Question: Research the current state of earthquake prediction. Have we made any progress in recent years? Are other countries making progress? How far away are seismologists from being able to accurately predict earthquakes? Go beyond what was discussed in class.
The Current State of Earthquake Prediction
For my research project I have chosen the topic of earthquake prediction and the current state and accuracy at which this is possible. Earthquake prediction is a very tricky business in the first place. Unlike predicting a volcanic eruption, predicting and earthquake does not generally come with the precursors that tell us that one is coming. Seismic activity is very random and for the most part comes without warning. There have been several attempts over the years and little to none of them have been successful in accurately predicting the event.
The first thing I would like to do is explain the current process that we use to attempt to predict these natural disasters. The act of predicting an earthquake is normally described as “as the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of a future earthquake within stated limits.” (Earthquake Prediction) Now this is also a completely different process than earthquake forecasting which is more so distinguished as the general assessment of the hazards that an earthquake presents within a given area, including the magnitude and frequency that is associated with that earthquake. We have in place, in a lot of countries, and early warning system, but this can also be distinguished from predicting earthquakes because of the fact that these systems only give about a couple of seconds of warning compared to what we would like it to be. When we speak about the prediction of ...
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... of about 2.5-3 magnitude that ended up happening on August 1 at a magnitude of 2.6. Since then the account has been discredited since no other earthquake has ever been predicted in the same area.
Overall, the area of seismology has made some significant progress in the last 50 years. Although no scientist has been able to say without a doubt when a specific event will occur, seismologists have made a great deal of progress that could lead to a future of being able to accurately predict earthquakes. We would all like to see this in the nearest future, and the reality is that it could very well be within our lifetime. Earthquakes are a very regular occurrence on Earth since the plates beneath our feet are always moving. Through my research I can say that this field will continue to develop at a rapid rate until the problem of predicting earthquakes is solved.
Problem Statement: Earthquakes are a natual part of the environment. They do,however,cause devistating effect on the environment. Since Earthquakes can not be avoided, maybe there is a way to determine when they are going to occur so precautions can be taken to get people to safety and protect as much of
Earthquakes are a natural part of the Earth’s evolution. Scientific evidence leads many geologists to believe that all of the land on Earth was at one point in time connected. Because of plate tectonic movements or earthquakes, continental drift occurred separating the one massive piece of land in to the seven major continents today. Further evidence supports this theory, starting with the Mid-Atlantic ridge, a large mass of plate tectonics, which are increasing the size of the Atlantic Ocean while shrinking the Pacific. Some scientists believe that the major plate moveme...
There are many pro’s for attempting to forecast an earthquake or volcano. Forecasting an earthquake or eruption saves lives and property, mainly by preparation, as there is no way to prevent these events with today technology.
I think being prepared and educated will save many lives if and when we get the big one in the Cascadia region. Works Cited http://www.crew.org/cascadia http://www.crew.org/sites/default/files/cascadia_subduction_scenario_2013.pdf http://www.pnsn.org/outreach/earthquakesources/crustalfaults www.iris.edu/hq/files/programs/education_and_outreach/aotm/5/2.Subduction_Rebound_Background.pdf www.crew.org/sites/default/files
Earthquakes in California are certainly not a surprise. What is a surprise is their unpredictability and randomness. Geologists say there is roughly a 50 percent chance that a magnitude 8 or more quake will hit the Los Angeles area sometime over the next 30 years. And, over the past twenty years, the Los Angeles area has witnessed several earthquakes, and in particular, two that were quite devastating; the 1971 San Fernando earthquake, and the January 17, 1994, Northridge Earthquake. Given the certainty that earthquakes will occur, they still seem to come as a surprise, and leave many communities unprepared to deal with their aftermath.
Healy, J. H., Rubey, W. W., Griggs, D. T., & Raleigh, C. B. (1968, September). The Denver Earthquakes. Science, 161(3848), 1301-1310. Retrieved from JSTOR database.
From studying the science behind the San Francisco earthquake, scientists have made a number of important discoveries involving how earthquakes function. At 5:12 on a fateful April morning in 1906, the mammoth Pacific and North American plates sheared each other at an incredible twenty-one feet along the San Andreas fault, surpassing the annual average of two inches (“San Francisco Earthquake of 1906”) (“The Great 1906 Earthquake and Fires”). A few seconds later, the destructive earthquake occurred. The ground shifted at almost five feet per second, and the shaking could be felt all the way from southern Oregon to southern Los Angeles to central Nevada (“Quick”) (“The Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake”). In fact, the earthquake could be registered in a seismograph on Capetown, South Africa, an astounding 10,236 miles away...
Hazards pose risk to everyone. Our acceptance of the risks associated with hazards dictates where and how we live. As humans, we accept a certain amount of risk when choosing to live our daily lives. From time to time, a hazard becomes an emergent situation. Tornadoes in the Midwest, hurricanes along the Gulf Coast or earthquakes in California are all hazards that residents in those regions accept and live with. This paper will examine one hazard that caused a disaster requiring a response from emergency management personnel. Specifically, the hazard more closely examined here is an earthquake. With the recent twenty year anniversary covered by many media outlets, the January 17, 1994, Northridge, California earthquake to date is the most expensive earthquake in American history.
benchmark for the future, and integrated investigation into the effects of earthquakes in the U.S.
On the morning of Wednesday, April 18, 1906 an earthquake struck the City of San Francisco at 5:12 according to seismograph records. It was remembered as especially violent and everyone in the vicinity woke up to white dust in the air from fallen debris. As remembered by a bystander of the event, “I was awakened by a very severe shock of earthquake. The shaking was so violent that it nearly threw me out of bed... As soon as it was over I got up and went to the window, and saw the street filled with a white dust.” (Stetson, 21.) The strong shaking lasted from 45 to 60 seconds which were felt as far north as southern Oregon and past Los Angeles in the south. The water supply became shut off by the earthquake and then when fires broke out all ove...
The only records about this earthquake that remain since the 12th century are chronicles recorded a person from Damancus that states that the earthquake resulted from a small earthquake in October 10, 1189 and was followed by the large earthquake the following day on October 11, 1189. However another person recorded that there was only one earthquake that occurred between October 19-October 20 which contradicts Damancus records of the earthquake. Today historians support that the earthquake did happen and that is either occurred on October 10th or October 11th, but lean more to it occurring October 11th.
Natural Disasters can occur anywhere at anytime. Some are more predictable than others, but they all bring hardship to everyone’s life. Examples of natural disasters are Earthquakes (Haiti 2010), Tornadoes, Tsunami, Hurricanes, Wild Fires, Winter Storms, Heat waves, Mudslides and Floods. Regardless of what kind of disaster occurs, bottom line, everyone needs to be prepared mentally and physically to deal with the aftermath. Education is the first step to prepare you to deal with any major disaster. Three of the major disasters that can potentially disrupt normal day to day operations in our lives, are Hurricanes, Tsunamis and Tornadoes.
“Earthquakes alone don't kill people; collapsed buildings do” (Sutter). In addition to possibly causing tsunamis, earthquakes are responsible for releasing enormous amounts of energy that spread through the crust as seismic waves. These seismic waves include P-waves and S-waves. While P-waves do not cause as much destruction due to their vertical movement, S-waves can cause buildings to collapse completely due to the waves’ lateral movement. In addition to collapsing buildings, earthquakes can also cause liquefaction which is when loosely packed soils temporarily behave like liquids, resulting in sliding and sinking buildings (Harris). Earthquakes have been responsible for 60% of all deaths caused by natural disasters in the past decade (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya).
Earthquakes are vibrations felt at the surface of the earth which are caused by disturbances of the energy in the earth's interior. These vibrations are known as seismic waves. (Skinner Robinson McVerry 1) There are different type sof seisimc waves such as Primary (P) waves, whcih travel the fastest, Secondary (S) waves which cause the earth to vibrate vertically, Surface (L) waves. P and S waves are "affected by changes in the density and the rigidity of the materials through which they pass." (Columbia Encyclopedia) Earthquakes vary in their intensity and duration. Often times they are strong enough to cause massive destriction. Tall buildings often suffer as a result of these natural disasters. In recent years this has become a larger and larger threat with both the number of large buildings, and their number of occupants increasing. In an effort to try to minimize the damage caused by earthquakes many some engineers focus primarily on designing and constructing earthquake resistant buildings. Earthquake engineers have gathered much of their information from analyzing past earthquakes, and learning which buildings can and can't withstand the tremors. The goals of these engineers is to design buildings that can withstand moderate earthquakes and obtain minimal damage, and that the buildings will not collapse lowering the probability of human deaths.
Earthquakes belong to the class of most disastrous natural hazards. They result in unexpected and tremendous earth movements. These movements results from dissemination of an enormous amount of intense energy in form of seismic waves which are detected by use of seismograms. The impact of earthquakes leaves behind several landmarks including: destruction of property, extensive disruption of services like sewer and water lines, loss of life, and causes instability in both economic and social components of the affected nation (Webcache 2).