories. As we live in a surprising world where a lot of unbelievable and shocking things happen, we are more than likely, as human beings motivated by personal beliefs and wishful thinking, to jump into conclusion based on those ideas and concepts.
A college education has become the expectation for most youth in the United States. Children need a college education to succeed in the global economy. Unfortunately for the majority of Americans the price of an education has become the equivalent to a small house. The steep tuition of a college education has made it an intimidating financial hurdle for middle class families. In 1986-1987 school year the average tuition at a private university was $20,566 (adjusted to 2011 dollars) while in 2011 the average cost was $28,500 for an increase of 38.6%. Similarly in public universities there has been an increase in tuition: in the 1986-1987 school year the average tuition at a public university was $8,454 (adjusted to 2011 dollars) while in 2011 the average cost was actually $20,770 for an increase of 145.7%. Most families who are able to save for college try to do so, therefore their children are not left with large amounts of debt due to loans. Nevertheless, families are only able to save on average around $10,000, which is not enough to pay for a full educ...
Assigning a subjective prior probability to the ultimate hypothesis is unreliable. This is because prior probabilities are often determined from past information or past events that may have slightly different parameters e.g. the probability of being guilty of murder given a history of domestic abuse and the probability of being guilty of murder given no history of domestic abuse have different parameters and thus cannot be seen as the same event. Prior probabilities could also be purely determined by an expert’s subjective assessment, which are subjected to flaws.
With the rapid growth of college tuition, it has become an important issue in higher education. College Tuition is simply defined as the charge or fee for instruction, at a private school or a college or a university. Most people agree today that college tuition is too high or that it needs to be completely dismissed. There are some however, that may disagree with the claim about college tuition and state that college tuition is necessary for college growth, and it’s primary purpose is to pay for college expenses to support the institution financially. Research shows that college tuition is too high and that debt has become a standard in America after attending post-secondary school.
...e overcame that. As expressed in the journal, Rihanna had many thoughts on her mind and was going through so much stress but she still had the power to gain her strength and confidence to overcome her obstacles. Critics believe that Rihanna is trying to discover herself and figure out who she really is as a person. I believe Rihanna is just putting on a act and is fooling everybody so she can make that money.