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Critical evaluation of project
Project planning and evaluation
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Theoretical background: Project valuation
There are only two elements to determine an investment valuation using NPV approach: the difference between present value of the investment’s cash flows and the investment cost that are discounted by the risk-free rate or time value of money. The project should commence if it has a positive NPV, otherwise it should be abandoned.
The net present value (NPV) approach assumes the investment opportunity is a now-or-never decision, and once the investment is undertaken, there is no scope for managers to react to new information and to change course. It may undervalue the project by suppressing the value of flexibility embedded within many options.
Real options analysis as a tool for making investment decision is taking into account uncertainty and building flexibility in the system. In the real option analysis, more elements are drawn as follows: 1) the time elapsed until the option is no longer valid or time to expiration, 2) the volatility of the returns to the investment or underlying risky asset. It offers a supplement to the NPV method that considers managerial flexibility in making decisions regarding the real assets of the firm.
A real option analysis always starts from the standard NPV analysis. In fact, the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) approach is a special case of the real option analysis, evaluating the project as if no flexibility is present. It is therefore vital to start real option analysis to correct standard NPV valuation. The total value of a project is expressed by the following formula. (Luehrman, 1998)
Project value=NPV+Flexibility
DCF and NPV
The main approach in traditional financial method to value a project is the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. This model is...
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...wnian motion is described by: dS_t=μS_t dt+σS_t dW_t
Where W_t is a Wiener process or Brownian motion, μ (the percentage drift) and σ (the percentage volatility) are constants.
The price of a call option in a risk-neutral world is obtained as:
Value of call options=[N(d_1 )×P]-[N(d_2 )×PV (EX)]
Where
d_1=(log (P/PV(EX) ))/(σ√t)+(σ√t)/2 d_2=d_1-σ√t N(d)=Cumulative normal probability density function
EX=Exercise price of option,
PV(EX) is calculated by discounting at the risk-free interest rate r_f t= Number of periods to exercise date
P=Price of the stock now σ=Standard deviation per period of (continuously compounded) rate of return
The principal assumption behind Black-Scholes model is that returns are of lognormal distribution; besides, there are a number of other assumptions which may lead to wrong results for critical cases. (Kodukula & Papudesu, 2006)
Star Appliance is looking to expand their product line and is considering three different projects: dishwashers, garbage disposals, and trash compactors. We want to determine which project would be worth doing by determining if they will add value to Star. Thus, the project(s) that will add the most value to Star Appliance will be worth pursuing. The current hurdle rate of 10% should be re-evaluated by finding the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Then by forecasting the cash flows of each project and discounting them by the WACC to find the net present value, or by solving for the internal rate of return, we should be able to see which projects Star should undertake.
Earlier 2002, the stock price of Agnico-Eagle Mines sharply decreased by $1 finally closed at $13.89. This price has reached one of the lowest level, from the company's historical perspective. As a professional equity portfolio manager, who has a large number of AEM stocks on hand. Acker and his team are necessary to find a proper way to estimated the fair value of AEM as well as its equity. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) has been chosen to do this job. The theory behind DCF valuation approach is that the firm's value can be estimated by using the expected future free cash flow discounted by an appropriate discounted rate (Koller etc 2005). However several assumptions need to be clearly examined within this approach. The following sections are showing the process of DCF step by step.
...eting tool that show the differences between the present value of revenues and the present value of expenses. The project can be profitable when the net present value is positive. In other words, the present value of revenues is greater than the present value of expenses. Profitability index is another tool for evaluating investment projects, which is the ratio of the PV of benefits on the PV of costs. A project can be beneficial if the profitability index is greater than 1. Also, it has the same idea as NPV that In other words, the present value of benefits is greater than the present value of costs. However, these two methods (NPV and Profitability Index) have been used to evaluate the proposal of implementing EHR.
appraisal whereby future inflows and outflows of cash associated with a particular project are expressed in present-da...
...R and was determined to be favorable. Assuming that the numbers used to calculate WACC and IRR are accurate or conservative, the 7E7 project should be successful if the risk factors are effectively controlled by Boeing. However, the most important factor in determining if a project should go forward or not is the NPV of the project. If the project has a positive NPV, then the project generally should go forward. For the Boeing 7E7 project, the NPV is $5,266,550,000 using the cash flow data provided through 2037. The NPV is based on the premise that the forecasted cash flow for the 7E7 project is accurate. According to the NPV, Boeing should go forward with the project as it will add value to the stock based on the data collected, with no indication that the 7E7 project will interfere with other projects already in progress or potential projects up for consideration.
Spokane Industries has contracted Franklin Electronics for an 18 month product development contract. Franklin Electronics is new to using project management methodologies and has not been exposed to earned value management methodologies. Even though Franklin and Spokane have worked together in the past, they have mainly used fixed-price contracts with little to no stipulations. For this project, Spokane Industries is requiring Franklin Electronics to use formalized project management methodologies, earned value cost schedules, and schedules for reports and meetings. Since Franklin Electronics had no experience with earned value management, the cost accounting group was trained in the methodology in order to bid for the project.
There are two common valuation approaches, the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method and the relative valuation method, also known as multiples. Although they are both generally applied tools for effective investment decision making, they differ in the way they estimate the value of an asset.
Values obtained can be a reliable indicator of the value of the Company for a minority investment (i.e., a non-control investment)
...of money and the value of cash flows in future periods. In addition, the NPV approach has no significant flaws (Kaplan Higher Education Study Guide, 2015, p. 94) and is the desired method for appraising projects because it considers risk and the time value of money, and has no random cut-off. NPV is easy to use, easily comparable, and customizable. Only if all alternatives are discounted to the same point in time, NPV allows for simple comparison between investment alternatives. It provides clear-cut decision suggestion for investments. The NPV rule also effortlessly handles both mutually exclusive and independent projects compared to IRR which can’t be used for exclusive projects or those of different period of time, IRR may exaggerate the rate of return and also profitability index which may not give the right choice when used to compare mutually exclusive projects.
Investments and projects will are used interchangeably. All projects are investments (although not always financial) (APM, 2006) and all investments are projects. They are unique, transient endeavours. (Kerzner, 2006) Pertinent questions, which are analysed and answered throughout a project (or investment) include: (1) Will this make a profit? (2) What will the profit be? (3) What are the financial timescales? (Kerzner, 2006)
The correlation with the stand-alone risk calculation provides a simple method to compare the risk of a new project or multiple projects. The stand-alone risk is compared to the average risk of the not-for profit business’s corporate risk. In a for-profit business the stand-alone risk is compared to the risk of an investor in the stock market. Without this correlation it would be impossible to compare one project to another. The exception to the correlation occurs when the returns are expected to be independent to the business’s average risk or is negatively correlated with the business’s average project. In these cases the risk may be understated by the stand-alone risk
Capital Asset Pricing Model is believed to be the first equilibrium asset pricing model t...
The decision of whether to accept or deny an investment project as part of a company's growth initiatives, involves determining the investment rate of return that such a project will generate. Capital budgeting is a step by step process that businesses use to determine the merits of an investment project. Whenever making an investment decision whether big or small it is imperative that we take into account the numerous risks and costs involved in it. Without conducting sufficient research on this it is highly dangerous, not to mention potentially lethal for the organization it self to go right ahead and bluntly invest without taking the customary precautions. For any investment that is about to take place business managers have a variety of methods to employ to assess the type, and quantity of risks and benefits involved in adopting that particular decision. It is highly recommended that any business manager no matter how experienced and learned actively employ these techniques and methods to save his business from potentially going bankrupt or ending up getting mired in any other disaster of the like.
Different methods can be used in the evaluation; however, the major criteria used in evaluation should center on success factors like: efficiency, customer impact and satisfaction, business and direct success, and future potential (Mantel 273-274). The project should also be evaluated based upon the reasons why the project was selected in the first place, contributions to overall business goals, team member goals accomplished, and other factors that contributed to the strengths and weaknesses of the project. The true problem can lie in measuring the evaluation, especially when looking at earned values and expenditures. Therefore, it is important for the team to determine the measurement criteria before the project starts.