Becker's Theory of Fertility

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Introduction The birth rate for the United States dropped 2 percent in 2008. This puts the US birth rate slightly the replacement level of fertility, 2.1 births per women. While some people express concern about the possibility of a decreasing population, others celebrate the large decrease in teen pregnancy. Preliminary analysis points to the slow economy as the reason behind the falling birthrate. While there seems to be a correlation between recession and lower birthrates this does not prove a causal link. To prove causation a theory must be proposed. The Value of Time (VOT) theory of fertility developed by Gary Becker states that demand for children is determined by the value of time of the wife in a family. Over time extensive amounts of evidence has been gathered supporting this theory. For example, household surveys show a negative correlation between wages earned by wives and number of children. And, if we assume that wives are the sole providers of care for children, evidence collected showing positive correlation between husband's wages and number of children also supports Becker's theory. However, contrary to Becker's theory, recent trends show that women with lower wages due to the current recession are putting off childbirth while women with higher wages are having children (Stein, 2010). Given this discrepancy between historical data confirming and current data disproving Becker's theory new studies should consider performing an in-depth evaluation of the theory. The model relies on many assumptions which can change in practicality depending on the economy, culture, and family structure in the country it is being applied to. This paper evaluated the validity of Becker's assumptions through analysis of data on ti... ... middle of paper ... ...hat women are the sole childcare providers in a family is seen as not true. However we accept this assumption because we can see women are the primary childcare providers in families. Second we check to see if an increase in the number of children in a household results in more time spent on childcare. Although weak, we do find a positive correlation between number of children in a household and time spent on childcare. The final test, to see whether or not non-students spend the same amount of time on childcare as students shows that the assumption that everybody spends the same amount of time on childcare is not true. Without this assumption the application of the theory is limited. Overall this study is a cursory look at the analysis that can be performed using data on the time spent on childcare to evaluate the VOT theory of fertility and should be expanded upon.

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