The Comparison Of Crime: What Does Poverty Causes Crime?

This essay examines the phenomenon of crime by looking at the effects of income on crime through a proposed observational research design. To be precise, I am arguing that poverty causes crime. In the following, I will discuss my causal theory, before proposing an observational research design with a multiple linear regression model and addressing reverse causality, confounding variables, internal and external validity, and the overall advantages and disadvantages of my research design. Theory

Does income level affect crime? This is an important topic to research because it helps us understand what causes crime to be committed, which in turn, has important policy implications. For instance, crime can be reduced if policy actions directly

As my observed data is aggregated on a national level, my data is aggregate data rather than individual survey data. My independent variable can be operationalized into the poverty rate, “the ratio of the number of people whose income falls below the poverty line” (OECD, 2017). My dependent variable can be operationalized into the violent crime rate, the rate of violent crimes such as murder, assault, and theft per 1,000 people. Thus, my hypothesis is: countries with a greater poverty rate are more likely to have higher violent crime rates than countries with a lower poverty rate.

I am proposing to examine a period of ten years and all countries. By doing so, I will have a variation of different poverty rates and violent crime rates (whereas if I examined only countries in one particular region, the rates in poverty and violent crime might be very similar) as well as more data, which can help better determine if a correlation exists and how strong it is.

Multiple Linear Regression

Crime can lead to arrest and imprisonment, which affects employment opportunities and thus, income, potentially making poverty more likely. Unfortunately, my research design cannot eliminate the possibility of reverse causality because I cannot control for reverse causality in my multiple linear regression model since there is no clear temporal sequence between income and crime, and no way to determine the temporal sequence.

However, my causal theory has greater plausibility. Although having a criminal record may impact employment and income, prisons are meant to rehabilitate and often provide inmates with skills training in order to better prepare them for finding work once they are out of prison. Also, programs exist that help those formerly convicted find a job and thus, better income. On the other hand, those in poverty find it difficult to get out of poverty. For instance, they often cannot afford additional schooling or to take time off work in order to attend programs that provide skills training or help find another job, which makes resorting to crime more likely. Thus, since those in poverty often do not have access to the same resources as those in prison or the time to access possible resources, it is more plausible that low-income people turn to