The Bayesian Theory of Confirmation, Idealizations and Approximations in Science ABSTRACT: My focus in this paper is on how the basic Bayesian model can be amended to reflect the role of idealizations and approximations in the confirmation or disconfirmation of any hypothesis. I suggest the following as a plausible way of incorporating idealizations and approximations into the Bayesian condition for incremental confirmation: Theory T is confirmed by observation P relative to background knowledge where I is the conjunction of idealizations and approximations used in deriving the prediction PT from T, PD expresses the discrepancy between the prediction PT and the actual observation P, and stands for logical entailment. This formulation has the virtue of explicitly taking into account the essential use made of idealizations and approximations as well as the fact that theoretically based predictions that utilize such assumptions will not, in general, exactly fit the data. A non-probabilistic analogue of the confirmation condition above that I offer avoids the 'old evidence problem, which has been a headache for classical Bayesianism. Idealizations and approximations like point-masses, perfectly elastic springs, parallel conductors crossing at infinity, assumptions of linearity, of "negligible" masses, of perfectly spherical shapes, are commonplace in science. Use of such simplifying assumptions as catalysts in the process of deriving testable predictions from theories complicates our picture of confirmation and disconfirmation. Underlying the difficulties is the fact that idealizing and approximating assumptions are already known to be false statements, and yet they are often indispensable when testing theories for truth. This aspect of theory testing has been long neglected or misunderstood by philosophers. In standard hypothetico-deductive, bootstrapping and Bayesian accounts of confirmation, idealizations and approximations are simply ignored. My focus in this paper is on how the basic Bayesian model can be amended to reflect the role of idealizations and approximations in the confirmation or disconfirmation of an hypothesis. I suggest the following as a plausible way of incorporating idealizations and approximations into the Bayesian condition for incremental confirmation: Theory T is confirmed by observation P relative to background knowledge where I is the conjunction of idealizations and approximations used in deriving the prediction PT from T, PD expresses the discrepancy between the prediction PT and the actual observation P, and stands for logical entailment. This formulation has the virtue of explicitly taking into account the essential use made of idealizations and approximations as well as the fact that theoretically based predictions that utilize such assumptions will not, in general, exactly fit the data.
Kot, Greg. 'The Marshall Mathers LP2' Review." Chicago Tribune. 03 Nov. 2013. Web. 04 Apr. 2014.
In all colleges in the United States, students are required to pay for their classes’ tuition either by themselves, their parents, guardians or a scholarship that they may have. The average tuition fee for an individu...
Some Americans now ask, "Was the moon landing a hoax?" Is this actually possible; would the U.S. government lie to our nation, let alone the whole world? The answer, no, should jump out. Hoax believers (HBs) thought they researched this thoroughly and gained enough evidence to prove that the moon landing was a hoax, but they don't know jack! Their whole case can be compared to a brick house with one difference. It seems like the bricks have all the corners, sides, and shape of a house. The evidence seems to be very strong, but the bricks are only one dimensional. All the "supposed" evidence crumbles after a little research. In this report I will show HBs falsified case along with the truth.
Reliabilism, an epistemological theory created to combat skepticism, claims that a person knows that p if and only if (1) p is true, (2) this person believes that p is true, and that (3) this person has come to the conclusion p via a reliable belief-forming process. A “reliable belief-forming process” could simply be a perceptive act, since reliabilism entails externalism. Externalism claims that you can have knowledge despite not knowing how you came about it (knowing the evidence), exactly. For example, imagine a boy sitting on the beach. He sees a woman walking past him no more than twenty feet away and forms the belief that there is a woman walking past him. Now, he many not exactly understand how he reached that belief, especially when it comes to cognitive processes involved, but nevertheless the fact that his perceptual processes worked reliably justifies his belief. Reliabilism’s analysis is also consistent with fallibilism, which claims that people can be incorrect in their beliefs and still be justified in their beliefs. Once again, consider the boy on the beach. His perceptual processes have consistently served him correctly; for these processes to fail and deceive him would be extremely unlikely, rendering his belief justified even if he were somehow wrong in his belief.
He is a man who revolutionizes the hip-hop and the pop culture eternally, he epitomizes cultural interbreed, he rules the rap world and creates a bizarre perception, and his name is Eminem, otherwise known as Marshal Bruce Mathers III (Eminem: Biographical”maybe introduce the source at the start of the information). He changed his name to one of the most well known rap stars in 1996. Eminem was born on October 17, 1972 in Missouri (“Eminem:mm52”). He moved to a town named Warren and grew up there as a poor child with no real guidance. He was constantly staying with his relatives while his mom was jobless or too into her pill habits to take care of him. When Eminem was twelve, his mother finally settled down in Detroit, Michigan. As a teenager, Eminem mainly found himself on streets by his high school, Osburne High, listening to rap music by LL Cool J and Run DMC. At school he would start fighting with other school mates, and he quickly received the reputation of a witty free styled writer ...
With student debt at an all-time high, parents want loans to be a last resort when in need of money for their child’s college tuition. “Money is a major concern for many high school students (and their parents) who are weighing college options” (Austin). Debt is a serious matter and is a hard thing to pay back. Another controversy with college tuition is not every person gets to have the chance to attend college. With colleges having a monthly payment plan, there could be a possibility that more students would have the ability to experience college and more would graduate with less debt. Rather than the necessity of having the whole college tuition for that school year, students would b...
Despite taste in music, age or nationality, everyone is bound to know the famous rapper, Eminem. Many eagerly awaited his return to the music industry; while some hoped to never see his name on the charts again. After a long break from the industry, Eminem made his return in 2010, rising to the top of the charts once again. Critics have claimed his lyrical content is inappropriate and effects the nation’s youth negatively, but his fans argue that he and his 2010 return have been a source of inspiration and encouragement in their lives.
Confirmation bias is the act of assuming or favoring information based on personal beliefs or theories. As we live in a surprising world where a lot of unbelievable and shocking things happen, we are more than likely, as human beings motivated by personal beliefs and wishful thinking, to jump into conclusion based on those ideas and concepts.
The Health Belief Model tries to explain and predict one’s health behaviors. I feel that although doctors take precautionary actions and provide helpful preventative information that not everyone takes the information and uses it wisely. Although there are actions we can take to prevent illness or health conditions, not everyone applies these preventative actions to their daily lives. The Health Belief Model is also still relevant today because people are still avoiding treatment and/or are also not utilizing new technology and the availability of these tests to detect a disease early on in their
As one of the world’s most successful musicians, Marshall Mathers is the target of intense controversy. Mathers, better known by his stage name Eminem, is often written off as violent, misogynistic, and homophobic. Activist groups have picketed his concerts, parents have condemned his songs, and countries like Canada and Australia have even tried cancel his concerts. However, underneath the controversy, Mathers has revolutionized hip hop, turning it into a mainstream form of music. Mathers’ story indicates how artists must ultimately work without fear of controversy because that conflict indicates the presence of creativity and open thinking, which are both necessary for the progress of art. Thus, artists must forge on, working their craft despite criticism.
Conspiracists have been able to sustain the public interest for over 40 years, standing strong on their accusations. Some believe that the US government did it as a desperate attempt to beat the Russians in the Space Race and that it was filmed in Hollywood or Area 51. The photos from the moon landing provide evidence that supports these theories. For example, the flag’s movement in the photo shows the presence of wind, which is not possible in space. Some theorists even believe that other astronauts who were claimed to be killed in a fire while testing equipment for for the moon mission were actually executed because the government defeated they would disclose the truth. A 1999 poll shows that 6-20% of Americans believed the moon landing was fake, while 5% were undecided.
Assigning a subjective prior probability to the ultimate hypothesis is unreliable. This is because prior probabilities are often determined from past information or past events that may have slightly different parameters e.g. the probability of being guilty of murder given a history of domestic abuse and the probability of being guilty of murder given no history of domestic abuse have different parameters and thus cannot be seen as the same event. Prior probabilities could also be purely determined by an expert’s subjective assessment, which are subjected to flaws.
Lanius, R. D. (2010). Denying the Apollo moon landings: Conspiracy and questioning in modern American history. 48th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting Including the New Horizons Forum and Aerospace Exposition (pp. 1-16). Orlando: Smithsonian Institution.
Singapore has grown from being level with the rest of the world average in the 1950s and 1960s to a steady rise in growth starting in the 1970s all the way up to 2008. Singapore has rapidly began to close the gap between them and the United States as far GDP per capita is concerned, and with this begs the question to what is going on with Singapore’s economy? Mitchell states that Singapore has found that a “small government and free markets are a recipe for strong growth and rising levels of prosperity”. Singapore has found this as the best way for them to thrive and they have taken this to full advantage as they have slowly climbed to the tops of the charts of the worlds’ economies and have not looked as though they have turned back. (Mitchell