IQ and Success

IQ and Success

Using data from a long-term survey, The Bell Curve purports to show that IQ is a far better predictor of adult success than childhood socioeconomic status. But the authors used an extremely limited number of social factors as the basis for their calculations. By taking into consideration a greater number of social factors (to make the study resemble a more complete picture of real life), sociologists have been able to show that social factors, not IQ, are a much better predictor of future success.

In The Bell Curve, authors Herrnstein and Murray claim that a child's IQ is a far better predictor of future success than a child's initial socioeconomic status (or SES). For example, a white child raised in the bottom 5 percent of SES is eight times more likely to become poor than a child from the top 5 percent. But a white child whose IQ is in the bottom 5 percent is fifteen times more likely to become poor than a child whose IQ is in the top 5 percent. (1)

Is this true? (Well, no -- but more on this below.) It does seems obvious that intelligence is important to succeed in life, but it also seems obvious that social factors play a large, if not larger, role. For example, the crushing economic disparity between North and South Korea has nothing to do with IQ differences, and everything to do with different social and economic policies. Even on a personal level, intelligence is only one of countless factors that contribute to success. Others include: Access to education Training opportunities Personality type Physical attractiveness Athletic ability Inheritance Nepotism Prejudice Social and business connections Knowing someone who is successful Lobbying Congress Business cycle trends Fads Inventions Discoveries Wars Speculation Gambling Miserliness Insider trading Unfair market practices And, last but not least, dumb luck -- being at the right place at the right time

And these are just the adult factors -- there's a whole host of childhood factors as well, which follow below. How the rules of the game are constructed determines which of these factors becomes most important for winning and losing, and therefore which individuals have the most "merit." For example, we might think that those who play professional baseball have the most merit -- that is, they are the best players in the game.