Abstract
Companies forecast in different ways and for different reasons. For the sake of my current employer, some of the reasons to why they forecast is to ensure that there are plenty of cellular phones in stock or even to make sure that the company has enough numbers to assign to customers when they purchase wireless service from us. The following paper will compare and contrast various forecasting methods while also elaborating on the method that my current employer use for forecasting sales and mobile identification number (MDN) requirements.
Forecasting Assignment
Forecasting is the ability to plan ahead for future expectations of what the future may hold. For example, business forecast every year for what they feel that particular company should accomplish. A sales department forecasts how many sales not only the department should do as a hole but how many sales each individual sales representative should also do. Every year, meteorologists forecast the number of hurricanes that may or may not hit the United States as well as other countries. The above leaves me to ask, what is forecasting? In a lack of words, forecasting is predicting what may or may not happen in the future. The forecast could simply be about sales of automobiles, wireless services or the number and strengths of hurricanes. Forecasting is defined as "to calculate or predict some future event or condition, as a result of study and analysis of pertinent data." (15c, Unknown) There are four basic types of forecasting qualitative, casual relationships, simulation and time series analysis. The following paper will compare and contrast forecasting methods and discuss t...
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References
Arsham. H. (2003). Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Techniques. Retrieved online February 1, 2006 from http://www.elia.jde.aca.mmu.ac.uk/resdesgn/arsham/opre330Forecast.htm#rasofm
Author Unknown. (15c) Retrieved online from https://ecampus.phoenix.edu Pro Request library on Monday, January 31, 2006.
Chase, R., Jacobs F. & Aquilano N. (2005) Operations Management for Competitive Advantage. 11th Edition.
Jensen, P. (2004). Operations Management/Industrial Engineering. Retrieved online from http://www.me.utexas.edu/~jensen./ORMM/omie/opearation/unit/forecast.
Wales, J. (2006). Delphi Method. Retrieved online January 31, 2006 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method
Operations management is essential for the survival and success of any organization. According to Heizer & Render (2011), operations management (OM) is the set of activities that creates value in the form of goods and services by transforming inputs into outputs. Operations managers today contend with competition, globalization, inflation, consumer demand, and consistent change in technology. Managers must focus on the efficiency and effectiveness of processes such as cost, dependability, distribution, flexibility, and speed. The intent of this paper is to discuss the processes and operations management of the Kroger Company.
J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy, “Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons”. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, pp. 69–80, 1992.
Addressing the trials of operating in a continually changing environment and realizing forecasts can only
Management experience will also play a large role in the success of the forecast. The current team is quite new and will gain some needed experience over the next year in the hopes of staying on track for success. The ability of management to ensure product is readily available for the client, their training techniques with new and seasoned associates, and general management style will ensure success or spell defeat for the store.
Use forecasting tools to prepare accurate forecasts for CMO and measure forecast accuracy every three months.
54). The first step in forecasting is to develop the opportunity or threat with different alternative conclusions, which is most useful when using a brainstorming method (Ginter et al., 2013, p. 54). In addition, there is a need to identify the associations between the tendencies, changes, predicaments, and or likelihood of events and the environmental categories (Ginter et al., 2013, p. 54), such as the judicial/political environment of the Affordable Care Act. In doing so, it will allow management to see the possibilities of how these issues can affect the future of the company. In turn, this allows the management team to build a better strategic plan, so that the healthcare business has longevity in the fast-paced environment. However, one must assess all the information proposed from the scanning, monitoring, and forecasting of the potential threats or opportunities to the healthcare
... (such as linear regression and logistic regression) or forecasting techniques (such as neural networks and survival analysis) can be used to determine a given result, such as demand forecasting or customer attraction through direct marketing and evaluate their responses.
Bower, P. (2005). 12 MOST COMMON THREATS TO SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING PROCESS. Journal Of Business Forecasting, 24(3), 4-14
Schonberger, R.J. and E.M. Knod Jr. Operations Management: Continuous Improvement. Richard D. Irwin, 1994, p. 44. 16. Selto, F.H. and D.W. Jasinski. "
Slack, N. & Lewis, M. (2011) Operations strategy. 3rd ed. Harlow : Financial Times Prentice Hall.
Operations management is a dynamic field and presents exciting new issues and challenges for operations managers. For example, Maura Sprenger, human resources director at Techno Inc., a fast growing information technology company, is faced with a very difficult issue between winning a multimillion dollar business contract with Apex Company or run the risk of causing a very knowledgeable and valuable employee to quit.
The weather forecasters use probability and statistics just as much if not more than any other field on earth. As weather patterns are not fully understood and are dynamic, analysts have to rely heavily on past weather systems and patterns to “guess'; or estimate the possibility of present weather systems to behave in similar manners. If the probability of its behavior, subject to certain factors, in one manner over another is high forecasters make decisions as to how to advise the public.
Studying pre-existing models of operations management may be a smart approach to truly understand this field. But since technology is advancing by the minute, new concepts, and tools should be adapted for operations management. The book titled Operations Management strategically explains the different concepts, divisions, and approaches to operations management. References Encarta (2005) Definitions of Operations Management. Retrieved September 15, 2005.
Slack, N., Johnston, R. and Brandon-Jones, A. (2011).Essentials of operations management. 1st ed. Harlow, England: Financial Times Prentice Hall.
In every organization, different operational functions exist to ensure the smooth learning of the organization. In order for an individual to have the knowhow on how to operate the functions delegated to them they must have implicit knowledge on the functionalities themselves. Understanding markets, customers and the company goals has always proven to be a core starting point for individuals who ply their trade in the organization. The essence of the skills is evident in globalization, cooperate social responsibility and risk management issues. In operations management, the basic principles of operations should be followed to ensure that the profitability of the organization ensures the operation of the organization is