1. Introduction
Oil production in US has been experiencing fluctuation for a long period and there is a need to identify whether there has been a trend in oil production for the period from 1980 to 2008. This analysis could be of interest to the energy administration commission and the government for the purpose of planning for the amount of crude oil that can be allowed for export as well as for the purpose of planning investment in infrastructure for other energy sources. (Bp, 2013) In addition, the study will be seeking to identify the effect on accuracy of using different periods in computing moving average.
Some studies have been done with BP reporting in its 2013 energy report that US Oil production has been following a decline trend for a long time as oil production gets concentrated in areas where it commands a high value. This has also been said to be caused by an increase in coal and bio-fuels production in addition to declining oil reserves. Other causes of the decline include increased demand for renewable energy including nuclear power. (Bp, 2013) On the other hand, the moving average method’s properties hold that using smaller number of periods for the average computation provides more effective forecasting hence the need for this study to confirm the property using the US oil production case. (Makridakis & Wheelwright, 2008)
2. Data description
Data collection
Data collection for the study has been done from secondary sources where US crude oil production data has been obtained from published reports including government reports on the energy sector. Information about other studies and market views about the production has also been collected from published reports including the industry’s company reports. (...
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...s been having a declining pattern over the period of time as a result of the mentioned factors. (Makridakis & Wheelwright, 2008)
References
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Production of Crude Oil. Retrieved from, http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus1&f=a
"United States Oil - Exports - Economy." Index Mundi - Country Facts. Web. 26 May 2011. .
Simmons forecasts an increase of OPEC crude production at or around 1.0 mmbl/d after the March 27 meeting, as well as another hike of 1.5 mmbl/d at their second semi-annual in 3Q00. Their supply and demand forecast for 2000 predicts an average supply shortage of 1.2 mmbl/d, estimating supply and demand at 75.3 and 76.5 mmbl/d respectively. Supply will exceed demand most widely in 1Q00 with 3.6 mmbl/d, while easing to a surplus of 0.3 mmbl/d in 2Q00. Simmons sees 3Q00 undersupply at 1.0 mmbl/d and 4Q00 at 1.2 mmbl/d. The 2001 estimates depict OPEC production remaining stable at 29 mmbl/d, factoring in an additional 0.1 mmbl/d for possible problems with compliance. 2...
In 1908, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) predicted that the total future supply of U.S. oil would not exceed 23 billion barrels. In 1914, the U.S. Bureau of Mines predicted that only 5.7 billion barrels of oil remained. In 1920, the USGS proclaimed the peak in U.S. oil production was almost reached. In 1939, the Department of Interior declared that there was only 13 years of oil production remaining. In 1977, President Jimmy Carter claimed, “We are now running out of oil.” Despite these predictions, the U.S. has produced over 200 billion barrels of oil since the early 1900’s. (The Futurist, 1997)
• Competition in this industry is the ability to secure land rights for drilling. Government regulations have restricted areas containing crude resources for development by 40% (7). 90% o...
18. Worldwide Oil and Gas Production and Reserves, Phillips, 2000, U.S. Energy Information Administration, 3 May 2004, <http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/finance/mergers/ptprod.html>
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Oklahoma's oil and natural gas industry is giving us unstoppable progress for energy solutions, but the other parts of the nation are still searching for theirs. While providing jobs for the thousands of people who live in Oklahoma, the oil and natural gas industry not only donates to America's petroleum production, but it also produces millions of dollars for our state’s economy, schools, and roads. Making new headways in our industry every day, artificial technology, scientific breakthroughs, adequate new exploration, and drilling methods took place. Without these upgrades, we would not be able to extract oil and natural gas from challenging fields more efficiently than we can now. As capability rises, environmental impact will continue to go down. In 1897, a tower of surging oil divided the Bartlesville sky. Oklahoma's preliminary drilling swaged badly, brought forth by the federal controls on wellhead prices of natural gas applied to interstate commerce in the 1950s. By 1982, oil prices hit an all time high of $37.60 per barrel. Furthermore, the number of progressive drilling rigs in Oklahoma also hit a record of 882. The total quantity produced from the soul and natural gas industry in Oklahoma reached about 40 billion dollars in 2007. Also, through the gross production tax, oil and natural gas producers and royalty owners gave more than 2 billion dollars to Oklahoma used for teacher retirement, public schools, wildlife management, bridges, roads, and state colleges. Petroleum remains an indispensable Sooner State industry. Natural gas continued to grow in the early 1990s despite of the entire staggering bust that was caused by the plummeting world crude oil p...
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Inglesby, Tommy. Jenks, Rob. Nyquist, Scott. Pinner, Dickon. “Shale gas and tight oil: Framing the opportunities and risks.” McKinsey & Company (2012): Pg 30-35. Web. 3 Feb. 2015.
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