1. Abstract The objective of the study is to measure the impact of changing oil prices, and other macro economic variables like consumption, government expenditures and average exchange rates on Gross Domestic Product-GDP in the context of Pakistan’s economy. The study is secondary data based and the observation is 150 with five variables and 30 years of data. The data is taken from World Bank, Inflationdata.com, State Bank of Pakistan, Economic Survey of Pakistan, Federal Reserve Bank of America, Federal Bureau of Statistics Pakistan, Pakistan Development Review, Federal Board of Revenue, OPEC and Euro Journal. First the stationary of the variables were checked by augmented dickey fuller-unit root test and data. All variables were stationary except the average exchange rate which was non stationary. By ordinary least square method and Johansen Cointegration test both short rum and long run relationship is found. The major finding of the study are these that changing oil prices have negative relationship with GDP, while changing government expenditures and average exchange rates have positive relationship or impact on GDP. Since oil is the major import of Pakistan and every year we spend a lot of foreign exchange to purchase this basic necessity so that for government there are two policy recommendations. First that the government must either try to find out cheap and better substitutes for oil like CNG or LPG but must also try to involve foreign Multi-National Companies MNCs to do oil exploration specially in Attock region, Balochistan and Sindh to exploit these available resources to over come this deficiency. Secondly if government gives subsidy to encourage common man to raise his purchasing power, this puts additional pressu... ... middle of paper ... ...l security Washington Hillard G. Huntington(2007), “Oil shocks and real U.S. income.(Industry overview)”, | The Energy Journal. Karl Scerri and Adriana Reut (2009), “UK public finances and oil prices: tax bonanza from black gold”, Directorate for the Economies of the member States, EU. Rehana Siddiqui (2000) “Demand for energy and the revenue impact of changes in energy prices” Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad Syrous K. Kooros, Ayser Phillip Sussan, Marjorie Semetesy (2006), “The Impact of Oil Prices on Employment”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics US Department of Energy report 2006 pp 145 12. Websites www.iags.org www.worldbank.org www.sbp.gov.pk www.fianace.gov.pk www.worldbankdevelopmentreport.org www.entrepreneur.com www.e1.newcastle.edu.au/coffee www.eurojournals.com/finance
The United States has had several scares throughout its history in terms of oil, most turn out to be over exaggerations of a small event. However, these scares highlight a massive issue with the U.S. and that issue is the U.S.’s dependence on foreign oil. Why does it matter that our oil should come from over seas? In a healthy economy this probably wouldn’t be as relevant, but the U.S.’s economy is not exactly healthy at the moment. There are 4 things that I would like to address: what the problem is, how it affects us, what some solutions are, and what solutions I feel are best.
People need oil for daily life and work. Since World War II, oil had caused many serious problems in United States and throughout the world. Remarkably, economic and social problems were heightened by the emerging energy crisis. By 1974, the United States gained a third of its oil by importing from the Middle East.[ James Oakes, et al. Of The People: A History Of The United States (Oxford University Press, 2011), 881.] When the heavy war between Israel and Arabia erupted, the United States was not able to gain enough petroleum because it supported Israel. To show the dissatisfaction with the United States’ support to Israel, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries even raised oil prices. “Overnight, OPEC raised the price of its oil from $3 to $5.11/By ”[ Merrill, Karen R.. The oil crisis of 1973-1974: a brief history with documents. Boston: Bedford/St. Martin's, 2007, 22.] Not surprisingly, the United States was strongly affected by the oil shortage and the the high price of oil. Homes and businesses could not easily solve the serious problem. Drastic protests occurred in many states such as Arkansas, New York, and Florida because a huge number of drivers could not accept the high price of gasoline.[ Merrill, Karen R.. The oil crisis of 1973-1974: a brief history with documents, 1.] Transportation was decreased in order to use less oil. Faced to the great challenge, several presidents analyzed the seriousness about the oil crisis and provided effective ways of reducing the use of oil.
Over the last five to seven years, the American people have had to pay outrageous prices at the gas pumps, wildly fluctuating from under $2.00 a gallon or less to paying $4.00 a gallon or even higher for gasoline. This issue of paying unreasonable and unpredictable prices at the pump comes from the higher prices of oil. Most will say that oil prices fluctuate so because of conflicts in the Middle East or due to shortages of oil, but the simple reason of the oil prices go up so high is because of oil speculation. Oil speculation is the single greatest problem of higher gas prices further causing more economic problems and compounding living for the middle and lower class individuals and families. The economical truth is that speculation is not a necessary thing. In fact, it inhibits the economic growth of the nation and will either stifle or completely suppress any economic growth or recovery. The solution to this problem is essential to the survival of the future of the United States’ economy and industrialization.
Economic instability is perhaps the category that engulfs most states with petroleum-depending economies, including economic giants like Russia. The downfall of these producers is particularly evident given the current and increasing downfall of oil world prices of more than 50% in the last six months. The increase in domestic supply of oil in North America that rendered the United States less dependable on petroleum imports undermined the influence of exporting countries, particularly the leverage that the once powerful tycoons of the OPEC possessed over international trade. These countries can no longer engage in an embargo like in the 1973, for they are even struggling with enormous deficits to meet their citizens’ basic
One of the ways the oil boom has helped is by creating new jobs for people. Unemployment has decreased and employment has increase since the oil boom moved into my hometown. For the month of March 2014, North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate at 2.6% and it has been steadily decreasing since 2009. The chart to the left shows the United States unemployment rate for the month of March.
Campbell, Colin J., Laherrere, Jean H. "The End Of Cheap Oil." Scientific American Mar. 1998: 78-83.
The usage of oil throughout history has helped form the world and how people live. Countries economies, world politics, and the worlds environment has all been changed by oil. Since there is such a large market for oil, world economy has been affected greatly by trades and prices. In politics, there have been both advancements and conflicts because of the world’s dependence on oil. Oil has also had different effects on the world’s environment. Overall, the dependence on oil has greatly impacted the way the world functions. Without oil, the world would not be in the state it’s in today.
Another positive from the oil fields are an increase in steady income employment; about $75,000 to $80,000 a year with training available on site. However, these jobs are very competitive and is hard to get employed now. The devastating truth is that one day we will indeed run out of oil and we will have no choice but to search for a new resource to run our vehicles and tools on. Tests and trial runs on hydrogen fuel cells are in question for a reliable method to replacing
Many have heard the phrase "Money makes the world go round", but where does money come from? The United States, like most other countries today, has a fractional reserve banking system in which only a fraction of the total money supply is held in reserve as currency. Early traders began to use gold in making transactions; they soon realized that it was both unsafe and inconvenient to carry gold and to have it weighed every time they negotiated a transaction. By the late sixteenth century, they had begun to deposit their gold with goldsmiths, who would store it in vaults for a fee. On receiving a gold deposit, the goldsmith would issue a receipt to the depositor. Soon people were paying for goods with goldsmiths' receipts, which served as the first kind of paper money. On receiving a gold deposit, the goldsmith would issue a receipt to the depositor. Soon people were paying for goods with goldsmiths' receipts, which served as the first kind of paper money. The goldsmiths observed that the amount of gold being deposited with them in any week or month was likely to exceed the amount that was being withdrawn. Someone came up with the idea that paper receipts could be issued in excess of the amount of gold held. Goldsmiths would put these receipts, which were redeemable in gold, into circulation by making interest-earning loans to merchants, producers, and consumers. Borrowers were willing to accept loans in the form of gold receipts because the receipts were accepted as a medium of exchange in the marketplace. This was the beginning of the fractional reserve system of banking, in which reserves in bank vaults are a fraction of the total money supply. The fractional reserve has two significant characteristics: money creation and reserve which is defined as Banks can create money through lending, and bank panics and regulation: Banks that operate on the basis of fractional reserves are vulnerable to "panics" or "runs" (McConnell & Brue 2005).
Unemployment refers to the total percentage of a country’s workforce that is unemployed and is looking for a paid job. The rate of unemployment is the percentage of the whole population that is actively seeking paid employment (Coyle 2). The ratio is reached at by dividing the number of jobless people by the already working individuals in the workforce. In statistics, a rising unemployment rate is an indicator of a weakening economy (Mankiw 16).On the other hand, a falling rate indicates that the economy is growing.
How does the price of oil affect the economy? Since the middle part of last century, the price of oil has become one of the contributing factors of a countries economic activity. The economist in the United States, state that the price of oil can make a direct impact on the economy. The price of oil has both a direct and indirect effect on many parts of the economy. The price of oil affects the price of gasoline, which in exchange helps the consumer make an impact on the economy. Industries in the United States also feel the effect of the price of oil both good and bad. Oil produced in the United States also has an effect on oil prices, which lead to a direct impact on the trade deficit.
Consumption is one of the basic needs of the human being. Where economic is the social science in which we study how to fulfill our basic needs with unlimited desires and scarce resources. These days’ major issue of generally any economy and particularly Pakistan economy is printing of lot of money i.e. increase in money supply. Now the question is how this increase in money supply affects the consumption expenditure in Pakistan? To get the answer of this question many scholars and authors such as Mushtaq, Ghafoor, Abedullah and Ahmed (2011), Choudhry and Noor (2009) and Zakaria (2007) examine the impact of money supply growth on consumption expenditure and found positive relationship between the both. Empirical studies by scholars like Mthuli Ncube and Eliphas Ndou (2011) have shown that there is no direct impact of money supply on consumption expenditure rather it effects the spending of consumer indirectly. Consumption can be changed due to change in interest rate i.e. initially change due to change in money supply. There are two ways through which interest rate can effect consumption expenditure one is direct and other is indirect way. Direct method shows direct impact of interest rate on consumption. The indirect method further operates in two ways. First change in interest rate has strong impact on demand of housing it means it will affect prices of housing so that shows change in wealth of household. In second steps that further lead to decrease in the consumption expenditure of people. The direct effect shows that increase in interest rate has income ...
Mast, Tom R. Over a Barrel: A Simple Guide to the Oil Shortage. Austin: Hayden, 2005. Print.
Many factors determine the supply and demand of oil in the short-term and long-term range. First, conflicts that occur in the world influence the supply and demand of oil. For instance, the onset of the United States of America Civil War brought about a surge in prices and demands of oil. It amplified the effects on the oil market by the cut-off of supplies of turpentine from the South and the introduction of a tax on alcohol, which rose from 20¢/gallon in 1862 to $2/gallon by 1865, in contrast to the 10¢/gallon tax on products derived from petroleum. Assuming a yield of about 20 gallons of oil per barrel of crude, each 10¢/gallon tax disparity on petroleum product cost of two dollars per barrel, which was a competitive advantage for oil. Because of this, the tax eliminated alcohol as a competitor to petroleum. As a result, oil production declined after 1862, even as new demand pressures grew. Other conflicts that affected the supply and demand of oil include the OPEC embargo that happened between 1973 and 1974, when Syria and Egypt attacked Israel. Others are the Iraq-Iran war between 1981 and 1986, the first P...
For commodity price, the demand and supply are directly contributing to the price volatility. The changes in interest rates and exchange rates are significant influence for commodity output and it also has impact on the commodity prices (Dornbusch 1976). For example, based on the equation of AD=C+I+G+NX. If the government expenditure increases, it will tend to