The Party of the President loses seats in the midterms. Maybe they won too many seats than normal as a result of a popular presidential candidate, who is no longer popular. Perhaps something like an attack occurred which usually helps the president and the associated party. Being the loyal opposition helps after eight long years of being out of the White House. These are some of the factors that affect the president’s party in the midterm election. They will be thoroughly investigated below to see what the literature says about these hypotheses. There are two sets of theories that explains why the President’s party loses seats in the midterm election. Those two theories are 1. The coattails / surge-and-decline and 2. The economic / popularity …show more content…
theory. The coattails model seems more accurate that the economic model, although incorporating both models seems to bring a better result. Each model has its own functionality. The coattail model enables us to see the decline of the vote from the presidential election vote to the midterm votes. Conversely, the economic / popularity model leads us to figure out any deviations from the normal votes to that specific midterm. These two models together explain more than 80% of the midterm losses. The margin of error in terms of estimating potential seat loss is between four and five seats. The prior presidential vote is the best estimate of the outcome of a midterm election. The larger the presidential victory is the larger the defeat will be in the president’s party in the subsequent midterm election. For every additional percentage point a president defeats the challenger, the president’s party can expect to lose around three seats in the subsequent midterm election. This is because of two reasons. 1. A greater pull by the president in the presidential election season, the greater the fall back to the normal vote. This is not necessarily a deviation from the normal vote through factors of the time. The loss is because of the midterm seat in question. 2. Distribution of the vote loss in a midterm election. This is to say a narrow victory by a president is probably going to lead an evenly distributed loss across districts in the midterm election. On the other hand, a midterm defeat after a sizable presidential victory will come from districts where the president did surprisingly well. The second type of loss is more severe. A loss of votes will lead to a greater loss of seats, if a president had a large margin of victory. A President’s popularity is also a factor. Whenever, the incumbent president is not popular, the President’s party is likely to lose more seats in the midterm election. For every percentage point favorable to the president, the president’s party will retain one seat in the midterms. A percentage point increase favorable to the economic conditions in the year of the midterms will help the president’s popularity and save about two seats for the president’s party. The direct effect of economic conditions is not as effective as the other methods. (Campbell, J., 1985). During midterm election, the president can campaign for the political party. There is a difference between a rally and a fundraiser. A presidential approval rating in a particular jurisdiction determines the likelihood of a rally by the president on the behalf of a midterm election candidate. Fundraisers and virtual events are not detected by the president’s approval rating unlike rallies. The purpose of a fundraiser is to collect funds not politics. Presidents are willing to help their party more enthusiastically when they are popular and believe they are an asset to their party and they will be repaid in the ballot box in that election. Fundraisers are not time consuming. There is no immediate political need as far as fundraisers are concerned. Fundraisers are either about the past or the future. Presidential travel are strategic in their very nature. (Lang, M. , Lang, . , Rottinghaus, B. , & Peters, G., 2011). The assertion that presidential campaigning in a midterm election, at least as far as the United States Senate is concerned, is either not impactful or it has a negative impact has its own fatal flaws.
This assertion does not give an answer as to why the president campaigns so often, if the assertion that their campaigning is not going affect the outcome of s midterm election at best or will affect it negatively at worst case scenario. Furthermore, it does not even have a standard where one can objectively observe its merits. Presidents are strategic and as such, they will only campaign only in areas where they believe their appearance will positively help their chosen candidates in that race. Whenever the United States Congress is not cooperating with presidents as far as the latter’s legislative agenda, Presidents are more likely to campaign. Since presidential campaigning is strategic in nature, it will help the preferred candidate win. In a close election, an appearance by the president may mean the margin of victory. Presidential visits also mobilize voters. It is not as effective in converting voters’ allegiance to a party though. Midterms are generally bad timing for the president's party. Given that though, Presidential appearances help the party’s candidate. This shows the power of the presidency of the United States. The public does not see the president’s role in midterm election for what it is. If that were the case, the relation between the executive branch and the legislative branch would have been different. A president supported by the public is more likely to get more cooperation from the United States Congress. A president’s ability to win over the United States Congress wanes over time, the president’s ability to gain good public policy, however, gains steam over time. Evaluating the presidency more realistically may lead to a better policy agenda. (Cohen, J. , Krassa, M. , & Hamman, J.,
1991). Americans tend to believe the party that is out of power has the answer to the problems facing the country during the second midterm of a two-term President of the United States. This is what is called party competence evaluations. The President’s party will lose more seats in the second midterm than in the first midterm of a president’s eight years term. Midterm Congressional elections are observed as a check to the president’s power. If a President Elect’s coattails help the party to also control the United States Congress, the new President has two years until the next election to implement changes with a cooperation with a favorable Congress. Congress will be less supportive after the first midterm election. The second midterm election occurs during year six of a two term president of the United States - which is a maximum of eight years total, which assumes the president did not originally gain the office of the presidency of the United States as a result of a resignation or death of a predecessor during year three and beyond or year seven and beyond of the predecessor's mandate. Voters are more generous to the president’s party during the first midterm of a presidency. Voters will be tired of the party in the White House after six years. This tendency on the part of the American electorate to be tired of one party after two terms in the White House make the two parties - Democrats and Republicans more competitive. (Abramowitz, A. , Cover, A. , & Norpoth, H., 1986). Midterms are generally bad for the President’s party. In 1998, the incumbent president was Democrat William ( Bill ) Jefferson Clinton. He was in his sixth year of the presidency of the United States during the 1998 midterm election. His party has already lost the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate during the first midterm election of his presidency in 1994. In 1998, the Democratic Party was projected to lose more seats in the United States Congress. That said, the Republicans led by House Speaker Newt Gingrich actually lost seats in that chamber. The Speaker of the House of Representatives resigned the speakership and his Congressional seat in Georgia’s sixth Congressional district as a result of the unexpected loss of his party. He also had ethical difficulties that further complicated his chances of staying in power as a second in line to the presidency of the United States after then Vice President Al Gore, if President Clinton were to resign or otherwise become unable to serve his mandate. The Republicans’ insistence on impeaching President Clinton for what is known as the Monica Lewinsky scandal did not help the Republican party in the midterm election although history suggested they would have a very good election season. The 2002 midterm election is another example of an instance where the midterm election did not help the opposing party. This time, though the role is reversed. The Republican Party had full control of the White House and the House of Representatives, although they lost a net of one seat in the House from the 2000 elections versus the 2002 midterm election. In the Senate, there was a tie in the 2000 election with Democrat Al Gore breaking a tie in the first 17 days of the session and Republican Dick Cheney had that role once becoming the Vice President in January 20th, 2001 and until former Republican Jim Giffords switched allegiance from the GOP to independent party and caucusing with the Democrats, which gave the Democrats the majority until the 2002 midterm election at which time the party lost its power in the Senate. The 9/11 terrorist attack and the subsequent rally around the flag effect helped the GOP be successful in this midterm election. Not every loss is the same as some losses are more severe than others. (Renda, L., 2003).
The first activity that was presented by Mayhew is due to the tremendous advertising that the members undertake. Through advertising, a congressman is able to build a favorable reputation for himself which will then attract voters. Although the incumbent’s image can have “little or no issue content,” it is still important to gain credibility from the voters so reelection of the specific incumbent can be achieved. Different ways that congressman advertise are through frequent visits to their district, mailings or letters sent to homes, and “nonpolitical speeches to home audiences.” With
who had been seen by many Tories as a future leader of the party lost
...ident. The election also peacefully transferred from the federalist party to the democratic republican party, even though the Federalists wanted a stronger federal government to restrain popular majorities, while the Democratic-Republicans wanted to reduce national government and a stronger state government so that the people could rule more directly with popular sovereignty. The events leading to the election of 1800 and events after the election also helped shape the friendship of John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, due to their political differences. The elections broke their friendship, but their retirement and Dr. Rush helped bring them back.
The Article 'The Permanent Campaign'; takes a look at the way the American political system has evolved over the years. When George Washington was president he did not campaign any before he was put in office. When he was in office he only made a few public appearances and when he did he didn't speak a word. During Washington's era political campaigning was considered undignified.
I noticed that when one political party covers almost the entirely of the map, their party will continue winning the election for several years. Like how the election of 1932, the democratic party had about 88% of the electors votes and about 60% of the popular votes. The democratic party continued to win the next four elections.
Presidential Influence in Congress." American Journal of Political Science 29.2 (1985): 183-96. JSTOR. Web. 19 May 2014.
Political scientists have continually searched for methods that explain presidential power and success derived from using that power effectively. Five different approaches have been argued including the legal approach, presidential roles approach, Neustadtian approach, institutional approach, and presidential decision-making approach. The legal approach says that all power is derived from a legal authority (U.S. Constitution). The presidential roles approach contends that a president’s success is derived from balancing their role as head of state and head of government. The Neustadtian approach contends that “presidential power is the power to persuade“ (Neustadt, p. 11). The institutional approach contends that political climate and institutional relations are what determines presidential power. The last approach, decision-making, provides a more psychological outlook that delves into background, management styles, and psychological dispositions to determine where a president’s idea of power comes from. From all of these, it is essential to study one at a time in order to analyze the major components of each approach for major strengths and weaknesses.
Richard E. Neustadt, the author of Presidential Power, addresses the politics of leadership and how the citizens of the United States rate the performance of the president's term. We measure his leadership by saying that he is either "weak or "strong" and Neustadt argues that we have the right to do so, because his office has become the focal point of politics and policy in our political system. Neustadt brings to light three main points: how we measure the president, his strategy of presidential influence, and how to study them both. Today we deal with the President himself and his influence on government action. The president now includes about 2000 men and women, the president is only one of them, but his performance can not be measured without focusing on himself.
Powerful. Representative. Influential. These are some of the various words that are utilized to describe how political parties have been and continue to be a dominating force in American politics. Political parties have established organization throughout society by creating a two party system, the Democrats and the Republicans, within institutions as well as the general public. Over the years, political parties have been an essential aspect of American politics and have given American citizens an opportunity to express their opinions. Political parties provide all eligible citizens the opportunity to participate in politics by selecting a party that best defines and implements their views. In addition, political parties play an important role in educating American citizens and encouraging them to vote. Political parties also allow America to sustain a democratic form of government, in which the people have a voice that matters. The formation of political parties has contributed to America becoming a democracy and has helped to ensure that America does not develop into a dictatorship. Therefore, political parties are beneficial for American politics and have a positive impact on society by uniting and organizing Americans with similar political viewpoints, mobilizing voters, and striving to maintain a democracy to protect America from a dictatorship.
Democracy began to rise during the mid 1820’s. A chart from History Statistics of the United States revealed that for the election of 1816, in each state the electoral college members were appointed by the state legislatures. For the election of 1824, more states began to use the people as a method of electing the electoral college members (Doc 1). In that election, Andrew Jackson won the popular vote, however, the self interested electoral college scattered the votes among the four presidential candidates: Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay, and William Crawford. Thereby, the election was sent to the House of Representatives. Crawford suffered a stroke, and Clay, finishing last in the electoral college dropped out. But, Clay used his influential position as Speaker of the House to turn the election in his favor. And, he personally did not want the
The American Presidency is undoubtedly one of the most widely recognized popular icons throughout the world. Although to most foreigners or those who have never resided in the United States or know little of its history, the executive branch of government may seem to be as dull and unyielding as the rest of the American politics, for those few rare individuals who have taken the time to examine and closely scrutinize this office of the American political system and its recent history, quite the opposite will be said. Unlike Congressional or local elections where typically a number of individuals of the same ideological background must be elected in order for a particular issue to be addressed by the government, when it comes to the presidency, one person, although checked by various other divisions of the same government, has the power and responsibility to literally, as history has proven, change the world. The American people, "like all people everywhere, want to have our (political) cake and eat it too. We want a lot of leadership, but we are notoriously lousy followers" (Genovese). In other words the expectations the public has of the executive office are ever-changing since we demand that our leaders keep up with the evolving world around us and them. Throughout the past seventy eventful years alone, the American people's views, perceptions and demands of the Executive Office of American government have evolved simultaneously with the political and social events of that same time period.
Understanding and evaluating presidents’ performance often poses challenges for political experts. The nation votes one president at the time and each presidency faces different tests. The environments surrounding a presidency have a tremendous impact on the success and failure of that presidency. In addition, the president exercises his power through a check and balance system embody in the Constitution. As stated in (Collier 1959), the Constitution created a government of “separated institutions sharing power.” As a result, a president works with others institutions of the government to shape the nation’s agenda. Thus, determining a presidential performance becomes difficult, especially when it comes to comparing the performance among presidencies.
The United States presidential election of 2012 was the 57th presidential election. The election was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. The Democratic political leader was the incumbent President Barack Obama, and his candidate was vice President Joe Biden. Throughout this election the proportion of eligible voters who cast ballots shows that the rate was lower than in the past two presidential elections. Voter turnout decreased from 62.3 percent of eligible citizens voting in 2008 to an estimated 57.5 in 2012. The above calculation was also below the 60.4 percent in 2004 election, however above the 54.2 percent turnout in the 2000 election. Despite a rise of over eight million voters within the fitted population, turnout dropped from 131 million voters in 2008 to an estimated 126 million voters in 2012. When all ballots were computed, some 93 million eligible voters didn’t vote. There must be some contributing factors to see why there's a decline in voters’ turnout.
Congressmen are always doing things for their reelection. There are three main things that Congressmen do in order to ensure they are reelected. They advertise themselves by getting their name out to make it so they are seen in a positive light. They want to make their intelligence, knowledge, and personality be known in positive ways. Most Congressmen get their name out to their constituents by sending them letters, writing in the local newspaper, going on radio and TV shows, and being involved in the community and in the constituents’ lives.
In the year 1789, the first presidential election took place under the new constitution. The changes between then and now are too many to count. There have been amendments to the constitution, technology has enhanced, communication is better, strategies have grown and the world is a different place. In every election, each president had his or her own strengths and weaknesses of their time. In the presidential election of 2012 between Obama and Romney, many economic and personal characteristics held importance on Election Day. In this research paper, I will look at the issues that voters had and discuss how each candidate addressed them. I will also share other important information that contributed to the outcome of the election.