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Probability and statistics devore
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Is the birthday paradox true or not?
If you survey a random group of 23 people, there is a 50% chance that two of them people will have the same birthday? The objective of this project is to prove whether or not the birthday paradox is true by looking at random groups of 23 or more people. So to understand how the birthday paradox works we have to go into detail that will include explaining:
Probability Theory
Converse Probability
Birthday Paradox
First we are going to talk about probability theory, which has to do with mathematics and analysis of random phenomena. You are probably used to putting the number of outcomes over the total amount of the object or total amount what you have. An example is, if you have a normal dice and you want the probability of rolling an odd number, you would take the total amount of odd numbers (3) and put that over the total (6) amount of numbers on the dice like so 3/6 which you can also reduce it to ½ because 3 is half of 6. This theory has been around since the sixteenth century and started off as the outcome you would get in a game, which was created by Pierre de Fermat, Blaise Pascal and Gerolamo Cardano. Later on in the seventeenth century Christiaan Huygens published a book on the subject.
Converse probability is with the example on rolling an odd number to all the numbers is 3/6 – ½ then you switch it to look like 6/3 – 2/1. That is how simple converse probability is, so to talk about the birthday paradox. The birthday paradox has to do with probability and the understanding of how to use probability in real life situations. Interesting probability problems are about finding out how to put two and two together. When doing this you can also use a graphing calculator. The graphing ca...
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...ability and Statistics. (2009, August 19). In Cerebro.xu.edu. Retrieved March 18, 2014, from http://cerebro.xu.edu/math/Sources/Laplace/
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Simon, S. (2005, March 19). Math Guy: The Birthday Problem. In http://www.npr.org. Retrieved March 20, 2014, from http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4542341
The Birthday Paradox (2013, November 18). In http://scientopia.org. Retrieved March 20, 2014, from http://scientopia.org/blogs/goodmath/2013/11/18/the-birthday-paradox/
Pierre Simon Laplace on Probability and Statistics . (n.d.). In cerebro.xu.edu. Retrieved March 24, 2014, from http://cerebro.xu.edu/math/Sources/Laplace/
Bayes Theorem, allows you to combine two or more probabilities into a single number. To come up with a combined probability, multiply the initial probability by a single number which represents the “likelihood ratio”. That ratio will either inflate or deflate the original probability estimate. The Bayes Theorem allows you to update your predictions over time as new and ideally better information comes to
“The Lottery” is a short story about an event that takes place every year in a small village of New England. When the author speaks of “the lottery” he is referencing the lottery of death; this is when the stoning of a village member must give up his or her life. The villagers gather at a designated area and perform a customary ritual which has been practiced for many years. The Lottery is a short story about a tradition that the villagers are fully loyal to and represents a behavior or idea that has been passed down from generation to generation, accepting and following a rule no matter how cruel or illogical it is. Friends and family become insignificant the moment it is time to stone the unlucky victim.
Bennett, J., Briggs, W., & Triola, M. (2014). Statistical reasoning: For everyday life (14th ed.). Boston: Pearson Education, Inc.
Approximately four babies are born every second of the day in the world, that means that means that there are roughly 345,600 people that have the exact same birthday, including the same birth year. That makes you wonder, what the chances are that a pair of people in a room have the same birthday. With the application of the birthday paradox, also known as the birthday problem, these “chances” can be approximated.
Holtzman, Jack M. "A note on Schrodinger's cat and the unexpected hanging paradox." The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science v39. 1988. 397-401.
Throughout the day we are constantly checking the time, preparing for the upcoming months, and keeping track of the year. Clocks tell us the time we use as a measurement. It’s how we keep track of those important months and events, such as holidays and birthdays. Although there are many investigations and research being done on the nature of time, many unresolved issues remain.
Chance. 50/50. 1:2. Odds. These terms are familiar in gambling. Bet it all give it a shot. Is it worth the consequences? Are the problems worth the rewards? Imagine a gamble between life and death, war and peace. Would it be worth the destruction to have your way? What would you do to keep a competitor out of the game? Going neck and neck to find a way around combat. Would the world be the same? What would happen if you lost? When tension between World War II grows, a gamble for nuclear arms rises, becoming the cold war.
When a wife surprises her husband on his birthday, an ironic turn of events occurs. Katherine Brush’s “The Birthday Party” is a short story about relationships, told from the perspective of a nearby observer. Brush uses the words and actions of the married couple to assert that a relationship based on selfishness is weak.
Introduction to the basic concepts of probability and statistics with discussion of applications to computer science.
Adler’s birth order plays a significant part in how we perceive our lives. Birth order is defined as “is not a deterministic concept but does increase an individual’s probability of having certain set of experiences” (Corey, 2013, p. 108). When we are born there is an automatic label that is placed upon us. We are the oldest or youngest or somewhere in between. Society fosters the idea of birth order and treats us accordingly.
All of these probability laws were utilized by Xenakis in Metastasis. I will now show the correlation of the mathematical version and the musically notated version of the glissadi in Metastasis. Figure 8 is the first page of the score to Metstasis, and Figure 9 is a graphic score of bars 309-314 of Metastasis.
To prove the two hypothesis the researchers present the participants with a series of opportunities to cheat, but then surprise them with an additional series of cheating opportunities. To increase their interest in participating the contributors obtain $.10 for each flip of a coin, but only if the side up of the coin is “heads”. The participants have the opportunity of flip the coin 7, 10 or 13 times, the flipping of the coin happens privately, and they are told not to cheat. The researches then tried to prove the hypothesis in 4
In this topic we will discuss about solving expected value x for discrete chance variable. Expected value is one of the fundamental thoughts in probability, in a sense more general than probability itself. The expected value of a real-valued chance variable offers a compute of the center of the distribution of the variable. More significantly, by taking the expected value of a variety of functions of a general random variable, we can work out a lot of interesting features of its distribution, including spread and correlation.
- The second method I will use is calculating probabilities by the use of conditional probability.
The reason we use this formula in particular is because the birthdays of 30 random people in a room are all independent events that do not rely on one another for it’s occurrence.