Counterfactualism in History

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Counterfactualism in History A point made in the third of these essays, on the value of history, was the widespread human enjoyment of a good story. It was suggested that history played a part in satisfying this need. The consistent success of fiction based on a simple form of counterfactual history — Robert Harris's "Fatherland" is a good recent example — seems to indicate that this type of history is equally appealing. Sometimes known as "what if", or "alternative" history, or, in the title of a recent collection of serious counterfactual essays edited by Niall Ferguson, "virtual history", it takes as its starting point some historical event, assumes that it turned out differently — Harold wins at Hastings or Napoleon at Waterloo — and develops a possible course of events from then on. All of this has great potential for some intriguing speculation, particularly so in the case of events within living memory, as shown by Harris's bestseller. However is that all that can be said for counterfactual history? Is it no more than a supply of good storylines for novelists, shading perhaps into something not unlike science fiction? It certainly does do these things, no doubt thereby adding to the gaiety of nations, but I believe that there are some more serious points to be made in its favour, and that it is a wider concept than what has just been described. We shall however have to attempt to deal with some highly unfavourable opinions of counterfactualism held by many professional historians. Consideration of these views may in fact help us to a better understanding of the true meaning of counterfactualism. I think there is certainly one dimension of alternative history which has as much philosophical content as merely fic... ... middle of paper ... ...ledge about the history of our planet and its lifeforms calls for an approach in which the examination of countless possible alternatives plays an essential part. So although we should probably concede that counterfactual history of the purely "might have been" kind may be more suited to fiction than to serious historiography, its main benefit lying in its entertainment value, we should still maintain that there are forms of counterfactual thinking which are of very real value to the historian. In addition to the use of the concept as an aid to understanding the evolutionary past which we have just mentioned, other benefits include not only understanding what alternatives would have been considered by historical agents, but also the possibility of making reasonable assessments of what would have been the likely outcomes of decisions which in fact were not made.

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