Error in Human Reasoning
Although humans are the only animals that reason, we do not follow probability theory, a normative model, very closely in our everyday reasoning. The conjunction fallacy is one of the major errors that humans commit when dealing with problems that involve probability. Exemplified by Linda the feminist bank teller, this problem occurs when we assume that a conjunction of two premises is more likely than one or more of the premises alone. According to probability, the conjunction of two premises can never be more probable than either of the premises alone. In the Linda problem, the subjects are given a brief biographical description of Linda, followed by several statements about Linda's current occupation or activities. The subjects are then asked to rank the statements in order of most likely to least likely. The majority of the subjects choose "Linda is a bank teller and a feminist" (T and F) as more likely than "Linda is a bank teller." (F) (Barron, pg. 138)
According to the laws of probability, T must be more probable than the combination of T and F. Thus, the question arises as to why we reason this way. As Professor Kellman explained in his lectures, we commit this fallacy because of our association of the word "feminist" with the biographical description of Linda. Apparently, we ignore the most basic laws of probability, and rely on our ability to associate certain characteristics with likely careers and hobbies of an individual.
Ever since the original study by Tversky and Kahnerman in 1983, it has been assumed that human reasoning prefers association of terms in lieu of mathematical probabilities in these situations. There is debate, however, as to whether this is a fallacy i...
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... her in a way that eventually violates the conjunction rule. We do not see Linda as a bank teller who has forgotten her days of social activism. We want to believe that she is still an activist. Therefore, we ignore the probabilities of randomness, and make the selection that is most compatible with the biographical sketch. As Hertwig and Gigerenzer have pointed out in their study, we do not infer mathematical probabilities when asked to make judgments about characters of individuals, most notably, Linda, the feminist banker.
Works Cited
Baron, Jonathan. Thinking and Deciding. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
Hertwig, Ralph, and Gigerenzer, Gerd. The 'Conjunction Fallacy' Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 275-305.
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Furthermore, the authors aim to unfold the scientific logic of their analysis of the effects of hidden biases so people will be “better able to achieve the alignment,” between their behavior and intentions (Banaji and Greenwald, 2013) preface
Test of the “harmless error” rule. Law and Human Behavior Vol. 21, No. 1, p.
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...rought into the case would treat it as though it were a completely rational occurrence. But then again, this is perhaps more of a fault of my own than of the authors.
logical that a person is less likely to commit a given act if by doing so he
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Bennett, J., Briggs, W., & Triola, M. (2014). Statistical reasoning: For everyday life (14th ed.). Boston: Pearson Education, Inc.
Higgins, Tory. “Self-Discrepancy Theory: What Patterns of Self-Beliefs Cause People to Suffer?”(1989). Advances in Experimental Social psychology, Vol.22 (1989):93-136. Academic Press Inc.
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