Three Possible Taiwan Futures

Taiwan’s past and present are inextricably linked to that of the People’s Republic of China. Therefore, one cannot begin to postulate and critically comment upon a possible “Taiwan future” without first assessing the prevailing political climate of her mainland cousin: the People’s Republic of China. Given the current rhetoric espoused by both Taipei and Beijing, one may argue that three possible “Taiwan futures” emerge as most likely to occur. These scenarios, from most to least probable, are: 1) peaceful reunification with the PRC; one country, two systems; 2) a referendum declaring Taiwan a sovereign state, independent of the PRC; and 3) reunification achieved via a PRC initiated military action.
It is not insignificant that the Republic of China, Taiwan, and the People’s Republic of China, Communist Mainland China, have consistently and unequivocally asserted a sacrosanct principle regarding the state of Sino-Taiwanese relations: that there is only “one China.” Furthermore, in February 1972, the United States and the People’s Republic of China issued a joint communiqué stating, “...the United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China” (www.chinanews.org). Therefore, one may argue that the first and most likely scenario for a possible “Taiwan future” is “peaceful reunification; one country, two systems.”
The foundation for “peaceful reunification; one country, two systems” was laid in January 1979 when the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China called for an end to military hostilities between the PRC and Taiwan. The Standing Committee asserted that in its quest for national reunification, the PRC “will respect the status quo on Taiwan and the views of people of all walks of life there and adopt reasonable policies and measures.” In September 1981, the Chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, Ye Jianying, reiterated this policy. Jianying avowed, “...after the country is reunified, Taiwan can enjoy a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region” (www.chinanews.org). Furthermore, in January 1982, China’s paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, remarked that in the event of national reunification the PRC would continue with its socialist system while Taiwan could maintain capitalism.
In August of 1993, the S...

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...of Taiwan in the event of a PRC invasion. One may argue that the People’s Republic of China is not yet ready to enter into a direct confrontation with the US. The second obstacle that precludes a PRC invasion of Taiwan is the absence of a littoral fleet capable of making a sustained assault on Taiwan. With the Taiwanese army firmly entrenched in the Pescadores and on the islands of Quemoy and Matsu, an amphibious assault on Taiwan would be akin to swallowing a “poison shrimp.” The third, and perhaps most important, obstacle that precludes a PRC invasion of Taiwan is stigma attached to the employment of nuclear weapons. It is highly unlikely that the PRC would be willing to use nuclear weapons against other Chinese.
It is possible to envision three distinct “Taiwan futures”: 1) peaceful reunification with the PRC; one country, two systems; 2) a referendum declaring Taiwan a sovereign state, independent of the PRC; and 3) reunification achieved via a PRC initiated military action. However, until the political winds in Beijing change, it is unlikely that Taiwan’s current ambiguous status on the world stage will change. For the time being, Taiwan’s future remains cloudy and uncertain.