Introduction
Investor’s investment decisions are based on the valuation of stock which they conducted before making the decision. Generally investors prefer to invest in the undervalued stocks and sell their holding of stocks that they considered to be overvalued. There are many different methods of stock valuation. In addition, there are many factors which increases the risk related to the valuation of the stocks. This paper focuses on the fundamental analysis used for the valuation of the stocks. Fundamental analysis generally use the price earning method, dividend discount model, or free cash flow model for the valuation of the stocks. On contrary to it, we focus on the factors which affect the stock market and valuation of the stocks.
Basic terms
Stock
Stock is a security that represents holding in a company and signifies a requisition on the company’s assets and profits ("stock,").
Stock market
Stock market is a market in which public companies issue or exchange their shares. Stock market is also known as the equity market. Stock market is an crucial part of economy as it provide opportunity for the companies to receive capital from investor in order to give them a part of ownership of the company ("stock market,").
Market risk
Market risk refers to the risk in which the possibility of an investor to face losses as a result of some factors that influence the performance of the financial market. It can occur in the situation such as recession, fluctuating interest rates ("market risk,").
Methods of stock valuation
Price-earnings method
Dividend discount model
Free cash flow model
Price earning model
Price-earning (PE) ratio is relatively easy method of stock valuation. It is based on the expected earning instead of recent ea...
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Similar to what the article states, we have seen that risk is something that can go wrong, which we are unaware until a crisis happens. Many people tend to ignore the short tails of distribution saying they don't matter because there's a low possibility that it will occur. Think back to one such “perfect storm” that happened back in ...
Discounted Cash Flow Method takes the forecast free cash flows during forecasted horizon. Then we estimate the cost of capital (weighted average cost of capital) and estimate continuing value (value after forecast horizon). The future value is discounted to the present value. We than add back cash ($13 Million) and non-current assets and deduct total debt. With the information provided several assumptions had to be made to obtain reasonable values (life period of 30-years, Capital expenditures not to exceed $1 million dollars, depreciation to stay constant at $1.15 Million and a discounted rate of 10%). Based on our analysis, the company has a stand-alone value of $51 Million at the end of fiscal year end 1990 with a net present value of cash flows of $33 million that does not include the cash and non-current assets a cash of and non-current assets.
One of these ratios is the price earnings ratio (P/E). The Price-Earnings Ratio is an assessment ratio of a business' existing share fee likened to its earnings per share (EPS). It is computed as the market
“What makes the stock market risky?” is what you are probably asking. Well, my answer would be that the stock market is consistently going up and ...
When discussing the cost of equity capital, or the rate of return required by investors for their share expenses, there are three main models widely used for analyzation. These models are the dividend growth model, which operates on the variable of growth and future trends, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which operates on the premise that higher returns are a result of higher risk, and the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), which has a more flexible set of criteria than CAPM and takes advantage of mispriced securities
Important factors of a company’s outlook are its financial strength and weaknesses. These factors can be evaluated by reviewing the firm’s financial statements and using ratios to help measure a company’s liquidity, leverage, activity, profitability, and growth. Financial ratios are computed by using the information found in a company’s financial statements: primarily income statement and balance sheet. The calculations from the current year, previous years, and other companies in the industry are used as a basis to identify and ev...
A stock is a share of a public corporation that is traded in the open market. It is how a corporation raises its’ capital to expand their business and ability to produce goods or services. There are two types of stock: common and preferred stocks. The difference is how an investor receives a dividend. Both stocks give a person a piece of ownership of a corporation with the hope that there is a return on their investment.
There is a sense of complexity today that has led many to believe the individual investor has little chance of competing with professional brokers and investment firms. However, Malkiel states this is a major misconception as he explains in his book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”. What does a random walk mean? The random walk means in terms of the stock market that, “short term changes in stock prices cannot be predicted”. So how does a rational investor determine which stocks to purchase to maximize returns? Chapter 1 begins by defining and determining the difference in investing and speculating. Investing defined by Malkiel is the method of “purchasing assets to gain profit in the form of reasonably predictable income or appreciation over the long term”. Speculating in a sense is predicting, but without sufficient data to support any kind of conclusion. What is investing? Investing in its simplest form is the expectation to receive greater value in the future than you have today by saving income rather than spending. For example a savings account will earn a particular interest rate as will a corporate bond. Investment returns therefore depend on the allocation of funds and future events. Traditionally there have been two approaches used by the investment community to determine asset valuation: “the firm-foundation theory” and the “castle in the air theory”. The firm foundation theory argues that each investment instrument has something called intrinsic value, which can be determined analyzing securities present conditions and future growth. The basis of this theory is to buy securities when they are temporarily undervalued and sell them when they are temporarily overvalued in comparison to there intrinsic value One of the main variables used in this theory is dividend income. A stocks intrinsic value is said to be “equal to the present value of all its future dividends”. This is done using a method called discounting. Another variable to consider is the growth rate of the dividends. The greater the growth rate the more valuable the stock. However it is difficult to determine how long growth rates will last. Other factors are risk and interest rates, which will be discussed later. Warren Buffet, the great investor of our time, used this technique in making his fortune.
The purpose of this paper is to give a clear understanding of discounted cash flow valuation. The paper will explain what a discounted cash flow valuation is and its importance in financial business decisions regarding investment strategies. This paper will give a detailed discussion about discounted valuations for both present and future multiple cash flows with respect to even and uneven schedules using clear step-by-step examples. Also included will be some advantages and disadvantages in using the discounted cash flow valuation method for corporate business. Finally, the paper will give a summary of important highlights discussed in the body of the paper.
Following the trend of economy, it is important to investors to understand that strong economy creates strong stock market. To elaborate further, as stock prices are increased by current and future expectations of earnings, thus without a strong economy it would be difficult for the companies to increase and sustain their earnings (Kong 2013). The economy development is usually calculated using the gross domestic product of a countries. On the other hand, a change is the stock price can also cause a major impact to the consumers and investors directly. Hence, a loss in confidence by investors can cause a downturn in consumer spending in the long term, which will also affect the economy’s output (Aysen 2011). The graph below shows the relationship of stock market price (KLCI) and the GDP of Malaysia in 2009. Thus, it can be concluded that the economy and the stock market has a positive relationship.
Stock market prediction is the method of predicting the price of a company’s stock. It is believed that stock price is lead by random walk hypothesis. Random walk hypothesis states that stock market price matures randomly and hence can’t be predicted. Pesaran (2003) states that it is often argued that if stock markets are efficient then it should not be possible to predict stock returns. In fact, it is easily seen that stock market returns will be non-predictable only if market efficiency is combined with risk neutrality. On the other hand it is also been concluded that using variance ratio tests long horizon stock market returns can be predicted....
Today financial corporate managers are continually asking, “What will today’s investment look like for the future health of the company? Should financial decisions be put on hold until the markets become stronger? Is it more profitable to act now to better position the company’s market share?” These are all questions that could be clearly answered if the managers had a magical financial crystal ball. In lieu of the crystal ball, managers have a way of calculating the financial risks with some certainty to better predict positive financial investment outcomes through the discounted cash flow valuation (DCF). DCF valuation is a realistic approach, a tool used, to “determine the future and present value of
The stock market is an essential part of a free-market economy, such as America’s. This is because it provides companies the capital they need in exchange for giving away small parts of ownership in their company to investors. The stock market works by letting different companies sell stocks to gain capital, meaning they sell shares of their company through an exchange system in order to make more money. Stocks represent a small amount of ownership in a company. The more stocks a person owns, the more ownership they have of that company. Stocks also represent shares in a company, which are equal parts in which the company’s capital is divided, entitling a shareholder to a portion of the company’s profits. Lastly, all of the buying and selling of stocks happens at an exchange. An exchange is a system or market in which stocks can be bought and sold within or between countries. All of these aspects together create the stock market.
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